have used to post here about the prediction for the electoral college had his site attacked last night. He forecasted a Kerry win and within two hours the site was attacked!
Too funny the guy who has the website that both Scott and Myself
- Thread starter Master Capper
- Start date
That is funny. I am sure it would have been attacked if he forcasted a Bush win as well.
I think BUSH wins. He has the momentum in FL and Ohio.
I think BUSH wins. He has the momentum in FL and Ohio.
Don't know about FLA but I wouldn't say he has the momentum in Ohio especially the industrial northern part. Scott, the funny thing is that this guy is not even a resident of THE US!
Scott4USC said:
How do you figure? Somebody leaked that Kerry has a 4 point lead with the early voters. Even if that's not totally accurate, the east coast of the state (West Palm, Boca Raton, Fort Lauderdale, Miami) is going to have a record turnout and it's heavily democratic. Going to be very close, I think, but certainly no signs of Bush 'momentum'.
Him not being a resident in the U.S. is real funny. :142lmao:
The polls favor Bush in Ohio so if there is any momentum you have to favor BUSH. In addition, Republicans have a MUCH higher voter turnout than democrats. Lastly, 97% of republicans will be voting for Bush. Not the same % for Kerry and the war on terror will change democratic votes towards Bush! Just my opinion.
Ohio ( 20 Electoral Votes)
Zogby | Bush +6
FOX News | - Bush +3
SurveyUSA | Bush +2
CNN/USAT/Gallup | Kerry +4
Ohio Poll/UofC | Bush +0.9
Mason-Dixon | Bush +2
Rasmussen | Bush +4
Clev. Plain Dealer - Bush +3
The polls favor Bush in Ohio so if there is any momentum you have to favor BUSH. In addition, Republicans have a MUCH higher voter turnout than democrats. Lastly, 97% of republicans will be voting for Bush. Not the same % for Kerry and the war on terror will change democratic votes towards Bush! Just my opinion.
Ohio ( 20 Electoral Votes)
Zogby | Bush +6
FOX News | - Bush +3
SurveyUSA | Bush +2
CNN/USAT/Gallup | Kerry +4
Ohio Poll/UofC | Bush +0.9
Mason-Dixon | Bush +2
Rasmussen | Bush +4
Clev. Plain Dealer - Bush +3
Kosar here were the latest FL polls. Doesn't mean Bush wins or not, but I say he had the momentum. As for the early voters, I have heard Bush is ahead. So who really knows. I would be suprised if FL goes to Kerry.
Florida ( 27 Electoral Votes)
Zogby | TIE
FOX News | Kerry +5
SurveyUSA | Bush +1
Insdr Adv | TIE
Quinnipiac | Bush +8
CNN/USAT/Gallup | Kerry +3
Rasmussen | Bush +3
Mason-Dixon | Bush +4
Florida ( 27 Electoral Votes)
Zogby | TIE
FOX News | Kerry +5
SurveyUSA | Bush +1
Insdr Adv | TIE
Quinnipiac | Bush +8
CNN/USAT/Gallup | Kerry +3
Rasmussen | Bush +3
Mason-Dixon | Bush +4
Scott,
What your not factoring in is the Get out the Vote in Ohio as these people are not showing up in the polls that you are citing. The reasons these people are not showing up is that they have no past voting record and many have abandoned land line phones for cell phones which have not been used by pollsters. I can almost guarantee that Kerry wins the Northern Part of Ohio but Bush will win the Southern areas so it all comes down to whom gets out the vote better. If Bush had Ohio in the bag he would not waste his time coming to Columbus this afternoon to stump as he would spend his time in anpther battleground state.
What your not factoring in is the Get out the Vote in Ohio as these people are not showing up in the polls that you are citing. The reasons these people are not showing up is that they have no past voting record and many have abandoned land line phones for cell phones which have not been used by pollsters. I can almost guarantee that Kerry wins the Northern Part of Ohio but Bush will win the Southern areas so it all comes down to whom gets out the vote better. If Bush had Ohio in the bag he would not waste his time coming to Columbus this afternoon to stump as he would spend his time in anpther battleground state.
Scott,
Those polls you cite don't show any momentum. They pretty much show a dead heat. But even aside from that, see Master Cappers response about getting out the vote.
And where did you 'hear' that Bush leads with the 2.5 million early voters?
Those polls you cite don't show any momentum. They pretty much show a dead heat. But even aside from that, see Master Cappers response about getting out the vote.
And where did you 'hear' that Bush leads with the 2.5 million early voters?
I said I think Bush has the momentum and I gave my reasons why I think that. You rightfully can disagree.
Kosar here is where I read it. Does not mean the info is correct. Read this yesterday and someone else mentioned Bush led with early voting.
From Harris Polling:
Many voters have already voted
One of the several differences between this and previous elections is that
almost a quarter of all the votes will have been cast early, mostly by mail.
In 2000 we found that eight percent (8%) of voters cast their vote early.
Now we estimate that approximately 24 percent of all this year's votes have
already been cast. These voters have given an early 50 to 44 percent lead to
President Bush over Senator Kerry.
From CBS's poll:
Early voters split about evenly, one-third each between Democrats, Republicans and Independents. They are a bit older: one-quarter are 65 or over, and eight in ten are above age 45. President Bush holds a lead among them.
Kosar here is where I read it. Does not mean the info is correct. Read this yesterday and someone else mentioned Bush led with early voting.
From Harris Polling:
Many voters have already voted
One of the several differences between this and previous elections is that
almost a quarter of all the votes will have been cast early, mostly by mail.
In 2000 we found that eight percent (8%) of voters cast their vote early.
Now we estimate that approximately 24 percent of all this year's votes have
already been cast. These voters have given an early 50 to 44 percent lead to
President Bush over Senator Kerry.
From CBS's poll:
Early voters split about evenly, one-third each between Democrats, Republicans and Independents. They are a bit older: one-quarter are 65 or over, and eight in ten are above age 45. President Bush holds a lead among them.
even with republicans intimidating voters at polling centers(illegal) the heavy turn out gives kerry a 6% minimum edge + voter backlash against these bullies. if you don't live in ohio-penn-fla, you might as well stay home
