USC to win the National Championship bet

[Scott4USC]

I just placed 2 wagers on USC to win the NC in addition to my already large wager on USC ($1,500 to win 12k on USC to win NC)

Betwwts
$500 to win $1000
$1000 to win $1600

Right now the line is +160 at betwwts for USC to win the NC. I got it +200 and +160. This is a VERY solid wager IMO.

USC plays, AT Oregon St., Arizona, UCLA, and ND. USC not only has a talent advantage but a coaching advantage over all 4 remaining opponents. The last 2 games are rivalry games so it is very unlikely USC takes either UCLA or ND lightly. Why is this bet so good?

If USC wins their 4 remaining games, USC goes to the Orange Bowl. If USC goes to the Orange Bowl, USC "most likely" will be favored to win, and maybe as much as a TD. If you have USC +160 and are not so confident in USC winning, you "easily" could hedge/middle.

I am 95% confident USC makes it to the Orange Bowl provided Leinart does not suffer any injury. Worry about getting there vs winning it. Once USC gets to the Orange Bowl you have few options to play around with and I think most would be in your favor.

This is great value and I highly suggest you jump on it now at betwwts. Pinnacal has USC +111.

My breakdown explaining why I am so confident.

I do not think there is a better defense than USC in the country. Carroll said this is his best and deepest defense since he has been at USC. USC defense the last 2 years has played lights out and this is supposed to be Carrolls best defense! That is my opinion and what Carroll has stated and 25% reason why I think USC wins the NC.

25% is USC offense is very good and getting better every week. That is important and a big trend with Carroll and Chow. USC team gets better each and every week. So if USC plays in the Orange Bowl, you can be confident USC will be playing their best football. (done this the last 2 years in dominating fashion).

25% is USC has a coaching advantage over every opponent they face. Some might disagree but I do not think any team has a tandom like Carroll and Chow + staff.

Then the last 25% in my confidence is USC has been tested this season. USC played on the road and won and played and beat CAL. OU and AU DO NOT have a better offense or QB or OC than CAL. USC only gave up 17 pts to CAL. If USC faces AU or OU, Carroll and Chow will have a month to install new plays and blitz schemes. Do not underestimate this factor.

Remember, AU and OU have NOT faced an offense or even a defense that is as good as USC. Think about that. Gonna be a big suprise for both AU and OU in the Orange Bowl. Now AU and OU both have solid O's and D's but I think CAL has a better O than both and "maybe" even a better D (although AU prob. has a better defense). On the negative side, both AU and OU have a passing and rushing attack and that is the key to beating USC. If you are one dimensional you have no chance. So that would be my only concern facing AU or OU in the Orange Bowl if USC is fortunate enough to make it.

Good luck to anybody who follows this play! Very high probability USC makes it to the Orange Bowl and then you can decide to keep the wager or hedge/middle a portion of it.

PENDING WAGER(S)
Wager Type Team (s) Risking To Win
PROPOSITION 2005 ORANGE BOWL [838] USC +200 $500.00 $1,000.00
PROPOSITION 2005 ORANGE BOWL [838] USC +160 $500.00 $800.00
PROPOSITION 2005 ORANGE BOWL [838] USC +160 $500.00 $800.00
TOTAL 3 WAGER(S) $1,500.00 $2,600.00

 

[gman2]

USC plays, AT Oregon St., Arizona, UCLA, and ND. USC not only has a talent advantage but a coaching advantage over all 4 remaining opponents.

i would be remiss if i didnt at least bring up the absurdity of a post you made about coaching somewhere in the mlb thread where you referenced your usc bet.

now as you know, i think youre a smart guy. sound logic and sound capping ability.

but when you said you like usc over oklahoma because of the usc coaching edge, i wanted to come through the computer screen and smack you so hard you would be out of commission and unable to surf the california waves for a full month.

bob stoops is the best coach in the country and his staff (even sans brother stoops) is still as good as you will find both offensively and defensively with long, pelini, et al.

i repeat: bob stoops is the best coach in the country.

im not arguing that oklahoma would beat usc. im not debating the outcome of that hypothetical matchup. im just saying no way does usc hold any coaching edge.

 

[bbk]

Totally agree gman; USC has been outcoached in the tech game; the Cal game by far and the 1st half of the stanford game; Carroll is a good coach and would put him somewhere like the 6 or 7th best coach in the nation but the coaching job he has done this year has not been impressive at all.

 

[Scott4USC]

gman2

I respect you and your opinion as well. Anybody here can make a STRONG argument Stoops is the best coach in the country. I am actually not a big fan of Stoops and I think USC has a huge coaching advantage over OU. Yes, I said huge. Carroll and Chow are a super combo each having their own side of the ball. Who is a better OC than Chow? How many DC are better than Carroll? Remember, this is only Carrolls 4th year at USC so he still is getting his athletes into his program. Think about it. Carroll had #1 ranked defenses as a DC in the NFL and has learned his defensive philosophies from the best DC's in the NFL. Stoops without question is a top 3 HC in college football and I rank him #2. Stoops + staff cannot out coach Carroll + staff. Just my opinion and just like you can make a strong argument for Stoops, I can make the same for Carroll.

USC has won I think 28 of their last 29 games. Dominated their opponents in 2 straight BCS bowl games and winning a NC. In the last 3 1/2 years under the Carroll era, USC has lost only 1 game, i repeat, only 1 game by double digits and that was 11pts @ND. USC average loss in the 3.5 years is around 4pts! Most media/fans felt USC was playing the best football at the end of the year in the last 2 years! USC has the 2nd longest winning streak in college football and I think the longest home winning streak. USC plays a LOT more tough road games than OU. USC also has played a LOT tougher SOS than OU in the last 4 years combined. 2 years ago USC had the #1 SOS in the country and this years SOS is currently ranked in the top 10. Carroll in the last 2 years has had to open their season ON THE ROAD across the country and won both! There is a lot of ammo supporting Carroll + staff as the best coached team in the country. Take a look at USC ATS numbers and ATS numbers for 2h plays in the last 2.5 years! USC average win I think is by 20+ pts in the last 2.5 years. Under Carroll/Chow USC gets better each and every game. I do not see that with Stoops. That is COACHING my friend. Take a look at both outstanding QB's Leinart and White. Who makes better decisions and better coached? Who reads defenses better? Think about it.

Take a look at penalties by OU vs USC. Who is more disciplined? I watched OU in the BCS NC game last year and was shocked how undisciplined they were.

LASTLY!!!!!!!!!!!

USC only returned 2 senior starters on offense this year and 3 starters on offense from last year. USC lost their 3 best WR's and all of their OL except 1. Look at the production from the USC offense. THAT IS A PRODUCT OF COACHING! Last year USC lost Heisman QB Palmer and stuck in 1st year starter Leinart and look at the production. That is COACHING!

This years team was suppose to have Williams, #1 OL, #1 WR (Lewis), #1 FB and all got hurt/suspended/or academics. USC counted on all 4 players being back and has USC struggled? COACHING!

I think you easily can make a stronger argument Carroll and USC staff being better than Stoops and his staff. I am willing to bet on it and that is why I wagered so much on USC to win the Orange Bowl with OU being the likely opponent. I will not be hedging my bet UNLESS USC is favored by 10+ pts then I might take OU +10 for a middle but only to make up for the money I put out not the profit.

This year OU was/is suppose to be loaded both sides of the ball. Lets see how they finish up. NEXT YEAR USC will be LOADED on both sides of the ball and we will see how USC ends up. USC returns everybody on offense except 2 players and everybody on defense except 4 players. USC gets back 3 players on offense that were suppose to be starters on offense this year! LOADED!

All that said, would you trade Stoops for Carroll? You wouldn't. Would I? YES! Would both teams be well coached and successful? YES!

 

[Franky Wright]

Trojans lose this weekend........

Beavers 23 Trojans 21

 

[bbk]

I think it will be somewhere like 35-31 it will be close if Anderson doesnt throw a pick it will be the beavers by 2 td's

 

[Scott4USC]

Pretty BOLD prediction by both of you.

The only position where Oregon St. outclasses USC is at the DB position. OSU has outstanding DB's and that "could" pose a problem to the young and inexperienced WR's for USC.

Oregon ST. +17 should be your GOY then if you predict an outright win! If I thought the spread was off by 24pts I would bet my whole account on the game!

 

[Franky Wright]

Well, maybe you like Games of the Year, Month, Pac10, or if Fido takes one in the ass lock of the kennel club pick. But I dont do that. However, if your so confident in your Trojans, why dont you unload your whole account on them? :sadwave:

Actually Oregon State is a 3* pick for me which is one of my top picks, and I will throw a 1/2unit on the ML also. Already up this week, so if the bankroll allows, it will be a full unit...............

GL with your Trojans Scott

 

[bbk]

GOY crap is stupid; I am here to cap and win money not post stupid rah rah crap; I dont think its a bold prediction. I am just betting that USC doesnt luck out and get alot of easy turnovers which unfortanately Ore State delivers quite a bit. I have been capping this game since Sunday and from what I have read Or State will play this game like their bowl game. USC better show up in the 1st half or this will be like the stanford game again.
Ore State straight up. If OU wins this week; Cal and OU will end up playing in the NC game as I expect AU to lose at Bama. I am planning to make a large wager on Cal to win the NC +1500 there is no value in the USC play. If USC loses and Auburn should lose; OU would play Cal in the NC game assuming OU does not lose to A&M; if OU does lose and Auburn loses then Cal would play USC and I am very very confident of a large victory of USC in that rematch.

 

[Dizzayton]

I'll be on Auburn in the National Championship game against USC. No doubt about it. This is Auburn's season, they've got the type of power running game that will overpower any team in the country. This is college, and Auburn is sporting to pro quality backs, yes Bush is a stud who will play in the Show, but Cadillac and especially Brown could play in the Show this Sunday and be ready. Give a slight edge to Leinhart at QB, but not much. Auburn will take care of business against the Trojans for all the marbles.


Oklahoma will lose in the Big 12 tourney.

 

[gman2]

i dont have the time or resources to find the info, but i would love to know what stoops' record is vs. ranked opponents in his tenure at oklahoma or year-by-year? either my memory is failing or this guy is hands down the best big-game coach in america.

as for the usc matchup this week, i really like oregon state but cant trust that c0cksucker anderson. every time i bet him, he is an INT-machine. if he manages to play a clean game, then there is no doubt osu could hang around long enough to pull the upset.

but if usc doesnt lose this week, they wont lose the rest of the year. ucla and notre dame wont touch them. but oregon state presents a dangerous challenge

 

[pt1gard]

gman 2 it is something like --im guessing sorry

14-3 maybe

bbk, i love cal at 15/1 for a few donuts of fun

 

[Bob Stoops]

from soonersports.com

Stoops is 25-11 Overall. He is 3-2 in bowls, 3-1 in January Bowls, 2-1 in BCS games, 34-7 vs. Big 12, 20-5 vs. the Big 12 South, 14-2 vs. the Big 12 North, 2-1 in the Big 12 Chamionship Game, 21-3 vs. non-conference foes, 30-1 at home, 16-6 on the road, 9-4 on neutral fields and 18-4 vs. ranked opponets.

All of this was prior to this season where the Sooners are 8-0 with wins over two ranked teams.

Show me another team that has played 24 ranked teams in under six years and is 83%.

 

[Scott4USC]

OU OOC opponents since 2001
North Carolina
at Air Force
North Texas
at Tulsa
Alabama
UTEP
South Florida
North Texas
at Alabama
Fresno State
UCLA
Bowling Green
Houston
Oregon

3 road games in 4 years against OOC opponents! :142lmao:

USC OOC opponents since 2001
at Virginia Tech
Colorado State
at BYU
ND
at Auburn
BYU
Hawaii
at ND
No. 22 Auburn
at No. 14 Colorado
at No. 6 Kansas State
ND
San Jose State
Kansas State
at Notre Dame

USC 7 road games in the toughest environments in 4 years!

THERE IS NO COMPARISON! Carroll has a MUCH tougher time coaching at USC. Starting every season against tough OOC competition is TOUGH! Opening back to back seasons on the road across country is TOUGH! OU has benefited opening their season AT HOME and against sub par competition to get ready for the season.

As for wins against ranked opponents. I quickly looked it over at ESPN, and OU since 2001 has beat 10 ranked opponents at the time played and USC has beat 8 ranked opponents at the time played.

Remember, Carroll took over in 2001 and had to build USC into the program it is today. Stoops already started building his program in 2001. Comparison favors Stoops and not fair to Carroll.

I also believe USC has played a stronger SOS since 2001 than OU.

Lastly, Stoops does not have class.

Please don't get me wrong. Stoops is an EXCELLENT coach and any team would LOVE to have him as their head coach.

 

[Scott4USC]

Just a heads up

Betwwts has CAL 18-1 to win the Orange Bowl

 

[bbk]

I would take Stoops, Tedford and a few other guys other than Carroll; scott you would be wise on betting on Cal that way when they win the nc it would hedge your bet against your USC bet

 

[gman2]

Remember, Carroll took over in 2001 and had to build USC into the program it is today. Stoops already started building his program in 2001. Comparison favors Stoops and not fair to Carroll.

youre right. carroll was starting with a bare cupboard. i mean, he took the program from its darkest days and no talent.... all he had to work with was the #1 overall pick in the draft that he didnt recruit (palmer) and a first-round pick in polamalu at safety. and i believe he walked into colbert at wr as well. its not like usc hasnt had talent for years. they had loads of talent under hackett. carroll just knows how to coach a helluva lot better than hackett. but to imply that he was starting from scratch is preposterous.

 

[maverick2112]

Scott.........do you really think USC will be a 7 pt fav over OU if they both go in undefeated?????

Just curious.......the gold sheet power ratings would have the game a pick right now on a neutral field........OU Pr-7 Usc Pr-7

I personally would make Usc a 4 pt favorite..........

 

[flapjack]

I argee Cal at 18-1 is the best value, hands down. Love the Trojans, I think they'll win it all, but at only +160 to win 5 straight against 2 rivals and #2 team in country , not liking that at all.

I'd rather just load up on them on the money line each week - or at least ND, UCLA and OB - instead if SC to win it all was the route you wanted to take. Just my opinion.

 

[kneifl]

This thread cracks me up :142lmao: :142lmao: :142lmao:

While USC is a good football team and may be the best NCAAF team in the country right now they very well could get beat by Oregon St. I don't think this will happen, but I think Oregon St covers the 17 pts. As a matter of fact I have seen any given team can get beat by a worthy opponent if they do not play to their full potential. If USC doesn't get beat during the regular season they'll have their hands full in a bowl game against OU or AU. Only time will tell.....

Oh and BTW, those futures bets you made are a sportsbooks dream. I for one don't do futures. They (sportsbooks) love players that make those kind of bets FWIW....

kneifl