WOW, I will admit I thought about this play since yesterday and decided to pull the trigger. Typically I do not rely solely on trends as they are typically arbitrary. Different team, different results based on different factors. But I do lend some credence to them in terms of "having a teams number" etc, or doing other different pieces of analysis in which I won't go into here...
But the trends besides hte obvious ones everyone has seen and in my other post, but this one seems to be a gift in getting the points... so I will play it as such.
Toledo 7.0 / -105.0
Here are some of those "other" trends:
Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) - off a loss against a conference rival against opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals.
(30-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (75%)
Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) - off a road loss against a conference rival against opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals.
(23-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.1%)
Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses against opponent after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins.
(38-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.5%)
Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (N ILLINOIS) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a road loss.
(25-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.6%)
Play Against - Any team (N ILLINOIS) - excellent rushing team - averaging 225 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. (54-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.1%)
Play Against - Any team (N ILLINOIS) - outrushing their opponents by 60 or more yards/game on the season, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. (65-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.1%)
If the NIU weren't statistically playing so well, this would have been a larger play, but it did get me thinking so the units were adjusted.
D.G.
But the trends besides hte obvious ones everyone has seen and in my other post, but this one seems to be a gift in getting the points... so I will play it as such.
Toledo 7.0 / -105.0
Here are some of those "other" trends:
Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) - off a loss against a conference rival against opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals.
(30-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (75%)
Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) - off a road loss against a conference rival against opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals.
(23-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.1%)
Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses against opponent after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins.
(38-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.5%)
Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (N ILLINOIS) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a road loss.
(25-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.6%)
Play Against - Any team (N ILLINOIS) - excellent rushing team - averaging 225 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. (54-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.1%)
Play Against - Any team (N ILLINOIS) - outrushing their opponents by 60 or more yards/game on the season, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. (65-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.1%)
If the NIU weren't statistically playing so well, this would have been a larger play, but it did get me thinking so the units were adjusted.
D.G.
