Tuesday Night NCAA FB with D.G.

dogface

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Feb 13, 2000
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WOW, I will admit I thought about this play since yesterday and decided to pull the trigger. Typically I do not rely solely on trends as they are typically arbitrary. Different team, different results based on different factors. But I do lend some credence to them in terms of "having a teams number" etc, or doing other different pieces of analysis in which I won't go into here...

But the trends besides hte obvious ones everyone has seen and in my other post, but this one seems to be a gift in getting the points... so I will play it as such.

Toledo 7.0 / -105.0

Here are some of those "other" trends:

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) - off a loss against a conference rival against opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals.
(30-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (75%)

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) - off a road loss against a conference rival against opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals.
(23-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.1%)

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses against opponent after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins.
(38-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.5%)

Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (N ILLINOIS) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a road loss.
(25-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.6%)

Play Against - Any team (N ILLINOIS) - excellent rushing team - averaging 225 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. (54-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.1%)

Play Against - Any team (N ILLINOIS) - outrushing their opponents by 60 or more yards/game on the season, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. (65-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.1%)

If the NIU weren't statistically playing so well, this would have been a larger play, but it did get me thinking so the units were adjusted.

D.G.
 

bombercoops

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Stats were solid and the result proved it. Keep us posted on any more 'favorable' plays like tonight when the stats match up D. Thanks mate!
 
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