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miami redhawks at akron zips (6:00pm EST)
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im amazed the total is this high in this game. really figured it would be 52ish, maybe 53.... but 56 (and now 57) is damn high. this one's for the mac east championship, and (at least in my opinion) theres no way akron can win getting into a shootout with miami. the zips are playing great football right now, but miami outclasses them at pretty much every position except quarterback. i think miami is going to attack akron on the ground. redhawks have been a run-first team in recent weeks and i dont see that changing against a less than imposing akron run defense. i just really think akron is going to be conservative in their first shot at a mac east title. i think theyre going to try and manage the game try to keep it close heading into the 4th qtr. as for the side in this game, flip a coin. miami holds a significant class edge, but akron is playing as well as theyve played in a looooong time. zips did a great job of winning out to set up this big showdown. do they have one more huge effort left in 'em? im not so sure they do, but betting against 'em doesnt appeal to me either.
incidentally, the following numbers really reflect well on akron. one pretty significant stat that makes me leery of laying the road chalk: the turnover department. miami is -7 on the season. akron is +5. the zips do the little things right -- theyre 1st in the conference in punt return yardage. 1st in the conference in kickoff return yardage. they avg. < 47 yards in penalties a game. theyve converted 62% of their 4th down tries.
i guess it all depends what your approach is. if youre backing miami, youre betting a team that is absolutely superior talent-wise and has a lot more playmakers. redhawks are capable of winning this game by 14-17 points. if youre backing akron, youre betting a team who doesnt beat themselves, and doesnt make a lot of careless mistakes, thus allowing them to stay in most games. and youre also betting a confident team playing pretty damn solid football. to me, miami is just a lot better, but akron holds too many edges in the little departments for me to feel comfortable laying the chalk. plus, frye has solid career numbers against the redhawks. a definite pass on the side, but really like the under here
miami press conference:
http://muredhawks.collegesports.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/111604aac.html
akron press conference:
http://gozips.collegesports.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/111504aad.html
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ball state cardinals at central michigan chippewas (1:00pm EST)
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ball state is garbage on the road. check that -- ball state is garbage period. their two wins this year have been against central florida and western michigan -- who happen to be a combined 1-19 this year. the only thing i like about bsu is their young qb. he's not bad. but they are awful aside from him. cmich is coming off the most embarrassing loss possible - a 36-6 loss to buffalo. bsu wasnt even remotely competitive facing bg's and toledo's spread sets. cmu should cause equal amounts of problems. the bsu defense is as lame as youll find anywhere in the country. theyre allowing 460ypg in conference play (amazingly, thats not worst in the mac. that dubious honor goes to wmu, who is allowing 485ypg). chips obviously dont have the personnel that those two have, but bsu wont stop it regardless. seymour has struggled the last few weeks finding holes and rushing yardage, but the bsu run defense is a sieve and he should get back to his usual 100+yard afternoon. cmu made some progress this year, and i cant see any way they throw it all away by allowing a shit ball state team to come in and win.
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byu cougars at utah utes (7:00pm EST)
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rivalry? yep. mismatch? yep, that too. not going to get too thorough with this one. meyer has been a cash machine every time ive bet him at bg and now utah. even though ive steered cleer of the utes lately, im willing to take a shot here now that theyre back in the bcs picture and would love to lay it on thick against their rivals. not a huge fan of this kind of chalk, but have no problem laying it with one of the hottest teams in the country.
