Wk. 11

MrChristo

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Nov 11, 2001
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33-42-1 (-12.45)

Minnesota -7.5 (3 units!)

I like this play a whole lot.
Detroit getting WAY too much respect,and the whole world talking about this Minni mid-season collapse.

Detroit have had a funny scheldule so far...they look like they are playing well, but they have only faced 3 of the top 14 offenses.
Green Bay: 3rd in pass O, 4th total O, 5th scoring
Philli: 6th in pass O, 8th total O, 6th scoring
Dallas: 7th in pass O, 12th total O.

They have lost:
10-38 home to GB
13-30 home to Philli
21-31 @ Dallas.....coincidence?...I think not.

Now they face Min who rank 4th in scoring, 2nd in pass and total O.

Minni gain FD's at 51.4%, run for 5.1 ypc, throw @ 70.1 % for 8.20 yards per pass.
Detroit are second worst in the NFL (only Chicago worse) in total offense, gaining a terrible 3.3 ypc and 5.70 ypp.
It's a total mismatch. The only way Detroit stay within double digits is if Eddie (**** him for single handedly ruining my under lasty week) Drummond returns 4 punts for TD's....The problem with that? (besides the obvious!)...Minni won't be forced to punt 4 times ;)

San Diego -4

I originally thought this was a sucker line, but the more I look the more I think some people might actually still think Oakland are ok, and SD shouldn't be road favs to anyone....Of course this view is horribly out dated!
SD are genuine. Best run D in the NFL. Great, balanced attack.
Wk. 8 @ SD was a total demolision...33 FD's to 15, 448 yards to 28...175 yards rushing to 22!!!!

SD are still the most under-rated team in the NFL....Oakland one of the worst.

Denver -4

Love going against NO. They are abosutely terrible. An upset win last week v. a Holmes-less, defenseless Chiefs, brings this line in from -7 or 8 where it should be.
Denver 5th ranked total O...NO worst D in the NFL...Not hard to work out the consequenses. In fact there's a lot of (statistical) similarities between this NO team and Oakland, where Denver went and won 31-3.
NO have given up 20+ points in every game so far @ 28.2 ppg...Denver 3rd overall D, and although they gave up big points to Atlanta a few weeks back, they'll have a lot less trouble holding a 1 dimentional NO attack in check.

Pittsburgh -4

Cinci allow 4.5 ypc. End of story. Steelers have been controlling the ground game and playing tight defense. What's new here? Different stadium, same result. Steelers run, run, pass when needed and keep the opposition under 300 yards and 17ppg.
Football is such a simple game, isn't it ;)

Washington @ Philli under 38.5

This play is based more ono Philli than Washington! I mentioned the Eagles schedule a few weeks back...It has been very easy!!
Since wk. 1 when they faced a very undermanned Giants D, they have faced exactly 2 teams in the top 13...(Actally I could even count Chicago @ 14!)
The Eagles scored 19 @ Chicago (14th D), 15 v. Baltimore (4th D) and 3 @ Pittsburgh (1st D)...Now they face 2nd ranked Washington.
Sure, McNabb and Owens looked fantastic against a horribly undersized Dallas last week, but things will be very different this week.

Think the 'Skins might be a good shot @ +11, but even with Ramsey starting I think Washington struggle to score. Portis has been disappointing recently, and Philli pass rush is still good.
Like the under at a nice number.

Tenn @ Jax under 36

Who scores in this game? (Besides those damn punt returners :cursin: )
Both averaging under 6.5 ypp....Now both with back-up QB's. Brown doubtful for Tenn.
Neither team great in red zone.
Will be pretty upset if this one sneaks over.

Good Luck all :cool:
 

Irish

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Good luck this sunday. With you on the steelers, leans on Den and SD. Worried the raiders come out after the beatingSD gave them last time. Best of luck

Cheers
Irish
 

bombercoops

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Can't pull the trigger on pitt either. Like the viking's also christo. GL with the weekend's plays!
 

ScreaminPain

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Looks like a winning card to me. I'm all over Pitt and S.Diego.....a little leary of a backdoor cover on Minny, due to their defense (or lack thereof) but will probably play them also.

I don't cap totals very well but agree with your logic. Nice write up...thanks for the insight

Good Luck tomorrow!! :clap:
 

MrChristo

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Thanks guys....:toast:

Minni -7 (-107) @ Canbet!!!!!!!!!!!...All over it ;)

SD -3.5 (-104) @ Pinnacle....which is a bit scary tbh! Not seeing many people at all on Oakland....They couldn't get up could they? :shrug:....they might just lose by 3 tho. :cursin:

Let's all have a good w'end.

[PAWA, if you happen to read this, fire up the MSN at 5am mate...I'm back at home and will be up 'watching'....both games delayed on Fox tho :( ]
 

MrChristo

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Carolina/Arizona over 37

League: 15-4-1 over (Av. 47.3) home 3- fav off 10+ ats win as away 3- dog. [Caro]

As we saw last week, when Carolina play a team NOT in the top 10 for any defensive area (excluding wk. 1 v. GB), they have scored:
28 @ KC.
24 v. Oakland
37 @ SF.

They have had a tough defensive schedule, and should be able to put some points up on Arizona aswell.
They've still got lots of defensive injuries, so 'Zona should be able to score...and if Smith doesn't play, that will mean more off a passing game.
(In fact Arizona are 3-0 over v. losing teams this season)
 

bombercoops

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How about the panthers themselves christo? Any thoughts? Kinda like em' to finally win a game at home inside a field goal. If they can't beat Zona at home, who can they beat??
 

MrChristo

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Yeah...was thinking the same thing, bomber.

As I said, I do expect them to put a decent amount of points up...the only thing is they do have A LOT of defensive injuries.

I guess I'm taking the over because I think Arizona will score a bit themselves...Caro have given 23 ppg this season...the lowest being 17.
'Zona av. nearly 24 ppg themselves the last 6 weeks.

Like the over better...but only @ 37, wouldn't go any higher....Don't like the way the line opened @ -2.5 tho bomber, 'tis a nasty number!!

Sorry mate, I don't think I was much help there! :D
 
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