These are not the numbers.....but this is what I am talking about....
Tips for handicapping bowl games
Ted Sevransky
The college bowl season is here with 28 games over the next month to handicap, bet and win.
Handicapping college bowls is much different from handicapping regular-season contests. Significantly more public money is bet on bowl games, which gives the sharp player an edge, year in and year out.
That?s if you?re paying special attention to some key factors.
Motivation is the key factor for any bowl game.
Overall talent and team speed don?t mean a thing when the players don?t give a hoot about being there. That?s why underdogs generally have such a strong record against the spread in the earlier bowl games.
The favorites are there because they had disappointing seasons and really don?t care much for spending a good part of the holiday season in places like Detroit, San Francisco, Fort Worth and Shreveport.
Meanwhile, underdogs are usually smaller conference schools that are excited to play a major conference foe, regardless of the location. If the favorite isn?t likely to be motivated (always check the local newspapers for clues about their level of preparation and intensity), the dog is the way to go.
Look for the areas of team strength that are not likely to be affected by a long layoff.
Remember, most teams will have been off the field for at least a month by the time they hit the big stage.
Teams that run the ball well are generally good bets in bowl games. Run blocking is not something that suffers dramatically during a layoff and good running backs are usually happy to have a month to rest and heal.
Teams that outrush their opponents cover the spread better than 75 percent of the time in December and January. But don?t neglect special teams. Special teams weaknesses have a nasty habit of popping up at the most inopportune times.
Bet the coach.
Some coaches seem to do well in bowl games almost every year, while others treat bowl games as a reward for their squads.
Bob Pruett of Marshall is 4-0 straight up and against the spread in the Thundering Herd?s last four bowl appearances, winning outright as a three times. Tom O?Brien of Boston College also has won and covered in each of his last four bowl appearances. Meanwhile, Mack Brown of Texas has only one spread cover in his last five bowl tries, losing straight up three times as a favorite.
These are not meaningless trends or statistical aberrations. They?re are a statement about how a particular coach is able to prepare his team for postseason play.
Look for motivated and talented quarterbacks.
Most QBs are team leaders. If a QB is prepared to make a statement for the scouts in his bowl game, he?s generally the type of quarterback worth supporting with a wager.
Senior quarterbacks who have demonstrated a "will to win" are your best bet.
Defense means more than offense.
The dominant defensive clubs are strong plays in bowl games almost every year. They create turnovers and hold leads.
Teams that fall behind in bowl games tend to get frustrated easier than they do in the regular season, which is one of the reasons why bowl season produces more than its fair share of blowouts. In each of the last two bowl seasons, more than half the games have been decided by double digit margins. Teams with the better quarterback (I)and(/I) the better defense are generally good bowl bets.
Look for teams on the hunt for respect.
When one club gets all the hype and publicity, and the other is virtually ignored by the media, the over-hyped team often comes in overconfident, while the under-hyped squad is usually more motivated. Pay particular attention to this in the later bowl games, when the media glare really heats up.
Handicap the conferences as a whole.
When a particular conference shows strength early in the bowl season, the remaining teams from that conference are often worth a play, or vice-versa.
Every year there is a conference or two that does exceptionally well in the bowl games. Catch these trends early and ride them through the conclusion of the bowl season.
Don?t be afraid to pass.
With so many bowl games and so many intangible factors to consider, there will be numerous matchups that simply don?t offer much value to bet on.
Remember that the entire bowl season has about half the games of a normal Saturday college football card. Sure, we know these teams well.
But we don?t have 20 or 25 plays on a normal college football Saturday and there?s no reason to have that many plays when the card is only half as large.
