Huge play for Saturday

[Nickelback]

My games of the year are never this early in the season but this is my best bet of the early season:

Marquette -2 over Wisconsin for the following reasons:

1. System Play
2. Public is on Wisconsin
3. Marquette is 0-3 ATS this year. . . yet they're a favorite at home over a ranked team? When it seems to good to be true, it usually is and Vegas should cash this in.

Concern: Who has Marquette played? This is why I'm not making this a GOY but I'll still have plenty on it. Also, system plays didn't fare so well last weekend so they're due to come in this time around.

Another system play: Florida -3 over Louisville but I'm only gonna play this one average.

GL all

 

[Clem D]

Good Luck Nickleback. may have to tail you

 

[Jaxx]

Gl Nickel. Do you have a record for the system so far this year. Have not been tracking.
Thanks

 

[Nickelback]

Adding to Florida in the second half -4 very big play. . . Florida will win this game and cover the original line.

 

[TJBELL]

Seems like 80%+ play when a non ranked home team is favored over a ranked team by around 3 points or so, I ALWAYS play the non ranked Home Favorite.

You will win more than you lose!!!

GL Nickelback! On it as well!!!!

 

[west coast guru]

nice 3pt shooting at home so far :cursin:

 

[Tanner]

you wasted your money on Florida. Like I've said the system this year is easy money going the other way.....

 

[Nickelback]

Well Tanner, since you said it then I'm sure you're correct.

I was on the right side for the second half even though it didn't come in. The fact that the books came out with Florida -4 for the second half in a close game when Florida was only a 3 point favorite for the entire game was very telling. But of course I don't know what I'm talking about do I Tanner. . . I'm sure you have the books all figured out

 

[Nickelback]

I'm sure I'm wasting my money taking Marquette as well. . .

Of course, don't call me out until the game is almost over just like you did with Florida

 

[Jaxx]

Tailed ya on Marquette Nickel. Florida not looking good so far this year. Youll get it back.
Lets bring in Marquette.

 

[KO Artist]

While Marquette is playing at home, that will not be a huge advantage. As everyone knows, Badger fans travel well and will be there in full force.

Wish I would have played WI+2, but even now at -1, I think WI handedly wins this game. Marquette, with no big guy to speak of, relies on the sharp shooting of Novak and a beat up Diener. Their early season schedule is a huge concern to me as they have not played anyone, and are only able to seal the deal late in those games.

It may be the public play, but I am all over Wisconsin-1.

 

[Phenom]

I am not sure Florida was the right side in the 2nd half, I think Louisville covered :shrug:

Good Luck on Marquette, Diener can shoot!

 

[countinguy]

Hang in there Nickel, GL On Marquette, personally I think it is the right side they way i capped it..

 

[Nickelback]

If you read my post I said "I was on the right side for the second half even though it didn't come in"

What is so hard to understand about that especially when I explained it with the number that the books gave to us?

 

[gman2]

four things i believe are true:

1) louisville was the right side for the 1h, the 2h, and the game. was rooting for the gators, but they got outworked and outplayed for 40:00. they were never truly in the game in the sense that louisville never trailed nor had any pressure on them.

2) tanner is a bashing idiot (he's been at this before. just gotta ignore putzes like him)

3) marquette is a solid play for tonight.

4) system plays will cash a lot more than theyll fail.

 

[Nickelback]

In that respect gman, you are correct. . . Lousiville outplayed Florida. . . but the line that the books released at the half looked like they were shooting for Lousiville money.

That is especially true when you look at the halftime stats and Lousiville with a short bench and foul trouble . . .they were ahead because they shot the ball well over 50% while Florida was below 50%. . .

Anyways, it didn't come in and it happens or else this wouldn't be gambling. But give me this scenerio 10 more times this year and I bet I hit 8 of those second half wagers

 

[Wilson]

May I chime in here...

Nickel-

We both have studied this angle for many years...it has been most profitable from November up to conference play. You and i are both on the right side with Marquette. Don't waste your time with people like Tanner...I appreciate your insight on every post you make...lets make some money.

 

[gman2]

nickel:

no slight intended. i know where youre coming from, and im the same way with reading lines. no doubt the line said florida for the 2nd half. just didnt work out because florida simply didnt play well enough. that team is puzzling. they should be a lot better than they are.

gl with marquette. bring it in.

 

[Nickelback]

Wilson,

Its certainly a stronger play than Florida was when you crunch the numbers and this is why I only made Florida an average play. . . we'll see what happens.

GL to us

 

[Nickelback]

nickel:

no slight intended. i know where youre coming from, and im the same way with reading lines. no doubt the line said florida for the 2nd half. just didnt work out because florida simply didnt play well enough. that team is puzzling. they should be a lot better than they are.

gl with marquette. bring it in.

Yeah, Arizona is the same way this year. . . tough to figure them out