Four Key Factors for Handicapping College Bowl Games
1) Yards Per Play Statistic: The yards per play statistic (YPP) is important for handicapping any football game, but it looms even larger in bowl games. Basically, YPP is a measure of team efficiency, both offensively and defensively. Obviously, on offense, the higher the YPP the better, and on defense side, vice-versa. The differential of these two is what separates the dominant teams from the good teams. From a game by game standpoint, YPP figures can be skewed somewhat by big plays. Over the course of the season however, the numbers tend to level out. Therefore, by the time the teams reach their bowl games, the YPP differential can give an excellent indication of overall strength. Usually the team with the highest YPP differential has the ability to control the line of scrimmage and consequently, a great chance of winning and covering. The perfect example of this came in 2003 Orange Bowl, where USC beat Iowa 38-17, as a 4-1/2 point favorite. USC, arguably college football’s best team at the close of the season, finished ranked first nationally in YPP differential with a +2.54 total. Iowa had a respectable +.96, but it was evident that the Hawkeyes couldn’t match up with the powerful Trojans. Sometimes you need to look no further than this simple but effective YPP calculation when handicapping a game. For the record, the teams with the best YPP differential ( I think my numbers are correct but had trouble getting accurate data on some of the smaller schools)
Louisivlle +2.7
Cal +2.6
Aub +2.0
USC +1.9
Okie +1.8
LSU +1.8
Utah +1.7
BGSU +1.7
FLA +1.6
Worst
Smiss -1.0
Colorado -0.6
Iowa State -0.4
Cinc -0.4
Cuse -0.3
UNC -0.1
