Hi guys, taking Bowling Green with the hook-2-. and betting a little more on the over at 65.
The main reason i like B.G. is the difference in the run differential between the two teams on defense. Bowling Green has a 1.2 yards defense better against the run, which memphis is a running team, so i see many more 3rd down and 5 or 6 yards for memphis than i do for bowling green which can run and pass . Memphis run defense is giving up 4.4 yds per rush versus bowling greens 3.2 which is strong in a running conference their from. Memphis secondary can't stop anybody and proof from the 3 loses. They will be exposed tonight. I expect bowling green to hop on them early, and win by a 7-10 points. The weather is not a big factor on the over because i feel B.G. is better prepared by playing in bad weather games already and scoring in the 40's and 50's each of the 3 games. Memphis will be affected by the rain more than B.G. and one would expect some turn overs by memphis if they fall behind, thus i like the over 65 on the line drop for pretty good value. Good luck
The main reason i like B.G. is the difference in the run differential between the two teams on defense. Bowling Green has a 1.2 yards defense better against the run, which memphis is a running team, so i see many more 3rd down and 5 or 6 yards for memphis than i do for bowling green which can run and pass . Memphis run defense is giving up 4.4 yds per rush versus bowling greens 3.2 which is strong in a running conference their from. Memphis secondary can't stop anybody and proof from the 3 loses. They will be exposed tonight. I expect bowling green to hop on them early, and win by a 7-10 points. The weather is not a big factor on the over because i feel B.G. is better prepared by playing in bad weather games already and scoring in the 40's and 50's each of the 3 games. Memphis will be affected by the rain more than B.G. and one would expect some turn overs by memphis if they fall behind, thus i like the over 65 on the line drop for pretty good value. Good luck
