Week 16 Misc. Analysis

[Senor Capper]

NFL week 16 analysis (The Sports Pickle)
Green Bay at Minnesota (-3)

A Catholic priest in Green Bay is canceling his parish?s Christmas Eve service because it was going to conflict with the airing of the Packers game. But you really can?t blame him ? like most of the media, the priest probably thinks Brett Favre is Jesus.
My pick: Minnesota

Denver at Tennessee (+3.5)

Doesn?t Billy Volek play behind the same line as Steve McNair? How is it that he stays healthy and McNair gets injured at least once per series? Oh, right ? it?s because McNair is the toughest player in the NFL. (I know ? that makes no sense, but life is much easier if you just believe what you are told.)
My pick: Tennessee (and to win)

San Diego at Indianapolis (-7)

Drew Brees is a better quarterback than Peyton Manning. You may disagree, but I?ll take a quarterback with the courage to go out in public with a hairy facial mole over almost anyone. Brees easily could have scheduled a routine appointment with a dermatologist years ago and had that puppy removed, but no. Instead he said: ?Me and my hairy facial mole are going to throw for four touchdowns on you, whaddaya think of that?? That?s the kind of guy I want quarterbacking my team.
My pick: San Diego (and to win)

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-5.5)

The thing that makes Kyle Boller an elite quarterback is his consistency. After a 232-yard, two TD performance against the great Cowboys in a home win in Week 11, he comes right back and backs it up with a 15-of-35, 93-yard game in a blowout loss to the Patriots, and a legendary 59.2 quarterback rating the week after that against the stout Bengals defense in a home loss. Then, it?s four touchdowns against the legendary Giants D in Week 14, followed by a stellar 19-of-40, two interception performance against the outstanding Colts defense in a loss. Only the great ones can put up numbers like that week in and week out.
My pick: Pittsburgh

Houston at Jacksonville (-7)

Did you know that Byron Leftwich is undefeated in his career when he plays in warm weather the week after he wins in temperatures below 15 degrees? It?s true.
My pick: Houston (but not to win)

Atlanta at New Orleans (-2)

I?m assuming this is a Christmas gift from the linesmakers to all of us. Jim Haslett and the Saints giving two points to an 11-3 team? Uh, yeah ? I?ll take that. And no gift receipt needed.
My pick: Atlanta (and to win)

New York Giants at Cincinnati (-6)

The Bengals sat out 2003 No. 1 overall pick Carson Palmer sat out his entire rookie season to learn the ropes. I?m going to guess that the some of the Giants wish 2004 No. 1 overall pick Eli Manning ? architect of a five-game, playoff-chase-to-divison-cellar steak ? had been handled the same way.
My pick: Cincinnati

Buffalo at San Francisco (+11)

The Bills are the hottest team in the superior AFC, and the 49ers are the worst team in the terrible NFC. Based on the gap between the two conferences, that means this game will end something like Buffalo 524, San Francisco 3. And that?s with a running clock mercy rule after the Bills go up by 200.
My pick: Buffalo

New England at New York Jets

It?s surprising to see that the New York media has gotten inside Chad Pennington?s head. You would have thought the Marshall University student newspaper would have prepared him for the scrutiny of the New York media.
My pick: New York Jets (and to win)

Arizona at Seattle (-7)

Picking the Seahawks to beat anybody by a touchdown would be more dumb than a team picking Mike Holmgren to be their head coach and general manager. Okay, maybe not that dumb.
My pick: Arizona (but not to win)

Washington at Dallas (-2)

Don?t be sad, Redskins fans. If you squint at Joe Gibbs and Bill Parcells on your television, put on some leg warmers and jelly bracelets, and play The Bangles in the background, it might seem like the ?80s all over again and you?ll feel much better.
My pick: Washington (and to win)

Carolina at Tampa Bay (-3)

Last week the Panthers were run over by the Michael Vick Experience. I can assure you the Brian Greise Experience will be much more pleasant for them. I don?t even think there?s a height requirement to ride.
My pick: Carolina (and to win)


__________________

 

[Senor Capper]

The East Coast Bulletin
By Dennis Hill
This Season's Shocking NFL Statistic!

I would like to thank and wish all my loyal readers of
The East Coast Bulletin a joyous holiday season.

Remember this time of the year bet with your head
and not your, and you will be a winner. In the following
game analysis, you will find a rather shocking statistic to
truly make you think about making any wagers on big NFL
road favorites. You may think I'm crazy, but the facts speak
for themselves.

SAN FRANCISCO +11 OVER BUFFALO BY 1

History always has a way of repeating itself. So just
when you thought Buffalo couldn't be beat they will
lose this game. I said in a column I wrote here two week ago
that laying big favorites in the NFL late in the year will
burn your bankroll. That is the case here. New England
just lost this past Monday to Miami laying 10 points. I said
that game would be Miami's playoff game. Well, this is the
49ers playoff game.

Buffalo has won five straight games & ATS. Their average
margin of victory in those five games has been by a score
of 37-14. This line opened up at the Bills -10, and has climbed up
now to 11 points. Don't be surprise if this line doesn't go to 12 points.
Now you will be asking the impossible, if you think Buffalo will cover
this number. There have been 223 road games played so far
this year in the NFL. Would you believe that in only 24 games
the visiting team has won by more than 11 points. The math
is simple here in that only in 11% of those road games played,
the visiting team won by more than 10 points. Need I say more.
The 49ers get the cover, and maybe the straight up win too.


SAN FRANCISCO 21 BUFFALO 20

 

[Senor Capper]

NFL Week 16 primer: A season for giving -- and taking away (V. Iyer)
The holiday season is all about giving, but the NFL season is all about taking away. Most of the teams that get their stockings stuffed with interceptions and recovered fumbles also get to unwrap a winning record.

Starting with the Colts (plus-20) at No. 1, 10 of the top 13 teams in turnover margin are on the brighter side of .500. Two others, the Seahawks and Panthers, are in serious NFC playoff contention.

Starting with the Rams (minus-21) at No. 32, 10 of the bottom 13 teams in turnover margin have more losses than wins. Not surprisingly, two of the winning anomalies in that mix are the 8-6 Packers and 8-6 Vikings, who have ridden similar roller coasters all season. The team that gives more on Christmas Eve likely will give away the NFC North crown in the ...




NFC GAME OF THE WEEK

Green Bay at Minnesota. The Vikings needed a botched snap on a extra-point attempt to escape with a one-point win at Detroit last week, but despite the close shave, there were many positives in their performance. They made use of their diverse talents at running back and wide receiver, and Daunte Culpepper, with the exception of one pick, was efficient in distributing the ball.

Minnesota's defense did give up 27 points, but like other offensive-sided teams, the Vikings came up with a few big plays when they needed them. There's nothing that helps a defense more than putting pressure on the opposition to keep up in a shootout.

The Packers have struggled offensively, as their running game hasn't been dominant. Although Brett Favre is capable of winning games by himself, he is officially in a slump, with only three TD passes and seven giveaways over the pass three games. Favre has a history of struggling at the Metrodome, but he came up with a huge victory there last season.

Both teams can certainly light up the scoreboard, but you never know when either team will look naughty or nice on the field. That's because the coaching of both Mike Tice and Mike Sherman is inconsistent, both emotionally and schematically. The Packers just have been in the more giving mood of late, and the best game-altering player in this matchup belongs to the Vikes -- a full-speed Randy Moss. Vikings 30, Packers 24.

AFC GAME OF THE WEEK

New England at New York Jets. The worst thing that could have happened to the Jets was the Dolphins' upset of the Patriots on Monday night. That will drive Bill Belichick and his outstanding coaching staff even only more this week. And you can bet Tom Brady will play more like a two-time Super Bowl MVP.

The good news for both teams is that barring a whole slew of outside circumstances, the Pats and Jets will be the No. 2 and No. 5 seeds, respectively, in the AFC playoffs. This game is more important for New York to declare to the rest of the conference that it will be a wild-card force in January.

Chad Pennington is coming off his best performance of the season, and considering his play-action prowess, it was directly connected to the Jets' ability to run at will on Seattle. The Pats, however, excel at taking away what their opponents do best, and that means they will focus everything on slowing down Curtis Martin without worrying about the deep ball.

On the other side, the best way to keep Brady mistake-free is by feeding Corey Dillon often. Dillon already has overpowered the Jets' front seven once, and he will do it again. Patriots 24, Jets 20.

REMATCH OF THE WEEK

Baltimore at Pittsburgh. The Ravens are responsible for the only blemish on the Steelers' 13-1 record. That was way back in Week 2, when a rookie named Ben Roethlisberger came in to relieve an injured Tommy Maddox (Remember him?). In the tradition of Lou Gehrig for Wally Pipp, Big Ben hasn't looked back -- or lost since -- as a starting quarterback in the Iron City, much like The Iron Horse once started an amazing steak in the Bronx.

Kyle Boller, Baltimore's second-year QB, also has shown some poise this season. But Roethlisberger has benefited more from a healthier line, a more consistent running game and better playmakers at wide receiver.

This should be a tough, physical struggle between division rivals, with the road team looking to stay on the playoff track and the home team trying to pave the easiest way to the Super Bowl. Roethlisberger's passes haven't always been pretty, but he is a perfect fit as an on-field leader in the grittiest of cities. Steelers 20, Ravens 17.

SHOOTOUT OF THE WEEK

San Diego at Indianapolis. When the Bolts meet the Colts on Sunday, there will be enough offensive electricity generated to heat the entire state of Indiana, and parts of Illinois and Ohio as well. Although one team does it with "Martyball" and the other with "Manningball," the results aren't that much different on the scoreboard. Indy (33.6) is averaging only six more points per game.

The Chargers are more conservative in relying on the running of LaDainian Tomlinson and big plays from tight end Antonio Gates, but Drew Brees also is confident in throwing downfield to young speedsters Eric Parker and Kassim Osgood. And although Peyton Manning likes firing away to Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley, the Colts also can pound the ball with Edgerrin James and have their own athletic pair of tight ends.

LT will keep the visitors in the game throughout, but San Diego's most glaring weakness, its young secondary, will come back to haunt the team late, as it won't be able to handle covering Harrison, Wayne and Stokley in crunch time. I refuse to talk about Dan Marino's TD pass record this week, because I've already jinxed Manning twice. Oops, that counts as a mention. What the heck, he'll get it this time for sure, I promise. Colts 34, Chargers 31.

 

[Senor Capper]

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Tennessee over Denver. Jeff Fisher, you deserve a victory. Your team has had to keep adjusting its identity to stay competitive, and has done so admirably despite a rash of injuries at every key offensive and defensive position. Plus, Billy Volek and Drew Bennett can't keep losing if they keep going nuts, can they?

The Broncos, meanwhile, are a sputtering team, despite being mostly healthy. The door keeps revolving at running back. Jake Plummer keeps racking up interceptions. And if Champ Bailey is a "shutdown" corner, then I'm a "can't-miss" prognosticator. Titans 31, Broncos 28.

**** OF THE WEEK

Jacksonville over Houston. You can do it, Jags. You're almost there. I know I didn't pick you guys to win at Green Bay last week, but I am the guy who picked you guys to get to the Super Bowl in your home stadium.

I don't care if you need to do it as a wild card -- you just won at Lambeau Field, and wintry road conditions don't get much tougher than that in the playoffs. I don't care if you lost easily at Houston earlier this season. Find that axe from last year's locker room and chop down your destiny.

All I want for Christmas is a playoff berth and three more wins after that for Jack Del Rio's team. And after you scroll down to "Stats Of The Week," you'll know why I'm clinging to this. Jaguars 27, Texans 16.

REST OF THE WEEK

Oakland at Kansas City. Don't look now, but despite their mighty defensive struggles and the devastating season-ending knee injury to Priest Holmes, the Chiefs are knocking on .500's door. That's a result of a quiet great season from Trent Green and the sensational second-year effort of replacement running back Larry Johnson. The Raiders don't know what a running game is, and as Johnson found out three weeks ago, they don't know what a run defense is, either. Chiefs 42, Raiders 27.

Chicago at Detroit. Pride is on the line, and both Lovie Smith's Bears and Steve Mariucci's Lions will be coached to play their hardest this week. Smith's young aggressive defense and Mariucci's young West Coast offense are both still a year away from shaking up the Green Bay-Minny power struggle in the NFC North. Home field and -- surprise -- winning the turnover battle give the Leos the positive sign here. Lions 20, Bears 13.

Atlanta at New Orleans. No Michael Vick, no quit -- you can bet that will be Falcons rookie coach Jim Mora's philosophy as his team uses the final two games as its playoff prep. On the old sideline stomping grounds of his father, the two other key ingredients to Atlanta's success -- a strong running game and a speedy, swarming defense -- will come through. The inconsistent Saints are due to tumble at home after winning two on the road. Falcons 30, Saints 26.

New York Giants at Cincinnati. This has really been a "rookie" season for Bengals second-year QB Carson Palmer, who is set to return to the lineup and continue his promising progress. Giants "true" rookie Eli Manning will get to that point as well, with his head start on the learning curve paying off next year. This year, however, Palmer has better offensive support from Rudi and Chad Johnson and will take better advantage of a reeling Giants defense. Bengals 31, Giants 24.

Buffalo at San Francisco. The Bills' most important victory of the season came off their cross-country trip to Seattle, so they won't feel any jetlag against the 49ers, who are dragging their feet and going through the motions. Willis McGahee may be a no-go, which means only more trouble for San Fran's suspect secondary, as Drew Bledsoe has been clicking with Eric Moulds and rookie Lee Evans. Bills 26, 49ers 20.

Arizona at Seattle. The Seahawks are coming off a 37-14 drubbing at the hands of the Jets, and their second-worst performance of the season was a 24-14 loss at Tempe. The Cards won't let up on them this week, and Emmitt Smith will find plenty of running room to keep them in it until the end. Seattle will need their biggest play of the season from either Matt Hasselbeck or Shaun Alexander. If the team is indeed playoff-worthy, one of them will make it. Seahawks 24, Cardinals 14.

Washington at Dallas. Both teams have struggled through disappointing seasons after high preseason expectations for both Joe Gibbs and Bill Parcells, but neither team will have trouble getting up for its archrival. The Redskins will have some success with their blitzes, but the Cowboys will counter with max protection and a heavy dose of Julius Jones. Dallas' defense, with help from its home crowd, will get a few game-turning takeaways. Cowboys 23, Redskins 20.

Carolina at Tampa Bay. This is the time of the year that Florida teams don't have much of a home-field advantage, because every team would prefer to play in temperate conditions. This should be quite a coaching battle of the Johns, Fox and Gruden, as each head man knows his team still has playoff hopes. Fox's team has better hopes, and after last week's OT disappointment in Atlanta, it will close the deal in stealing this one late. Panthers 24, Buccaneers 21.

Cleveland at Miami. Call this the "Coachsearch.com Interim Bowl". But while the Brownies have rolled over for Terry Robiskie to the point of subzero offense, the fighting Fins are doing everything they can to shake the temporary label on Jim Bates. Bates might not beat out Nick Saban, but while he's in charge, his team will come out fired up at night for a second straight week and beat up its punchless visitors from the North. Dolphins 27, Browns 6.

 

[Randercity]

Great info as always.... thanks for the help!

 

[Senor Capper]

Game:Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs on Dec 25 2004 5:00PM
Prediction:Kansas City Chiefs
Reason:The Chiefs are now a staggering 17-1 in home games played at Arrowhead after destroying the Broncos last Sunday in the largest margin of victory the Chiefs have laid on Denver in over 20 years. It moves their impressive win streak to 3 games of utter dominance and puts them just 2 games under .500 with 2 to go and pride on the line. Enter the hapless Raiders and perennial quitter Kerry Collins. The Raiders are just 2-5 on the road this season, 3-7 against the AFC and a terrible 1-4 in their own division. Ride all trends here. Kansas City 42, Oakland 17. Take Kansas City