i hear lots of talk about what a letdown this bowl must be for uva given their lofty early season ranking. yet this season, while some early expectations were high, ended up closely mirroring the 'hoos' last two years. those years cavs made the prestigious trip to charlotte to play in the tire bowl, and both times al groh had his team well prepared to dispatch of well-thought-of big east opponents. can't really see how this year should be any different. if va wins today, they have a chance to penetrate the top 15 in the final poll, whch would be their best finish in a long time. you'll find it hard to convince me that al groh will be out-prepared or out coached during the game.
with intangibles dismissed above, i move on to the variables that i usually give most weight - rushing and rushing defense. the first thing that draws attention is the comparable national rankings if both teams' rushing game , with va ranked 14th and fresno ranked 17th. next i take look at the ranks of rushing defenses both teams faced this year - i see this:
fresno - sjs (144), nev (125), haw (143), rice (71), smu (126), boise (4), utep (77), la tech (93), kan st (75).
against boise"s 4th ranked rushing defense, fresno was stuffed for a total of 19 rushing yards. against rice, fresno did manage to eke out 109 rushing yards, but gave up 286 to the owls.
uva - va tech (30), ga tech (20), mia (78 -wow), md (61), duke (23 - wow again), fsu (2), syr (102), akr (105), unc (134).
the only teams to contain va's running game were the three teams that beat them, but only fsu's second ranked rush d actually shut them down. cavs actually outrushed va tech and miami by small margins. they ran all over everyone else, iincluding on the road against #20 tech and #23 duke.
all of the sudden, fresno's rushing game doesn't compare to the cav at all, and that's before i go down the rosters and look at the matchups, which brutally favors va. now take out the bulldog's starting nt booker, who has been the anchor of fresno's defensive line all year.
rushing defenses don't compare at all - fresno 79th vs virginia 23rd against grossly superior rushing teams. looking at virginia's three losses leads me to believe that containing their rushing game is pretty much critical to beating them, and the bulldogs jsut aren't up to the task.
i know fresno has the giant killer rep, but i just can't see it happening today, 'hoos have a huge talent edge in the trenches, and are just not a team subject to letdowns. i was a little concerned this morning when i looked and saw -5's across the board except for -4- at the offshores i consider the sharpest - pinny, oly and 5dimes. now is see -4- across the board, so it appears the sharps just anticipated that fresno would evolve into a public dog, some consensus sites nothwithstanding.
adding it all up, i come to the inescapable conclusion that cavs win by a td or more. that's my bowl play of the day, g/l whatever decide.
with intangibles dismissed above, i move on to the variables that i usually give most weight - rushing and rushing defense. the first thing that draws attention is the comparable national rankings if both teams' rushing game , with va ranked 14th and fresno ranked 17th. next i take look at the ranks of rushing defenses both teams faced this year - i see this:
fresno - sjs (144), nev (125), haw (143), rice (71), smu (126), boise (4), utep (77), la tech (93), kan st (75).
against boise"s 4th ranked rushing defense, fresno was stuffed for a total of 19 rushing yards. against rice, fresno did manage to eke out 109 rushing yards, but gave up 286 to the owls.
uva - va tech (30), ga tech (20), mia (78 -wow), md (61), duke (23 - wow again), fsu (2), syr (102), akr (105), unc (134).
the only teams to contain va's running game were the three teams that beat them, but only fsu's second ranked rush d actually shut them down. cavs actually outrushed va tech and miami by small margins. they ran all over everyone else, iincluding on the road against #20 tech and #23 duke.
all of the sudden, fresno's rushing game doesn't compare to the cav at all, and that's before i go down the rosters and look at the matchups, which brutally favors va. now take out the bulldog's starting nt booker, who has been the anchor of fresno's defensive line all year.
rushing defenses don't compare at all - fresno 79th vs virginia 23rd against grossly superior rushing teams. looking at virginia's three losses leads me to believe that containing their rushing game is pretty much critical to beating them, and the bulldogs jsut aren't up to the task.
i know fresno has the giant killer rep, but i just can't see it happening today, 'hoos have a huge talent edge in the trenches, and are just not a team subject to letdowns. i was a little concerned this morning when i looked and saw -5's across the board except for -4- at the offshores i consider the sharpest - pinny, oly and 5dimes. now is see -4- across the board, so it appears the sharps just anticipated that fresno would evolve into a public dog, some consensus sites nothwithstanding.
adding it all up, i come to the inescapable conclusion that cavs win by a td or more. that's my bowl play of the day, g/l whatever decide.
