The Judge's Docket - Motor City Bowl

The Judge

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MOTOR CITY BOWL
TOLEDO vs. CONNECTICUT - December 27TH, 5:30 pm

The Connecticut Huskies were awarded their first ever bowl bid after finishing 3-3 in the Big East while this will be the Toledo Rockets' 3rd appearance in the Motor City Bowl in the last four years. Toledo defeated Miami Ohio on this same field in the MAC Championship game on December 2nd. This game continues to offer an excellent recruiting opportunity for the Rockets as Ford Field is only an hour?s drive up I-75 from Toledo and there are currently 20 players on their roster from the Detroit area. For UConn, they find themselves in a bowl game in just their 3rd season in Division I-A which will be a big boost to their recruiting as they try to convince prospects that they are no longer just a basketball school.

The Bowl committee is undoubtedly loving this match-up, since both teams have explosive and high scoring offenses which are expected to give their national television audience and their advertisers their money's worth. Ford Field with it?s enclosed playing field should provide perfect conditions which will benefit the prolific passing offenses of both schools. Toledo plays numerous offensive formations and with finals week just ending, UConn can not possibly have found time to practice against all of them, so I think that we can expect that the Rockets should be able to put up points as they have all season. Toledo backers have fattened their wallets this year as Toledo has covered eight of their last nine games after allowing Minnesota and Kansas to each score 63 points in their first two games.

Anyone who has followed The Docket this season has heard me sing the praises of QB Bruce Gradkowski of Toledo as the Rockets have been featured in this newsletter no fewer than five times this year. On top of the fact that Gradkowski has thrown for 3,475 yards, 27 touchdowns and only 8 interceptions this year, I am here to tell you that he is one tough bastard. In the MAC Championship game on Dec. 2nd, Gradkowski had his left shoulder dislocated in the first quarter when he was tackled and driven into the ground. After the Rocket training staff popped his shoulder back into place on the sideline, he returned to the game. Then in the 2nd quarter, he broke a bone in his throwing hand on the helmet of a Miami defender while completing his throwing motion. At that point most players would have called it quits for the day, but this kid returned to the field and led Toledo to 28 second half points in a come from behind win. Despite playing with these injuries, his four touchdown passes tied the MAC Championship Game record which he now shares with Byron Leftwich and Ben Roethlisberger. The next day he had surgery on his hand which included the installation of three titanium screws. I was in Vegas at the time and unfortunately missed that heroic comeback as I had been drug by my companion to the Gladys Knight show (which, by the way, I highly recommend). However, I am happy to say that after the show, she cashed her first sports wagering ticket upon our return to the Rio. But I digress. Suffice it to say that Gradkowski is a stud.

Connecticut also has a passing game that surprisingly ranks 10th in the nation with QB Dan Orlovsky averaging over 285 passing yards per game. Toledo might have some difficulty stopping their aerial attack since the Rockets? pass defense is ranked 2nd worst in the country, giving up over 278 points per game and has allowed 25 touchdowns through the air this season. On top of that UConn has a solid running back in Cornell Brockington, who gained over 1,100 yards this year and averaged 5.1 per carry. Of course those numbers were put up against very weak Big East competition and their non-conference games were against Murray State, Duke, Georgia Tech, Army, and Buffalo. Although the Huskies beat Pittsburgh, they lost to Boston College and Syracuse. Did anyone see the Cuse in the Tangerine Bowl? That kind of schedule and competition does not exactly prepare a defense for a team like Toledo which finished their regular season with three big wins and covers and had to fight their way through a superior MAC conference.

The Huskies scored an average of 29.4 points per game this season and the Rockets averaged 38.3. If you remove the blowout losses to Minnesota and Kansas at the beginning of the season, Toledo has averaged 42.9 points per game since. Toledo has been particularly proficient in the second half lately as they were able to come back from early deficits and put up a combined 87 points in the second half of their last three games. Neither defense is worth spit so I?ll provide a prediction for the side and the total in this one.
The Verdict: Toledo (-3.5) & Over (66)
 

soljah67

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I'm with you on this one. Dunno about the Over, but Love Toledo and Gradkowski. Just not good on O/U picks. Toledo has been winning me money towards the end, why should it stop here. Gradkowski is gonna carry this team to victory as he will try to impress NFL scouts.

2 Units: Toledo -3.5
 

twofingers

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I find it curious that you totally ignore the injury to RB Mcdougal for Toledo. Certainly his loss will have some inpact on the Toledo offense. He was a very tough runner and help keep defenses honest.

I am not totally sold on Toledo here. If both McDougal and gradowski were healthy, then I would be more confortable backing them at what is basically a home game.

Defensively, Toledo is weak and UCONN should have little trouble moving the ball. If Toledo sputters at all with loss of McDougal and injury to Gradkowski, I can see UCONN winnning this outright.
 

trolln4walii

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Nice job with the write-up again Judge. I'm opposite you today. My feelings are much as twofingers stated. I said a week ago that without McDougal and a questionable Gradkowski that I couldn't back the Rockets. My money today goes to a healthy Orlovsky. See how the game plays out and maybe a halftime wager on a strong second half Rockets team. GL :)
 

The Judge

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twofingers said:
I find it curious that you totally ignore the injury to RB Mcdougal for Toledo. Certainly his loss will have some inpact on the Toledo offense. He was a very tough runner and help keep defenses honest.
I realized after posting my analysis that I had not addressed the absence of McDougle for this game. McDougle will not play but Toledo will use freshman Jalen Parmele, and juniors Trinity Dawson and Quinton Broussard to replace McDougle by committee. Broussard actually had only 113 yards per carry less that McDougle this season and his yards per carry (4.5) were higher than McDougle?s (4.1). The running game will be not see much of a letdown, if any.

The other point that I failed to mention is that Gradkowski's hand is fine. He has been throwing at full strength for over a week. Toledo should win this one by at least 10 points.
 

The Judge

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Bowl officials are expecting nearly 60,000 fans for tonight?s game which will be a Motor City Bowl record. The large attendance is the result of the close proximity of Ford Field to the Toledo campus. It will be just over an hour?s drive to the game for the Rocket fans, making this as close to a home game as any other bowl game with the obvious exception of the Hawaii Bowl.
 

The Judge

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5* - Toledo (-3)
5* - Toledo (-1.5) 1st Half
3* - Toledo/UConn Over (66)


I don't foresee a problem but I'm playing the first half in case Gradkowski's hand gets busted up.
 

Ronnie

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Good Luck Judge, appreciate your writeups. I always check out your posts at another handicapping site. :cool:
 

The Judge

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Ronnie said:
Good Luck Judge, appreciate your writeups. I always check out your posts at another handicapping site. :cool:
Thanks for the ecouragement, Ronnie. Good luck today!
 

Ronnie

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Shake it off Judge! I can't believe Toledo couldn't score. Hell, they couldn't score in a whore house. We'll get it back today! :cool:
 

The Judge

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Well that game could not have gone worse for me. The news reports concerning Gradkowski's improved condition were absolute bullshit. Nevertheless, UConn played a great game and congratulations to all who had the foresight to take them.

My bowl record is not looking too good early but I will attempt to bounce back with an analysis of both the Insight and Independence Bowls later today.
 

Irish

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Judge
I agree, the reports were a total farse. Would have been better to start counsil for the game! at one point in the game I saw 9 guys in the box. Plus the WR's didn't help him dropping 1 pass in the endzone. Any way good luck with the rest of the games!

Cheers
Irish
 

The Judge

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Irish said:
Judge
I agree, the reports were a total farse. Would have been better to start counsil for the game! at one point in the game I saw 9 guys in the box. Plus the WR's didn't help him dropping 1 pass in the endzone. Any way good luck with the rest of the games!

Cheers
Irish
Believe me when I say that these are not sour grapes, but with Gradkowski even close to healthy, this game takes on an entirely different face.
 

Irish

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I was on the rockets...I have sour grapes about them... Gradkowski shouldn't have played, the coach has to make that decision BUT as you said...have to be happy for the huskies!

GL
Irish
 

The Judge

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Irish said:
I was on the rockets...I have sour grapes about them... Gradkowski shouldn't have played, the coach has to make that decision BUT as you said...have to be happy for the huskies!
Not only should Gradkowski not have played, the team should have been honest about his condition. It is no secret that there is a lot of wagering on these bowl games and the lack of honest disclosure concerning his condition is inexcusable and more that a little suspect. That is the very reason that the NFL has rules concerning the accuracy of team's injury reports.

UConn deserves tremendous props for playing a great game in their first bowl trip. They have put together a respectable program in a very short time and this win will go a long way toward their recruiting efforts.
 
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