The Judge's Docket - Insight Bowl

The Judge

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INSIGHT BOWL
OREGON STATE vs. NOTRE DAME ? December 28th, 9:45 pm

The 2001 Fiesta Bowl was the last time these two teams met and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish were humiliated by the Oregon State Beavers in a 41-9 rout. Oregon State's frame of mind is almost assuredly in better shape than that of Notre Dame as the Beavers won five of their last six games and spanked their archrival Oregon in their finale. The Irish lost their last two games to Pittsburgh and USC and then as anyone who has not been living under a rock is aware, the school then unceremoniously fired their head coach, TY Willingham. That move apparently scared off a couple of potential coaches who were offered the job and declined until Charlie Weis accepted the position.

Kent Baer who had been serving as the defensive coordinator for the Irish will take the reins in this game until Weis can finish up his business with the New England Patriots where he is currently the offensive coordinator. Baer was so uncertain about this team even wanting to play this game that he actually asked them to vote on whether or not to make the trip to Phoenix. They are going but I?m not too sure that they won?t regret that decision tomorrow.

On paper, this is not a good spot for the Golden Domers, as they have given up 274.3 passing yards per game and have the 113th ranked pass defense in the country. In all five of Notre Dame's losses this season, the opponent has thrown for at least 300 yards. In their last two games, Pittsburgh's Tyler Palko and USC's Matt Leinart each threw for five touchdowns. Previous to the Pitt game, no team had ever been able to do that in the storied history of Notre Dame football and now the Irish have allowed it in two consecutive games. Not good news as they attempt to prepare for the Oregon State Beavers and their high flying aerial attack.

Beaver QB Derek Anderson has got to be licking his chops in anticipation of this match-up. His performance has him ranked as the 3rd most prolific passer in PAC-10 history, having thrown for 3,257 yards and 25 touchdowns this season alone. Granted, OSU is next to last in rushing nationally, with 75.4 yards per game although RB Dwight Wright has occasionally carried the ball for a big play. The reality of this is that the Beavers really only use the run to set up the pass and have done so very successfully against a tough schedule. Despite often being one dimensional, only USC was able to stop the connection of Derek Anderson to WR Mike Hass in the second half of the season and OSU only lost that game by eight points. In their other four losses, three of those came on the road against LSU, Boise State and Arizona State, the fourth was against California and in the USC game they actually led in the 3rd quarter. The combined record of the teams that beat OSU this year is 50-6.

Notre Dame has also been forced to rely on the arm of QB Brady Quinn this season as they were never able to get their running game on track. In fairness, Quinn has thrown for 2,372 yards this season and has completed pass for 15 touchdowns but he has also given up 9 interceptions along the way. Expecting Brady to carry the Irish in this game may be too much to ask considering that he will be throwing into a very good secondary that only allowed a nation leading 42.9% of the passes against them to be completed and pulled down 18 interceptions. Notre Dame's only comfortable wins this season came against Washington and Navy who both finished with 1-10 records. It is doubtful that they will be able to put behind them all of the distractions associated with Willingham?s firing. There was some question as to whether the Irish players even wanted to play in this game and they certainly lack the momentum that Oregon State is riding.
The Verdict: OREGON STATE (-4)
 

The Judge

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Hoping to turn my luck around and tonight I'm playing:

5* Oregon State (-4)
3* Iowa State (-1)


Good luck to all!
 

The Judge

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trolln4walii said:
:thumb: on the write-up and :thumb: on the games. GL

oops, and :thumb: on the avatar! :)
Thanks Trollin and thanks to you too Mad Jack! :)
 

The Judge

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I would like to take the Beavers as a pick for the second half but +140 is a little to much juice for me.

I think I'll just watch my 5* bet on OSU come in with the 3* on ISU that is already in the bank.
 
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