my first nfl 'over' bet .......ever

gman2

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have posted countless totals on nfl games over the last two seasons.......and never once have i played a pro game over the total.

this is the first (and last if it loses, lol)
i really like this play, although i cant bring myself to bet it too big because of my distaste of nfl overs.

houston texans over 40

kelly holcomb starting over mccown is so huge. browns playcalling with mccown in there is a joke. they dont even try to throw the ball downfield. with holcomb, the passing game just works. cant explain how or why. but it does. no way to explain the pittsburgh playoff game 2 yrs ago or the cincy shootout a month ago. receivers just get open for this guy and he finds 'em.

also, this is holcomb's last game as a brown before becoming a free agent. whether or not he gets a starting job somewhere next year remains to be seen, but this houston game gives him a chance to solidify himself as a legit nfl starter heading into the offseason, even though hes done in cleveland.

as for the browns defense, im expecting a huge letdown from them after their solid effort was wasted last sunday night against the dolphins. that game against miami was their 'big game', as they collectively spoke about not wanting to be embarrassed on national tv. to their credit, they played well......and still lost. im really expecting this defense to get torched by carr on sunday. texans have a chance to finish .500, so i gotta think theyre looking to unload on the clowns in this one. i just do not see the browns defense holding up against a good offense. houston should be able to do whatever they want with the ball.

as much as i despise overs, really feel like this is a solid play.
 

SIMON

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I like your view a lot.

I agree with the Kelly H passing game.
Some reason it does work.

Also with the weather being a tad bit warmer for this time of the year. It gives the passing game an added bonus.

Cleveland has no defense.
Houston's Offense can been more effective this year than their Defense.

Hopefully both teams can score 20 and who cares who wins in OT.

I'm gonna coattail you on this one.

Simon says...A Good Play
 

Johnt

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Sounds like a great call GMan ... the local paper in Cleveland this morning reinforces your analysis. With Carr and Holcomb going at it this one could be over the total by halftime.

Thank you for pointing this one out.
T :clap:
 

kickserv

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gotta love those "first bets ever"........destined to win I tell ya....good luck!
 

Johnt

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Just saw a prop on WSEX ...
Total points scored by Cleveland over 14.5 - 110

Could be worth a look if you think Cleveland under Holcombe can score 2 TD's and a FG tomorrow ...
T
 

gman2

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wox:

my thoughts?
my thoughts are that i now know why i only bet unders.

browns kick two field goals inside the 10.
houston has it 1st and 10 from the 20 before half and they take themselves out of FG range with penalties and sacks.

not getting my hopes up for the 2h.
 

halfbuck34

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Nov 14, 2004
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I also took the over in this one gman. I think there is some hope in the over yet, just do to the fact that for the most part both teams are moving the ball. We needed TD's!
GL and happy new year.
 

Soko

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Need to Houston to respond now with a TD and we'll be rolling. Nate Clements just returned one to the house so things are looking up once again dance1
 

Johnt

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Cleveland's doing their part ... we need three TD's in a quarter plus to pull this one out. Need a quick TD via turnover or big play to get closer.
T
 
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