Just a bit of a refresher on how last season went during the ugliest week of the year (Week 17). I do think money can be made this week.
I went back through my records to see if I could find any advantage for favs or dogs in previous Week 17's. Favorites went 8-7 (plus 1 Pick Em game) in '03, which is nothing unusual. Avg PPG however was just 37.5...tied for the lowest of the year. 4 Overs, 12 Unders. Looking at previous years' Week 17's....
2002 - Favs go 6-10. 7 Overs, 9 Unders. Avg PPG = 39.6 (3rd-lowest scoring week of the regular season).
2001 - Favs go 9-6. 8 Overs, 6 Unders, 1 Push. Avg PPG = 39.3 (6th lowest scoring week of the regular season).
2000 and 1999 averaged 44.5 PPG. and 46.9 PPG respectively. So....is it a downward trend in recent years or just a fluke....?
Re: actual game results. There were a lot fewer games last year with meaning...but it's interesting what happened in those games that did matter...
Games that meant something:
? Saturday: (6-9) Buffalo 0 @ (13-2) New England 31. NE was -9?. Pats lock up homefield throughout the playoffs while Bills lay down and die on the road.
? Saturday: (9-6) Seattle 24 @ (7-8) San Francisco 17. I'm trying to remember why SF was -3 for this game. It's certainly an unusual line in that Seattle needed the game to ensure they made the playoffs. A Sea loss + wins by Dallas and Minny on Sunday would have eliminated the Hawks. In any event, Seattle got the job done, but apparently ~something~ pushed this line in SF's favor.
On to Sunday...
? Minnesota and Dallas were both playing for the last playoff spot in the NFC. In the early games, Dallas gagged as a Pick Em @ (7-8) New Orleans, losing 13-7, leaving the door wide open for the Vikings. However, the Vikes also gagged in the 4:15 game. Eight-point road favorites, they lost 18-17 @ the (3-12) Arizona Cardinals... so the Cowboys advanced anyways. Cowboys in "win and you're in" position - LOSE. Vikes in similar position after seeing Dallas result - LOSE.
? The Eagles (11-4) had played on Saturday and won @ Washington. This meant the Rams with a win on Sunday would finish 13-3, lock up the #1 seed in the NFC and homefield throughout the playoffs. All they had to do was win @ (4-11) Detroit. The Rams went in as 11? point road favorites....and lost outright, 30-20. Eagles get homefield.
? Indy and Tennessee were tied in the standings (11-4) and playing for the division title & 3rd place in the conference. If they ended tied, Indy got the division. Both were playing in the early games on Sunday...and both prevailed. Tennessee at home beat (7-8) Tampa Bay 33-13, but Indy had to claw out a 20-17 road win @ (5-10) Houston, as 9-point favorites.
As far as I can tell, those were about the only games with any meaning on the final day. But in all four cases where the "must-win" (or "really-want-to-win") team was on the road, they failed to cover...three of them losing outright.
Games that had no meaning:
(4-11) Cleveland 22 @ (8-7) Cincinnati 14. Cinci was -8, and had been eliminated from playoff contention the previous week. Follows along the theory that teams that have recently been eliminated play poorly, but those that have been long out of the race may come up with a respectable effort as the season closes.
(5-10) Jacksonville 14 @ (4-11) Atlanta 21. Atlanta was -2?. Both teams were long out of the race. Home team gets the win & cover for the fans.
(6-9) NY Jets 21 @ (9-6) Miami 23. Jets cover the +3?. Despite the fact they could have (and did) tie Denver at 10-6, Miami could not make the playoffs, and they knew this going into the game.
(7-8) Chicago 3 @ (12-3) Kansas City 31. Line of KC -8. The Chiefs gave a real effort in front of the home fans despite having locked up the division & a #2 seed, while the eliminated Bears laid down on the road.
(10-5) Carolina 37 @ (4-11) NY Giants 24. Line of Car -4?. Panthers peaking at the right time keep right on rolling en route to their Superbowl appearance. This one goes against conventional logic...a team with nothing to play for playing strong on the road.
(10-5) Denver 3 @ (9-6) Green Bay 31. Line of GB -10. I remember watching this game. The Broncos absolutely did not show up for this game and clearly couldn't have cared less. Neither team had reason to win, but the Pack put on a show for the home fans at least.
(4-11) Oakland 14 @ (3-12) San Diego 21. Line of SD -6. Brutal Raiders team ends season losing 5 of 6, after playing in the Superbowl the year before. Chargers were never in the hunt all year, but manage to give their home fans a win and a cover (I see a pattern developing...).
(6-9) Pittsburgh 10 @ (9-6) Baltimore 13 (OT). Baltimore fails to cover the -5?. Sunday Night ESPN game with nothing on the line. Ravens already in as #4 seed in AFC, Steelers playing out the string for a long time, but playing tough against divisional rival.
I went back through my records to see if I could find any advantage for favs or dogs in previous Week 17's. Favorites went 8-7 (plus 1 Pick Em game) in '03, which is nothing unusual. Avg PPG however was just 37.5...tied for the lowest of the year. 4 Overs, 12 Unders. Looking at previous years' Week 17's....
2002 - Favs go 6-10. 7 Overs, 9 Unders. Avg PPG = 39.6 (3rd-lowest scoring week of the regular season).
2001 - Favs go 9-6. 8 Overs, 6 Unders, 1 Push. Avg PPG = 39.3 (6th lowest scoring week of the regular season).
2000 and 1999 averaged 44.5 PPG. and 46.9 PPG respectively. So....is it a downward trend in recent years or just a fluke....?
Re: actual game results. There were a lot fewer games last year with meaning...but it's interesting what happened in those games that did matter...
Games that meant something:
? Saturday: (6-9) Buffalo 0 @ (13-2) New England 31. NE was -9?. Pats lock up homefield throughout the playoffs while Bills lay down and die on the road.
? Saturday: (9-6) Seattle 24 @ (7-8) San Francisco 17. I'm trying to remember why SF was -3 for this game. It's certainly an unusual line in that Seattle needed the game to ensure they made the playoffs. A Sea loss + wins by Dallas and Minny on Sunday would have eliminated the Hawks. In any event, Seattle got the job done, but apparently ~something~ pushed this line in SF's favor.
On to Sunday...
? Minnesota and Dallas were both playing for the last playoff spot in the NFC. In the early games, Dallas gagged as a Pick Em @ (7-8) New Orleans, losing 13-7, leaving the door wide open for the Vikings. However, the Vikes also gagged in the 4:15 game. Eight-point road favorites, they lost 18-17 @ the (3-12) Arizona Cardinals... so the Cowboys advanced anyways. Cowboys in "win and you're in" position - LOSE. Vikes in similar position after seeing Dallas result - LOSE.
? The Eagles (11-4) had played on Saturday and won @ Washington. This meant the Rams with a win on Sunday would finish 13-3, lock up the #1 seed in the NFC and homefield throughout the playoffs. All they had to do was win @ (4-11) Detroit. The Rams went in as 11? point road favorites....and lost outright, 30-20. Eagles get homefield.
? Indy and Tennessee were tied in the standings (11-4) and playing for the division title & 3rd place in the conference. If they ended tied, Indy got the division. Both were playing in the early games on Sunday...and both prevailed. Tennessee at home beat (7-8) Tampa Bay 33-13, but Indy had to claw out a 20-17 road win @ (5-10) Houston, as 9-point favorites.
As far as I can tell, those were about the only games with any meaning on the final day. But in all four cases where the "must-win" (or "really-want-to-win") team was on the road, they failed to cover...three of them losing outright.
Games that had no meaning:
(4-11) Cleveland 22 @ (8-7) Cincinnati 14. Cinci was -8, and had been eliminated from playoff contention the previous week. Follows along the theory that teams that have recently been eliminated play poorly, but those that have been long out of the race may come up with a respectable effort as the season closes.
(5-10) Jacksonville 14 @ (4-11) Atlanta 21. Atlanta was -2?. Both teams were long out of the race. Home team gets the win & cover for the fans.
(6-9) NY Jets 21 @ (9-6) Miami 23. Jets cover the +3?. Despite the fact they could have (and did) tie Denver at 10-6, Miami could not make the playoffs, and they knew this going into the game.
(7-8) Chicago 3 @ (12-3) Kansas City 31. Line of KC -8. The Chiefs gave a real effort in front of the home fans despite having locked up the division & a #2 seed, while the eliminated Bears laid down on the road.
(10-5) Carolina 37 @ (4-11) NY Giants 24. Line of Car -4?. Panthers peaking at the right time keep right on rolling en route to their Superbowl appearance. This one goes against conventional logic...a team with nothing to play for playing strong on the road.
(10-5) Denver 3 @ (9-6) Green Bay 31. Line of GB -10. I remember watching this game. The Broncos absolutely did not show up for this game and clearly couldn't have cared less. Neither team had reason to win, but the Pack put on a show for the home fans at least.
(4-11) Oakland 14 @ (3-12) San Diego 21. Line of SD -6. Brutal Raiders team ends season losing 5 of 6, after playing in the Superbowl the year before. Chargers were never in the hunt all year, but manage to give their home fans a win and a cover (I see a pattern developing...).
(6-9) Pittsburgh 10 @ (9-6) Baltimore 13 (OT). Baltimore fails to cover the -5?. Sunday Night ESPN game with nothing on the line. Ravens already in as #4 seed in AFC, Steelers playing out the string for a long time, but playing tough against divisional rival.
