UPSET OF THE WEEK
Dallas over New York Giants. With all due respect to Eli Manning, the best offensive rookie on the field Sunday night will be Cowboys running back Julius Jones. He has been the bright spot in an otherwise disappointing season, and Bill Parcells' team, coming off a comeback win over the Redskins, will be motivated to knock off another division rival.
Tom Coughlin's coaching seems to have less emotional effect on his team. After a 5-2 start, the Giants have dropped eight straight. Make that nine. Cowboys 21, Giants 19.
**** OF THE WEEK
Baltimore over Miami. You can bet that the top four seeds in the AFC are happy that they probably won't see the Ravens' defense in the playoffs. Consider four of the road games the Ravens played this season -- at Philly, at New England, at Indy, at Pittsburgh, with the latter two in the past two weeks. Every team in the league -- except one of those four teams -- would go 0-4 on a stretch like that.
The Ravens finally catch a break with Miami's anemic offense, which will be overmatched. Unfortunately, that won't be enough to get them in. Ravens 20, Dolphins 13.
REST OF THE WEEK
Detroit at Tennessee. Steve Mariucci and Jeff Fisher are two of the better coaches in the league, and their respective teams should get better and healthier to rebound with better seasons next year. Lions running back Kevin Jones is making a late strong case for rookie of the year. He will keep the ball moving against Titans' depleted defense. Detroit's D struggles against teams that spread the field and throw often, however, and that's exactly what Tennessee's offense has been doing in the past month. Titans 28, Lions 27.
Cleveland at Houston. It sounds like an old AFC Central matchup, but the league's two "newest" franchises are headed in different directions. Former Browns coach Chris Palmer has found a nice home as the Texans' offensive coordinator, and he has a bright future working with David Carr, Domanick Davis and Andre Johnson. The 3-4 defense has made major strides in its third year under Dom Capers. The Browns, listless and lacking an identity, will need to get one from their new coach. Texans 17, Browns 10.
Minnesota at Washington. The Vikings should win this week, but they should win almost every week. There is no way Washington's anemic offense should be able to keep up with theirs, especially without Clinton Portis. If Minnesota continues to put the ball in Michael Bennett's hands and let Daunte Culpepper fire away downfield, it should win this most important game to get into the playoffs. If it doesn't, the organization perhaps shouldn't have picked up Mike Tice's 2005 option earlier this week. Vikings 23, Redskins 20.
Pittsburgh at Buffalo. The Bills know Dick ******'s defense -- he was an assistant coach with them last season. The Steelers know Mike Mularkey's offense -- he was their coordinator last season. The combined knowledge will be valuable to both sides' game plans, but the Steelers won't have their best players on the field to execute. Mularkey has led a great turnaround with Drew Bledsoe, Willis McGahee, Lee Evans and Eric Moulds, and that group should end the season on a positive. Somewhere in the back of their minds, however, the Bills' Week 1 last-second loss to Jacksonville lingers. Bills 19, Steelers 16.
San Francisco at New England. 49ers fans who are longing for the days of Joe Montana won't see much of Tom Brady, but it will be enough to remind them of championships past. The Niners have become the Deep Sixers, while the Pats still are on track to be the Super Bowl 39ers. The most important game of the long weekend for San Fran will be Cal in the Holiday Bowl -- it's where to get a glimpse of potential 2005 No. 1 overall draft pick Aaron Rodgers. Patriots 29, 49ers 10.
Cincinnati at Philadelphia. Andy Reid was smart in keeping his best players off the mauling artificial surface in St. Louis. This week, at home and on grass, with the team's last chance to play Terrell Owens-less offense before the playoffs, the Eagles might need a few more reps for their remaining starters. The Bengals will be able to the move the ball with Rudi Johnson and Chad Johnson, but Philly defensive coordinator Jim Johnson's blitzing schemes will keep Carson Palmer (or Jon Kitna) in check late on the road. Eagles 26, Bengals 24.
Atlanta at Seattle. If the Rams lose earlier on Sunday, the Seahawks could join the Falcons in going through the vanilla motions with backup players. That's because the teams would face each other in the second round of the playoffs if the NFC's sixth seed pulls off an upset. If Matt Schaub starts again, winning so far away from home is tough for any rookie. I'm going with the home team to finish the season strong. Seahawks 27, Falcons 17.
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Tampa Bay at Arizona. Michael Pittman will be motivated to run hard against his former team, but Brian Griese might struggle in a desert trap. There are great young receivers on both sides -- the Bucs have potential rookie of the year Michael Clayton, while rookie Larry Fitzgerald and second-year stud Anquan Boldin have become an exciting pair of Cards. I also like Dennis Green to get more from his youngsters than Jon Gruden will get from his veterans. Cardinals 22, Buccaneers 20.
Indianapolis at Denver. The Colts will have no problems with hosting the Broncos as their first-round opponents for the second consecutive year, and they pretty much have control of that. With that in mind, not showing their true explosive offensive colors is to their benefit. When the teams are likely to play each other next week, at full speed indoors, the Colts simply can spread the field, get a big lead early and force Jake Plummer into making mistakes in catch-up mode. This week in the Colorado cold, the Broncos can have good success running the ball early and setting up Plummer for big play-action passes vs. Indy's suspect secondary. Broncos 24, Colts 21.
Jacksonville at Oakland. My once Super Bowl-bound Jags gave it a valiant go this season, and now I know why they won't get into the playoffs -- they don't have much of a home-field advantage with all those empty seats at Alltel Stadium. Get behind this team, North Florida -- it should be something very special soon. Because of that, the Jags have needed to be a much tougher team on the road, and with Fred Taylor likely returning to lineup to pound through the Raiders' front seven, they won't be intimidated by the Coliseum crown. Jaguars 26, Raiders 23.
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Dallas over New York Giants. With all due respect to Eli Manning, the best offensive rookie on the field Sunday night will be Cowboys running back Julius Jones. He has been the bright spot in an otherwise disappointing season, and Bill Parcells' team, coming off a comeback win over the Redskins, will be motivated to knock off another division rival.
Tom Coughlin's coaching seems to have less emotional effect on his team. After a 5-2 start, the Giants have dropped eight straight. Make that nine. Cowboys 21, Giants 19.
**** OF THE WEEK
Baltimore over Miami. You can bet that the top four seeds in the AFC are happy that they probably won't see the Ravens' defense in the playoffs. Consider four of the road games the Ravens played this season -- at Philly, at New England, at Indy, at Pittsburgh, with the latter two in the past two weeks. Every team in the league -- except one of those four teams -- would go 0-4 on a stretch like that.
The Ravens finally catch a break with Miami's anemic offense, which will be overmatched. Unfortunately, that won't be enough to get them in. Ravens 20, Dolphins 13.
REST OF THE WEEK
Detroit at Tennessee. Steve Mariucci and Jeff Fisher are two of the better coaches in the league, and their respective teams should get better and healthier to rebound with better seasons next year. Lions running back Kevin Jones is making a late strong case for rookie of the year. He will keep the ball moving against Titans' depleted defense. Detroit's D struggles against teams that spread the field and throw often, however, and that's exactly what Tennessee's offense has been doing in the past month. Titans 28, Lions 27.
Cleveland at Houston. It sounds like an old AFC Central matchup, but the league's two "newest" franchises are headed in different directions. Former Browns coach Chris Palmer has found a nice home as the Texans' offensive coordinator, and he has a bright future working with David Carr, Domanick Davis and Andre Johnson. The 3-4 defense has made major strides in its third year under Dom Capers. The Browns, listless and lacking an identity, will need to get one from their new coach. Texans 17, Browns 10.
Minnesota at Washington. The Vikings should win this week, but they should win almost every week. There is no way Washington's anemic offense should be able to keep up with theirs, especially without Clinton Portis. If Minnesota continues to put the ball in Michael Bennett's hands and let Daunte Culpepper fire away downfield, it should win this most important game to get into the playoffs. If it doesn't, the organization perhaps shouldn't have picked up Mike Tice's 2005 option earlier this week. Vikings 23, Redskins 20.
Pittsburgh at Buffalo. The Bills know Dick ******'s defense -- he was an assistant coach with them last season. The Steelers know Mike Mularkey's offense -- he was their coordinator last season. The combined knowledge will be valuable to both sides' game plans, but the Steelers won't have their best players on the field to execute. Mularkey has led a great turnaround with Drew Bledsoe, Willis McGahee, Lee Evans and Eric Moulds, and that group should end the season on a positive. Somewhere in the back of their minds, however, the Bills' Week 1 last-second loss to Jacksonville lingers. Bills 19, Steelers 16.
San Francisco at New England. 49ers fans who are longing for the days of Joe Montana won't see much of Tom Brady, but it will be enough to remind them of championships past. The Niners have become the Deep Sixers, while the Pats still are on track to be the Super Bowl 39ers. The most important game of the long weekend for San Fran will be Cal in the Holiday Bowl -- it's where to get a glimpse of potential 2005 No. 1 overall draft pick Aaron Rodgers. Patriots 29, 49ers 10.
Cincinnati at Philadelphia. Andy Reid was smart in keeping his best players off the mauling artificial surface in St. Louis. This week, at home and on grass, with the team's last chance to play Terrell Owens-less offense before the playoffs, the Eagles might need a few more reps for their remaining starters. The Bengals will be able to the move the ball with Rudi Johnson and Chad Johnson, but Philly defensive coordinator Jim Johnson's blitzing schemes will keep Carson Palmer (or Jon Kitna) in check late on the road. Eagles 26, Bengals 24.
Atlanta at Seattle. If the Rams lose earlier on Sunday, the Seahawks could join the Falcons in going through the vanilla motions with backup players. That's because the teams would face each other in the second round of the playoffs if the NFC's sixth seed pulls off an upset. If Matt Schaub starts again, winning so far away from home is tough for any rookie. I'm going with the home team to finish the season strong. Seahawks 27, Falcons 17.
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Tampa Bay at Arizona. Michael Pittman will be motivated to run hard against his former team, but Brian Griese might struggle in a desert trap. There are great young receivers on both sides -- the Bucs have potential rookie of the year Michael Clayton, while rookie Larry Fitzgerald and second-year stud Anquan Boldin have become an exciting pair of Cards. I also like Dennis Green to get more from his youngsters than Jon Gruden will get from his veterans. Cardinals 22, Buccaneers 20.
Indianapolis at Denver. The Colts will have no problems with hosting the Broncos as their first-round opponents for the second consecutive year, and they pretty much have control of that. With that in mind, not showing their true explosive offensive colors is to their benefit. When the teams are likely to play each other next week, at full speed indoors, the Colts simply can spread the field, get a big lead early and force Jake Plummer into making mistakes in catch-up mode. This week in the Colorado cold, the Broncos can have good success running the ball early and setting up Plummer for big play-action passes vs. Indy's suspect secondary. Broncos 24, Colts 21.
Jacksonville at Oakland. My once Super Bowl-bound Jags gave it a valiant go this season, and now I know why they won't get into the playoffs -- they don't have much of a home-field advantage with all those empty seats at Alltel Stadium. Get behind this team, North Florida -- it should be something very special soon. Because of that, the Jags have needed to be a much tougher team on the road, and with Fred Taylor likely returning to lineup to pound through the Raiders' front seven, they won't be intimidated by the Coliseum crown. Jaguars 26, Raiders 23.
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