florida gators (-5)
its good to see a former mac coach (heath) having success at a big school, but im not sure arkansas is a legit contender in the sec this season. theyre still young, and their schedule has been an absolute cakewalk to this point. they have played ONE true road game in their fourteen contests this season. theres a lot of teams that could go 13-1 playing against the mutants arkansas has played so far. id like to think florida is gonna show some sack after an embarrassing effort vs. fsu last sunday. you never know what youre gonna get with donovan's guys, but this time i really think they come up with a convincing win.
providence friars (+6.5)
even though this is technically a potential letdown spot for boston college, im not even approaching it from that angle. really think providence is just the better team regardless of records. have said it before and continue to believe it: boston college has been, and always will be, a far better dog than chalk. while im layin off the moneyline, this is a game i think providence can win.
gonzaga bulldogs (pk)
this always seems to be the matchup where everyone expects gonzaga to slip up because on paper the gaels match up very well with the zaga, but it never happens. for as good as st.marys is -- and theyre very good -- gonzaga still outclasses 'em. gaels might be the chic upset pick for saturday, but this game is all about confidence; gonzaga has it, st.marys doesnt. even though these are clearly the #1 and #2 teams in the wcc, gonzaga has won the last 6 meetings by margins of 13,19,14,21,24,and 3. last year, st.marys was pointing to their huge home date with gonzaga late in the season....and they got buried by 19. zags hold the psychological edge here and just have st.marys number. i think pepperdine will end up being the team to give gonzaga trouble on the road this year.
youngstown state penguins over 135
didnt get the number i was looking for on the detroit game, but definitely like the number on this youngstown game. csu has a very strange schedule this year. they have a long extended road trip in january and then they close the season with a ton of games at home. this game is of paramount importance to them because they dont come back to the convocation center until january 27th. i think cleveland state will build enough of a cushion in this game where it doesnt turn into a half-court grinder, and i think the tempo is gonna be up and down the floor. csu was a little banged up for the last few games, and that contributed to their lack of offense. but they should be good to go today. ysu making the short road trip east, but their road defense is terrible. could never trust csu to cover that ridiculous 11.5, but think they win 77-69 or somethin like that. last year when csu was healthy these two went up and down the floor for a game in the 80s. then csu had all those injuries and suspensions and was forced to walk the ball up the floor in the rematch because they dressed 7 guys, so that score in the 120s wasnt indicative of the way these csu/ysu games normally are.
stanford cardinal under 143
arizona has been scoring a lot of points lately, but i think stanford is really gonna try and slow this game down. theres no way they can win getting into a track meet with the cats. arizona hasnt been as explosive on the road this season either (60,61,48,87) and i think thats because the opposition has controlled the tempo on 'em. stanford's effort vs. asu was pathetic on thursday, but i actually think theyll play well here. stanford has played zona very well the last few years and, while personnel and coaching has changed a bit, i think they can draw from what theyve done well and keep this game close and somewhat in the halfcourt.
detroit titans under 119
im gonna kick myself if i dont at least play this one small. had the total been in the 120s i would have hit the under very hard. not much room for error with a 119 total but i can really see this game being a 53-53 game. both teams are excellent defensive teams and both are patient on offense. raiders have been very solid defensively at home for almost two years now. detroit playing confident ball after a lame start to the season.
strong -- kent state flashes (-3) for the 1st half
last time out, i laid -6.5 in the 1h with kent and -11 for the game against eastern michigan. up 44-28 at half, i was feelin real good.
flashes fold. win by 3. screws up a potentially great day.
im going right back to em today for the first 20:00
miami has been very average away from oxford this season and kent is a dominant home team that jumps on the opposition early.
heres a pretty telling miami number:
last 4 first halves on the road for miami.
21 points
20 points
20 points
25 points.
that wont cut it in kent.
south carolina 2nd half under 70.5
georgia just not deep enough to make any sort of push in the 2nd half. carolina burns a lot of shotclock with their possessions, and since theres almost no chance unnecessary free throws in the final minute, i dont think this 2h goes anywhere near 70.5. usc got into the bonus with almost 14:00 left in the 1st half and that contributed to a lot of their points
ucla bruins over 166
early on this year, it looks like ucla is allowing the opposition to dictate tempo, which is a little surprising. bruins coming in off a double-OT game 48 hours ago- thats not gonna help their defense when it comes to stopping washington's run and gun. im gonna try and track how teams fare with washington/washington state back to back in conference because these two schools could not be more different in style of play. i think washington can drop 90 on the bruins. hopefully ucla will put up a better effort than southern cal.
its good to see a former mac coach (heath) having success at a big school, but im not sure arkansas is a legit contender in the sec this season. theyre still young, and their schedule has been an absolute cakewalk to this point. they have played ONE true road game in their fourteen contests this season. theres a lot of teams that could go 13-1 playing against the mutants arkansas has played so far. id like to think florida is gonna show some sack after an embarrassing effort vs. fsu last sunday. you never know what youre gonna get with donovan's guys, but this time i really think they come up with a convincing win.
providence friars (+6.5)
even though this is technically a potential letdown spot for boston college, im not even approaching it from that angle. really think providence is just the better team regardless of records. have said it before and continue to believe it: boston college has been, and always will be, a far better dog than chalk. while im layin off the moneyline, this is a game i think providence can win.
gonzaga bulldogs (pk)
this always seems to be the matchup where everyone expects gonzaga to slip up because on paper the gaels match up very well with the zaga, but it never happens. for as good as st.marys is -- and theyre very good -- gonzaga still outclasses 'em. gaels might be the chic upset pick for saturday, but this game is all about confidence; gonzaga has it, st.marys doesnt. even though these are clearly the #1 and #2 teams in the wcc, gonzaga has won the last 6 meetings by margins of 13,19,14,21,24,and 3. last year, st.marys was pointing to their huge home date with gonzaga late in the season....and they got buried by 19. zags hold the psychological edge here and just have st.marys number. i think pepperdine will end up being the team to give gonzaga trouble on the road this year.
youngstown state penguins over 135
didnt get the number i was looking for on the detroit game, but definitely like the number on this youngstown game. csu has a very strange schedule this year. they have a long extended road trip in january and then they close the season with a ton of games at home. this game is of paramount importance to them because they dont come back to the convocation center until january 27th. i think cleveland state will build enough of a cushion in this game where it doesnt turn into a half-court grinder, and i think the tempo is gonna be up and down the floor. csu was a little banged up for the last few games, and that contributed to their lack of offense. but they should be good to go today. ysu making the short road trip east, but their road defense is terrible. could never trust csu to cover that ridiculous 11.5, but think they win 77-69 or somethin like that. last year when csu was healthy these two went up and down the floor for a game in the 80s. then csu had all those injuries and suspensions and was forced to walk the ball up the floor in the rematch because they dressed 7 guys, so that score in the 120s wasnt indicative of the way these csu/ysu games normally are.
stanford cardinal under 143
arizona has been scoring a lot of points lately, but i think stanford is really gonna try and slow this game down. theres no way they can win getting into a track meet with the cats. arizona hasnt been as explosive on the road this season either (60,61,48,87) and i think thats because the opposition has controlled the tempo on 'em. stanford's effort vs. asu was pathetic on thursday, but i actually think theyll play well here. stanford has played zona very well the last few years and, while personnel and coaching has changed a bit, i think they can draw from what theyve done well and keep this game close and somewhat in the halfcourt.
detroit titans under 119
im gonna kick myself if i dont at least play this one small. had the total been in the 120s i would have hit the under very hard. not much room for error with a 119 total but i can really see this game being a 53-53 game. both teams are excellent defensive teams and both are patient on offense. raiders have been very solid defensively at home for almost two years now. detroit playing confident ball after a lame start to the season.
strong -- kent state flashes (-3) for the 1st half
last time out, i laid -6.5 in the 1h with kent and -11 for the game against eastern michigan. up 44-28 at half, i was feelin real good.
flashes fold. win by 3. screws up a potentially great day.
im going right back to em today for the first 20:00
miami has been very average away from oxford this season and kent is a dominant home team that jumps on the opposition early.
heres a pretty telling miami number:
last 4 first halves on the road for miami.
21 points
20 points
20 points
25 points.
that wont cut it in kent.
south carolina 2nd half under 70.5
georgia just not deep enough to make any sort of push in the 2nd half. carolina burns a lot of shotclock with their possessions, and since theres almost no chance unnecessary free throws in the final minute, i dont think this 2h goes anywhere near 70.5. usc got into the bonus with almost 14:00 left in the 1st half and that contributed to a lot of their points
ucla bruins over 166
early on this year, it looks like ucla is allowing the opposition to dictate tempo, which is a little surprising. bruins coming in off a double-OT game 48 hours ago- thats not gonna help their defense when it comes to stopping washington's run and gun. im gonna try and track how teams fare with washington/washington state back to back in conference because these two schools could not be more different in style of play. i think washington can drop 90 on the bruins. hopefully ucla will put up a better effort than southern cal.
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