Just made my largest bet ever on the NFL

[GM]

New England -2? -105 vs Indy.

Saw this when it first came out. Tried to nab it but the line moved to -3 -105 before I could confirm. I decided if I could get less than 3 again then I would be all over it. Halftime of the current game I saw -2? -105 again and grabbed it.

I am, in my estimation, a VERY conservative bettor. 99% of the time I bet the same unit size on each and every game. Perhaps I am so conservative that it hurts me. I decided a couple of months ago that I had to loosen up just a bit when the time is right. I feel the time is right here.

I do not feel the defending champs will go one and out, and I feel this line is simply a reaction to the Colts big result today. I was expecting somewhere in the neighborhood of NE -5.

Should be fun/tense next Sunday.

Go Pats!!!!!!!!!!

 

[RexBudler]

gl to you and lets go Pats :clap:

 

[skillrules]

Thanks for pointing it out. Didnt know the line was up yet, got Patriots -1.5 at Pinnacle. Playing at home and going against the Colts D, I cant believe Pats arent even a field goal favorite. Ill take my chances with a banged up D that knows how to win Superbowls.

 

[Sun Tzu]

That line really smells - begging for Pats money. If it's too good to be true, it usually is.

 

[GM]

Thanks for the vote of confidence Sun.

Oh, you said the Packers would win 2 games this playoff season? :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

[Dizzayton]

I don't like it because of the Law injury and my opinion that Manning outplays Brady in this game. Brady has shown that he will throw picks, that one in the Superbowl last year was awful, and I despite MAnning's past problems in the playoffs, I think he outplays Brady here.

 

[GM]

Didn't Ty Law miss the last 8 games of the regular season? How does that suddenly become a factor? They've been playing without him for two months!

 

[Dizzayton]

It is a factor because they are going to war with Manning. To beat the best you need your best. And Law is one of the best in the game.

 

[GM]

Yes, he is.

Regardless, I am confident. I see a lot of Colts support on the board (not to mention the line has dropped to -2 now at CRIS) and I'm a little nervous. Still, I think this is an over-reaction to Peyton & co. simply overmatching an inferior team today. Brady & the Pats, despite 2 SB's, never seem to get any respect. (And I'll qualify that by saying I am hardly a Pats fan...but you can't help but respect the results they get, regardless of who you cheer for). I've said it many times to many people....New England doesn't do anything exceptionally well, but they do EVERYTHING well. They are without a doubt the best-prepared, best-coached team out there IMO....completely lacking of me-first guys....a real team...and I admire that. That's a rare thing these days.

I've got a week to hedge if I have a change of heart, but really at this point I feel pretty good about this.

 

[Dizzayton]

Believe me, I can speak for everyone, but I certainly am not overreacting to today's performance. Starting at the end of last season Manning began to come into his own. In the playoffs he flourished before running into the Pats in Foxboro, I pounded the PAts back then because I felt like Manning would be overmatched, and luckily for me I was right.

This year, Manning has continued his domination. And there is no doubt that he has been thinking about this game the entire year. It was inevitable that it would happen. And MAnning is hungrier than any player out there. The guy wants it bad, and he will get it this weekend.

 

[DoubleDown]

GCS down to

NE -1 1/2 -112 :scared

 

[GM]

Interesting...

Oly's the only book I could find on bestbettor with a line of +3 (at -140 mind you).

Regardless, they want Indy money. Usually a pretty good indicator to go the other way elsewhere.

Line's down to -1 @ Pinn.

 

[Rcxslam]

give that Pat coaching staff two weeks to prepare for Manning? I'm guessing Manning gonna see formations he's never seen before, should confuse him a little....Pats have a pretty decent offense also ya know...don't really see Indy D stopping Pats...plus playing outside in the cold is alot different for a team built to play indoors...Pats will win the game...again...some things just never change...at least till the Colts get a D-fence

 

[Franky Wright]

The books dont want shit............
Its knowledgeable players moving the line..........................
Quit already with this the books are playing against the player stuff, ughhhhhhhhh :142lmao:

 

[Henri]

Respectfully disagree - Indy's year. I like that they played earlier this year in NE and Indy lost by 3. My concern is that Indy looks to obvious? Indy ML play seems logical.

 

[AR182]

in addition to ty law not playing, richard seymour, a key defensive lineman may not play.

 

[Dizzayton]

Indy definitely does not look too obvious in my opinion, on the contrary it takes balls to bet the Colts. I mean come on, we are talking about the Defending SUPER BOWL CHAMPS WHO HAVEN"T LOST A GAME AT HOME IN OVER 2 YEARS!!!!!!!!

Basically if you are betting the Colts you are betting that they are one bad ass team that is on a mission, otherwise how could you possibly bet against the Champs.

I like the Colts.

 

[ageecee]

how much was the wager gm?

 

[GM]

The books dont want shit............
Its knowledgeable players moving the line..........................
Quit already with this the books are playing against the player stuff, ughhhhhhhhh :142lmao:

Now come on...are you telling me that a book with a 3 doesn't want some action on the dog? And a book with a 1 doesn't want some action on the favorite? If not, why would they have their lines there?

Obviously a book with a 1 knows that they will not get any action on the dog when there are much more attractive prices to be bet out there at every book going (and vice versa with the 3). Knowledgeable players or not. (I guess Olympic doesn't have any knowledgeable players...they all play at Pinnacle?).

Anyways, when Oly is out of step with the others, I have found more times than not the side THEY NEED/WANT money on is the wrong side. Color it how you want, that's what I have observed. Whatever, it was not the reason I made this bet (since I saw this after I placed my bet)... but I am happy to see it.

Ageecee - The actual $$ amount doesn't really matter, does it? It's 5x what I normally bet on a game. I have never gone above a 2x bet on the NFL, and a big bet for me is 1.5x. Like I said, I am VERY disciplined and very rarely stray from the same bet size, game in, game out. The only other time I've bet more money on a game was MLB about 5 years ago following a stupid system. I didn't know what I was doing then. The game actually won, but I needed 3 runs from the Astros in the bottom of the 9th + a win in extra innings to cash that one. Considering it took a miracle to cash that ticket, it scared the shit out of me even though I won and haven't gone that high since.

 

[Blitz]

Long range forecast for next Sunday is for a high of 31 and low of 23...

Game is at 4:30pm so I'd say we should be looking at temps in the 20's... Manning has never won a game below 30 degrees...

just food for thought...