saturday ncaa: horizon and mac games ......

[gman2]

stock market week for me. some never-in-doubt winners....and some never-in-doubt losers. ended on a positive note with memphis, so dont want to fu.ck it up with a bad saturday.

really focusing on the mac and horizon this weekend. this is how i'm seeing the games. if anyone sees 'em differently, by all means offer a second opinion. was in the mood to write, so went a little crazy with the breakdowns. hopefully a tidbit or two can help someone in some of these gms.

the three games that i am playing:

buffalo (-3)
big play -- wisconsin-milwaukee (-8)
marshall (+1)

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buffalo/miami ...... theres no candy-coating buffalo's brick laying the last two games [ 21/54 from the floor against toledo and then 22/64 against akron ] but this is a big game for them. miami is sitting atop the mac east and buffalo has dropped 3 of 5 in conference play. if the bulls are gonna make a move and win the eastern division [like they were picked to in the preseason] then they simply cannot lose this home game to miami. redhawks have been awful on the road lately and have struggled to generate offense. their 1st half numbers on the road are shameful [21,25,20,20, and 26 points in the 1h of their last 5 away]. i really think the buffalo/miami game in february last year was the defining game of buffalo's resurgence. they went into miami, shot 57% and won 87-73. looking back, that was one of the more impressive mac wins for any team last season and i think buffalo wins by more than a few again.
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milwaukee/green bay ..... just found an 8 at pinnacle friday night. rivalry game and a battle for first place in the horizon. im not trying to slight green bay, but this game is a mismatch. milwaukee is the class of the horizon this year and its really not even close. that doesnt mean theyre gonna rip through the schedule, because home court is big in this league. but green bay has been overachieving and should really come down to earth here. this is a one-sided rivalry as well. milwaukee has won 5 of the last 6 in this series and ALL FIVE have been by double digits. green bay hasnt kept a game in milwaukee within single-digits in five years. mccants had a brutal shooting night in one of the meetings last year (2-10 from the floor) and uwm still won by 11. i just dont think uwgb thinks they can win when they travel to milwaukee. also like that milwaukee had no trouble at all with youngstown a few days ago and mccants, tucker, and tigert all played less than 25 minutes. panthers should be fresh, and should lay another beating on the phoenix.
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marshall/toledo ....... i think it might be time take the 'conference favorite' tag away from toledo because they simply are not playing well this year as a whole, and they STILL do not have a wire-to-wire dominant win, something you would expect from a team with as much talent as they have. its really puzzling. theyre not playing well away from savage, and triplett can only do so much. hes not getting any help. marshall finally arose from their early-season slumber and played up to their potential and knocked off west virginia. bottom line: both teams have underachieved. but i think marshall will use that big win as a springboard and (hopefully) get back into the mac race a little bit. theyve also got a big advantage on the inside in this game. toledo isnt very big, and marshall will likely control the interior with anderson and patton. both teams have some guys that can really shoot it, but toledo hasnt shot well on the road this year at all. if marshall has any nuts, theyll win this game.
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will add some other stuff on the rest of the mac and horizon in a bit.

 

[signalcaller]

GMAN,, Dead On with the points on Wisconsin Milwaukee. I live in Milwaukee and they have been hyping up this game. Its gonna be close to soldout in the US Cellular Arena and thats a tough place to play even when theres 5000 people. McCants is the conference POY and he has just been starting to come on with the Kansas game. He can go for 25 any night. UWM goes 10 deep and should be able to take care of a UWGB team that has played almost every game at home except for the Butler. Good Luck on the Play.
Its one of my top ones

 

[LarryTheSnake]

Gl gman- good write up. With u on Mil.

 

[gman2]

rest of the horizon:

loyola/wright ....not in a hurry to lay points with wright up in chicago, but theyre the much better team. their defense is dominating teams right now and loyola has shown me nothing to give me reason to believe theyre gonna win this game. sometimes, records can be deceptive, but loyola is bad news. but wright doesnt have enough offense for me to lay road chalk

butler/detroit .... this could easily be a game in the 50s. these two teams go at it harder than any teams ive seen in the conference. just absolute battles when they play. detroit can suffocate you defensively, but they cant shoot straight. cotton (michigan state transfer) has really helped them offensively since becoming eligible though. titans are a dangerous team. if they get it together, they can challenge milwaukee for the conference title. they already beat the panthers on the road and have the rematch next saturday. very hesitant to lay points in this series though because of how tight and low-scoring the game are.

cleveland state/illinois-chicago ..... just when cleveland state finally gets going in the right direction, they get dealt another blow. one of their key perimeter guys (niakate) has used up all his eligibility and his career is done in mid-season. kinda quirky, and certainly not good for csu. the thing is, i dont know if saturday is his last game or if he is already done (having played his last game in green bay the other night). thats what is keeping me away from this game until i found out for sure. i just know that the illinois-chicago game was the point in the season he would be done. as far as the game goes, its tough to call. illinois-chicago is not playing to their potential either right now, and theyre struggling to score points in a big way. their whole offense is cedric banks. hes damn good, but nobody else wants to shoot the ball for them. banks has taken 205 shots this year. the next closest guy is justin bowen with 106. illinois-chi beat the shit outta cleveland state in chicago last year. final score was 83-68 but it wasnt even remotely that close. uic led by 27 at halftime and they pulled their starters super-early in the 2h. but then in the rematch, csu played pretty well and showed some toughness in a losing effort. vikings are showing signs of life, and westley is coming off the 6th best scoring performace in csu history the other night (dropped 38 on wisconsin green bay). but i dont trust em in this game. have done really well picking and choosing my spots with the vikes, and i want no part of em saturday. hopefully they show some sack and continue to play well. but its a tall task.

 

[gman2]

rest of the mac:

central michigan/northern illinois ... the 'who gives a shit' game of the day in the mac. dont want any part of it, and whomever wins this game has nothing to be proud of.

kent state/ ohio university ... on paper, kent is much better. but kent is TERRIBLE in athens. if past history is anything, ohio is 47-6 the last 53 games at home vs. kent state. i cant speak for how the meetings went back in the 70s and 80s, lol. but i do know that kent has NEVER had an easy time here.

the year that kent state went to the elite 8 with trevor huffman and antonio gates, they snuck out with a win on a last-second shot. then in the last two years, ohio has been pretty bad and still played balls out vs. kent at home.

last year, kent rolled in with a 20-7 record and ohio was 10-19 at the time. bobcats won 60-59.

two years ago, kent was 17-5 and ohio was 8-12. the game was decided by 3 points.

to ohio's credit, theyve played well at home this year. theyre undefeated at the convo, although theyve played some cupcakes. but theyve actually been pretty dominant in their wins there, even against butler and san francisco.

kents the better team. but at this venue with these two teams, that means absolutely nothing. cant go against kent state after the beating they took from western michigan. but an ohio win wouldnt surprise me at all.

 

[gman2]

bowling green/western michigan ..... both teams playing very, very well right now. bg caught an enormous break when (much to my dismay....still not happy about it) eastern michigan's leading scorer pulled himself out of the lineup with a bad back. falcons still played solid ball in that game, albeit vs a depleted emu team, but credit where its due to bowling green. western michigan just got done laying the hammer down on kent state the other night. this game is impossible to call. still think bg is nothing special, but western traveling to one of the mac's toughest venues and fresh off a big win vs kent screams letdown. wmu really hammered bg in bowling green last year in a game that wasnt as close as the final score. ill pass. whomever wins this game will be overvalued in the coming week and ill probably look to go against em if the situation is right. should be a great game though regardless on saturday.

eastern michigan/akron ..... im really impressed with the way dambrot has handled the season-ending injury to wood. most teams would fold, but akron has played pretty solid ball since he went down and is coming off what is probably their best win of the season -- a 16-pt home win over buffalo in a game where they held the bulls to 33% from the floor and forced 16 turnovers. until i find out the status of bowler for emu, i gotta pass this one. if he plays, and assuming he's healthy, emich will have a pretty significant edge on the interior. buffalo lost by 16 and still outrebounded akron 48-36. emu and buffalo both have size, so that could give the zips trouble. i really want to see a total around 150 for this one. if thats the case, then i think the over is a solid play. the side is far too tough to call. no reason to bet against akron at home, as theyre taking care of business at the JAR this year. but emu is an intriguing dog if bowler plays.

 

[titan25]

Good Luck on your games

 

[spang]

FU( K Bowler, I'm going to get Zippy to bitch slap that SOB.

GL saturday, I'll be gone all day then straight to the JAR. If that A-hole doesn't play Akron looks really good. They have really turned up the defensive intensity, and are starting to realize that they can play with anybody in this league. This years Zips also have something that the previous editions didn't have: Team harmony. These guys actually like each other. Gone are the days of Tarver and Hollingsworth and their "me first" antics. I'm starting to enjoy this team a lot, as they play hard and are improving each time out,and that is all I could ask for.

 

[gman2]

spang:

read some michigan papers and theyre making it sound like its very unlikely that bowler will be available. this is what they're projecting their lineup to be tonight.

F James "Boo" Jackson Sr. 6-9 220 8.5 7.5

F Markus Austin Sr. 6-6 215 12.1 4.6

G Darryl Garrett Fr. 6-4 185 14.6 3.3

G Danny McElhinny Jr. 6-0 175 6.6 0.6

G Michael Ross Sr. 5-10 180 11.3 2.7


Coach: Jim Boone (45-83 in his fifth season at Eastern Michigan, 318-220 overall)

they also mentioned how emu has no business feeling sorry for themselves if he doesnt play since obviously akron is playing without one of their key guys as well. im staying away from this one. id like to think emich wont be as lame as they were the other night. then again, akron is playing really well at home. catch you later.

 

[AceManti1]

thanks for the wis-mil play g man

 

[Ndfan]

Thanks Gman for the wisc-mill, great call.

 

[gman2]

thanks fellas. uwm dominated every area of the game. i dont know if anyone is gonna be able to touch this team in the horizon. theyre rolling right now.

 

[Nickelback]

Nice hit on your big play as well gman