The hand writing was on the wall as parity showed its ugly side last year in the playoffs as all four conference semi-final road teams got the money for the first time in NFL history. Then in the superbowl the worst against the spread team in NFL regular season history got the money as well. This year three road teams won in the wildcard round for the first time ever and since 1992 there had been no more than one each year which is suprising to me since all teams are playing back to back weeks but in this round the advantage clearly is with the home teams and should remain for years to come.
The difference between last years road teams and this years is big. Last year all four road teams combined for a 22-10 road record in the regular season with all four having winning records. This years four have combined for a record of 13-19 straight up record with only the Colts having a winning record on the road.
Last year we had three 8-0 home teams playing in this round. All three lost the money and two lost straight up. This year we have the Steelers and the Pats with 8-0 records at home. Does it mean anything in the playoffs to take care of your business and dominate at home and then lay an egg at home in the playoffs? Has parity become that great or was last year a fluke? Well I think the later and the law of averages say so as well as one of these two teams will get the money this weekend. They have been the cream of the crop this year in margin of victory over quality opponents.
Talking about teams having winning records on the road. Did you know that the last fifteen years 29 out of the 30 Superbowl representatives had 5-3 road records in the regular season with only the Broncos in 1997 having a 4-4 record. Did you know the last 22 NFC Superbowl teams all had winning records of 5-3 or better in the regular season and I did not take this back past 1982 so it could even be more. Which bodes well for Eagles fans as they are the only remaining NFC team with a winning road record. The other teams are the Colts,Pats, and Steelers.
The NFL got what they wanted with parity in the regular season as any given Sunday any team can beat any other team no matter what the record and that is what makes the league great. Is this what they want in the playoffs as well I don't think so. They also want to put a quality product out there and if promoting one of these 8-8 teams who are just 2-6 on the road to go to the Superbowl is their script it will be an embarrasment to the league as well as screw up alot of great angles from this number crunching handicapper. Those 8-8 teams were bound to win last week as every fifteen minutes ESPN promoted no team had ever won a playoff game being 8-8 but the fact is Seattle and Green Bay were weak and the whole NFC is the weakest ever so it is possible these teams have a chance of winning this weekend but I am not buying and history says so as well.
Since 1987 eight teams have won a playoff game in the wildcard round after being 1-3 straight up in December. Those eight teams in the conference semis are 0-8 straight up and 0-7-1 against the number losing by and average score of 35-8 with seven of the eight losing by fourteen points are more and one of them by three. This angle is against Minnesota and the Jets. The skinny of this is teams shouldn't be able to turn it on back to back games if they were not playing well the end of the year. The fact is only the Vikings really backed into these playoffs. The Jets earned their way in by winning 10 games and actually didn't play all that poorly the last four games.
Since 1982 there have been four teams coming off a double revenging division playoff win of ten points or more all four lost by and average score of 35-14 with three out of the four getting the money. This is against the Vikings. Getting revenge against an archrival in the division normally takes the wind out of your sails. The vikings played there best game of the year on both sides of the ball last week. I do not expect a repeat performance as the Vikings this year after playing good games versus Dallas, Tennessee, and Jacksonville layed an egg in their next game losing 27-16 versus Phili, 34-13 versus the Giants, and 24-14 versus the Bears.
Since 1982 there have been 14 teams in the conference semi-final round playing with road revenge at the same venue they played at in the regular season. These fourteen teams were an amazing 1-13 straight up and 4-10 ats with the only winner being the Chiefs at Houston in 1993. Breaking this down more 13 of these teams came off a wildcard game and went 1-12. Whats interesting here is that all four teams that covered the number all won by exactly 3 points in the wildcard game all the other teams won by more than three except one won by one point and proceeded to go 0-9 straight up and ats losing by an average score of 31-10. The teams that won by three which is a key number in many handicapping angles had an average score of 24-23 with none of the road teams losing by more than three. If history repeats here we get the Jets( who won by exactly three points) Falcons, Eagles, and the Pats.
Looking at who has the most pressure in these games.
The pressure is on the Steelers. Both teams were 6-10 last year and the Steelers expectations after this incredible run which no one could have predicted now lies on Big Ben after thirteen consecutive wins. No pressure on Jets
Atlanta/Rams don't see anything here one way or another.
The pressure is on Phili nothing less than Superbowl is going to be good enough and if they lose this game Reid will be seconded guessed for ever here in Phili. No pressure on Vikes they shouldn't be here.
The pressure is on the Colts. Pats have won two superbowls in the last three years so they should play lose. The pressure is on Manning expectations from breaking Marinos record and this great season to finally beat his nemesis.
Will parity change things again for this round? I certainly hope not. Lets just hope the games are played on the field and there is no letter of apology going out from the NFL. Penalities and blown calls could very well be the difference in some of these games.
Good luck,
Toby Scot
The difference between last years road teams and this years is big. Last year all four road teams combined for a 22-10 road record in the regular season with all four having winning records. This years four have combined for a record of 13-19 straight up record with only the Colts having a winning record on the road.
Last year we had three 8-0 home teams playing in this round. All three lost the money and two lost straight up. This year we have the Steelers and the Pats with 8-0 records at home. Does it mean anything in the playoffs to take care of your business and dominate at home and then lay an egg at home in the playoffs? Has parity become that great or was last year a fluke? Well I think the later and the law of averages say so as well as one of these two teams will get the money this weekend. They have been the cream of the crop this year in margin of victory over quality opponents.
Talking about teams having winning records on the road. Did you know that the last fifteen years 29 out of the 30 Superbowl representatives had 5-3 road records in the regular season with only the Broncos in 1997 having a 4-4 record. Did you know the last 22 NFC Superbowl teams all had winning records of 5-3 or better in the regular season and I did not take this back past 1982 so it could even be more. Which bodes well for Eagles fans as they are the only remaining NFC team with a winning road record. The other teams are the Colts,Pats, and Steelers.
The NFL got what they wanted with parity in the regular season as any given Sunday any team can beat any other team no matter what the record and that is what makes the league great. Is this what they want in the playoffs as well I don't think so. They also want to put a quality product out there and if promoting one of these 8-8 teams who are just 2-6 on the road to go to the Superbowl is their script it will be an embarrasment to the league as well as screw up alot of great angles from this number crunching handicapper. Those 8-8 teams were bound to win last week as every fifteen minutes ESPN promoted no team had ever won a playoff game being 8-8 but the fact is Seattle and Green Bay were weak and the whole NFC is the weakest ever so it is possible these teams have a chance of winning this weekend but I am not buying and history says so as well.
Since 1987 eight teams have won a playoff game in the wildcard round after being 1-3 straight up in December. Those eight teams in the conference semis are 0-8 straight up and 0-7-1 against the number losing by and average score of 35-8 with seven of the eight losing by fourteen points are more and one of them by three. This angle is against Minnesota and the Jets. The skinny of this is teams shouldn't be able to turn it on back to back games if they were not playing well the end of the year. The fact is only the Vikings really backed into these playoffs. The Jets earned their way in by winning 10 games and actually didn't play all that poorly the last four games.
Since 1982 there have been four teams coming off a double revenging division playoff win of ten points or more all four lost by and average score of 35-14 with three out of the four getting the money. This is against the Vikings. Getting revenge against an archrival in the division normally takes the wind out of your sails. The vikings played there best game of the year on both sides of the ball last week. I do not expect a repeat performance as the Vikings this year after playing good games versus Dallas, Tennessee, and Jacksonville layed an egg in their next game losing 27-16 versus Phili, 34-13 versus the Giants, and 24-14 versus the Bears.
Since 1982 there have been 14 teams in the conference semi-final round playing with road revenge at the same venue they played at in the regular season. These fourteen teams were an amazing 1-13 straight up and 4-10 ats with the only winner being the Chiefs at Houston in 1993. Breaking this down more 13 of these teams came off a wildcard game and went 1-12. Whats interesting here is that all four teams that covered the number all won by exactly 3 points in the wildcard game all the other teams won by more than three except one won by one point and proceeded to go 0-9 straight up and ats losing by an average score of 31-10. The teams that won by three which is a key number in many handicapping angles had an average score of 24-23 with none of the road teams losing by more than three. If history repeats here we get the Jets( who won by exactly three points) Falcons, Eagles, and the Pats.
Looking at who has the most pressure in these games.
The pressure is on the Steelers. Both teams were 6-10 last year and the Steelers expectations after this incredible run which no one could have predicted now lies on Big Ben after thirteen consecutive wins. No pressure on Jets
Atlanta/Rams don't see anything here one way or another.
The pressure is on Phili nothing less than Superbowl is going to be good enough and if they lose this game Reid will be seconded guessed for ever here in Phili. No pressure on Vikes they shouldn't be here.
The pressure is on the Colts. Pats have won two superbowls in the last three years so they should play lose. The pressure is on Manning expectations from breaking Marinos record and this great season to finally beat his nemesis.
Will parity change things again for this round? I certainly hope not. Lets just hope the games are played on the field and there is no letter of apology going out from the NFL. Penalities and blown calls could very well be the difference in some of these games.
Good luck,
Toby Scot
