AFC Title

[MrChristo]

Play-offs: 2-1-1

NE @ Pits UNDER 37

This total has been hugely inflated by the 34-20 scoreline earlier in the season.
However in that game Dillon did not play for NE and they rushed the ball only 5 times!!!...Threw it over 40 times! They will have a much more balanced offense in this game.
Pittsburgh are very tough defensively at home, allowing only 13.4 ppg, and held the Jets to only 3 offensive points last week.
NE have stepped up defensively when it counts...allowing only only 7, 7 and 3 points in the last 3 weeks.
The fact that NE are 3-11 under in their last 14 play-off games shows that they believe defense win big games.
Bad weather is always a big possiblity at this time of the year aswell.

Big Ben looked a bit lost last week, so I have to think they take it out of his hands this week in such a big game. Steelers wil run, run, run and then run and rely on their strength to win the game, defense.
I won't be surprised if Rothlesberger doesn't throw a pass over 10 yards.

Total already down to 36 in places...Like the under the more I think about it.

Good Luck all

 

[AR182]

mrchristo,

i do also...how about the total in the phil. game ?


good luck.

 

[MrChristo]

Thanks AR.

I'm actually leaning under in the other game aswell....Total is going to be inflated after the Falcons demolition job last week.

Philli offense looked good...But McNabb had all the time in the world to pass the ball. Atlanta pass rush will do a much better job of getting to him.
Philli obviously much better defensively than SL...and Atlanta still rush more times than they throw the ball.
Take out the Wk. 17 exhibition game, and Philli haven't allowed more than 17 @ home all season.

Tough to lay any $$ on this Falcons team tho...Has there ever been a more inconsistant team??

 

[cool#9]

i already hammered the under.why so high for these great d's?in a title game? looks to easy,but sometimes you have to just do it.good luck.

 

[gardenweasel]

i`m gonna use the squeelers and the under in a teaser......and i just had to take the 3....


i hate the steelers worse than i hate peter angelos.....i just think that their physicality matches up well with the pats.....the poor jets performance sets this line up perfectly,imo...but,how many teams give up a special teams AND a defensive t.d. and still win?.......albeit,very luckily....this may be pittsburgh`s year....

i`m just hoping that roethlisberger manages the game....and plays conservatively....

the pats are 13-0 on the second go round vs qb`s the last few years.....i don`t like bucking trends....but giving the 3 to pittsburgh at home was enough to suck me in....

keep up the excellent work,mr c......

 

[arrow]

i'm a firm believer and why i'm staying away from this total is that the opportunity for big touchdowns with play action are easy seven points and therefore a 36-37 total. i really disagree and think pitt will throw deep several times on say second and 2 , 3, or 4 because they know they can pick up a couple yards on this undersized n.e. front. good luck though as this man is a solid caper and gives good information weekly, just staying away from it my self as i feel pitt is a stronger play.

 

[jpblack34]

Chris, been looking at this total myself. Agree with arrow that the possibility of a big play on either side of the ball gives that total a scratch your head sensation. Going to wait it out to see if it goes to 3.5 and work off a teaser with pit and under.

On a side note, talked to bomber the other day, and he was all talk about Essedon winning the wooden spoon..uh.uh, i mean the premiership next year. Any thoughts? Best of luck this week my man. JB

 

[bombercoops]

Like the total also 'C' and will be throwing it in a teaser so as to get a few more points to work with.
Black, Essendon and wooden spoon don't fall in the same sentence my friend. I think you got confused as to which team christo and I barrack for. LOL! Joking 'C'. Looking forward to getting our threads going in 'off the wall'. Black, also a bit critical considering you're a richmond fan!

 

[jpblack34]

2005- The Year of the TIGER!!!

Anyhoo, what about the side on the Philly game Mr. C, really up in the air about that one. JB

 

[Slick 1]

New England defense will be much more prepared for this game than they were in the previous matchup. In the first matchup the Pats were coming off of a huge division game with the Jets who were also undefeated going into that game so NE wasn't in a good spot because that was a huge division game. Also Ty Law got hurt early in that Pitt game and they weren't prepared to play without him like they are now, and Pitt came into the NE game off of a bye week so their offense had two weeks to prepare for them and were well rested. Plus the fact that Corey Dillon and Deion Branch didn't play in the previous game didn't allow the Pats to play any ball control in that one. I like Mr. Christo's thinking here as these are two dynamite defenses and the weather is expected to be cold in the lower 20's.

 

[MrChristo]

Thanks for the well-wishes guys. :toast:

I hear what you're saying arrow, I just think Cowher might play this one ultra-conservative after Ben's performance last week.
I reckon he'd much prefer to punt it 10 times than turn it over once. (Well, obviously!...But I think he'd prefer his defense making big plays than the offense pushing for them.)

But, I've been way off before!

bomber, JB...must be nearly time to start up a thread in Off The Wall mustn't it?...Not long to go now! :clap:

 

[MrChristo]

Atlanta @ Philli under 40.5 (-130)

Not much else needs to be said about this game that hasn't already I guess.
Figured it to be a low-scorer all along...The wind and snow is the icing rolleyes: ) on the cake.

 

[60 SEC ASSASSIN]

GL on both totals MrC. They both look like winners