AFC & NFC Championship Analysis & Thoughts on Betting Super Bowl AFC -5.5 Right Now!

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AFC & NFC Championship Analysis & Thoughts on Betting Super Bowl AFC -5.5 Right Now!

Playoff Record 2-0 +$2,000

Hi everyone,

I just made my 3rd and 4th wagers for this NFL post-season...I'm gonna make sure I guarantee myself a profit regardless of what happens...and I will make only one more play on the Super Bowl to close out this NFL season...

Here is my take on the championship games - first of all i am taking the 2 teams i feel will win the games, and I like them to cover the spreads as well...

AFC Championshp Game:

I wagered $550 to win $500 on the NE Patriots -2.5...now I see this line going to 3 several places, and if you like it and can get less than 3 - lock in now...be interesting to watch the money flow on this game - although i do think there will be some equal interest on both sides. I set my line before i saw the "real vegas line" at a pick...i really believe that this line is set very cleverly...you might say "well if you set the line at pick, and line is -2.5 for NE - then the value has to be w/ Pitt right?" - well my answer in this case is NO...psychology is such a huge part of this game w/ us vs. the oddsmaker - the way i see it, the sportsbooks want Pittsburgh money...do you think they were sweating the Indy game yesterday - well i don't...the way to attract the Pitt money is to make them an infamous "home dog" - now i know home dogs historically perform very well - and i do always look to be the dog first - always - but in this case - you just have to go w/ the NE Patriots...now i loved them against the Colts - but honestly did anyone believe they would dominate Manning & company as much as they did? i mean only 3 pts. - no td's by the colts offense that put up in the 30's and 40's all year long? Belicheck knows best and he has the recipe that = Ben Roethlisberger's first loss...yes Pitt is tough to play, but yes if there is a team to overcome the conditions - it's NE...they defy the odds - they plug in backups who play pro bowl type football...this is the best team around to invest your money in...as always - there are no guarantees - if Pitt wins, they get all the credit in the world...i'll bet that NE comes more ready to play than Pitt - and NE covers the -2.5...another reason to bet it now is for a potential middle opportunity - who knows if the line gets pounded by Pats bettors and rises to -3.5 or -4 - might consider hitting Pitt and going for the 3 or 4 pt. margin and a middle...just a thought...during the regular season i bet a few public favorite games early strictly knowing that the line would rise a few points around the key numbers to give me a nice middle opportunity...heck if you can bet one side at -2.5 and the line rises to -4.5 or -5 - and you bet $550 to win $500 on both - and final score ends on 3, or 4 - you are really risking $50 to win max of $1,000 - hit a few of those in the reg season - and really is neat when you hit them...in my opinion though - NE by 10...

NFC Championship Game:

In the NFC, i like the Philadelphia Eagles to win and cover the -4.5 spread...i locked in a $550 to win $500 wager on them...so much is being made about no TO and everything - well as we saw vs. Minn - this is more of a TEAM and is the closest thing the NFC has to matching the Patriots TEAM concept...the defense is playing phenominal - and i'm betting that they will not totally stop - but can contain Vick - and will come down to forcing Vick to beat them w/ his passing - something i believe will not happen...offensively, Phily will run the ball - and they will have success vs. the Falcons corners...Atlanta is close, but still not ready to be a Super Bowl Team - my money says 4th time is a charm for Phily...lay the points - again bet it now at -4.5 - faves tend to rise - and as always look for middle opportunities - never know - I think the line will stay around the 4-5 range, but if it goes up to a 6 - consider trying for a middle...the lines of -4.5 or -5 are always interesting - because it's kind of saying they don't really know which way the game is going to be bet the most...i think overall they will suck in a lot of Atlanta money - now if the line was -2.5 or -3, more inclined for bettors to bet Philly - setting it at -4.5, will be just enough to get the Atlanta money...I had my own line set at Philly -6 - so appears to be value using the line i came up with - although as i said w/ the NE game, just because you make a line and it's different from the oddsmakers, doesn't necessarily mean you are right, and that there is value - you have to look into the psychology of where the books want you to have your money - and go the other way...i feel they want Atlanta money, so i'll take Philly...I also like Phily to win by 10...

In conclusion - i like both NE -2.5 and Phily -4.5...i see double digit wins by both clubs - i am sure a lot will be tempted to tease these games - my take is to just bet them straight up - don't worry about the points - i'm pretty sure both of these aren't going to be 3 pt. games - w/ at least one being decided by 10-14 points...it's tempting to take the dog and tease - like Pitt +8.5 - but i think the books are going to make a killing on teasers this weekend...i'd stay away and bet both faves w/ the current point spread...be very surprised if they don't at least split, but i like both of them to cash...

Now - i have a question i'd like some feedback from all you solid madjack cappers - if you had to bet the Super Bowl right now - I see the line at my book is AFC -5.5 and NFC +5.5 - who would you take TODAY or at least before the weekends games...as most probably do - i like the AFC, whether it be Pitt or NE to beat either Phily or Atl...I'm thinking about placing my wager now at the AFC -5.5 line - i think the value is there right now- because if Atl gets there, either Pitt or NE should be at least a 7-9 point favorite in my opinion...if Phily gets there, and say Pitt gets there - well then i see more of a -3 type of spread...i'm thinking it will be NE vs. Phily - and thnk NE would be a 7 pt. fave...please give me your take on it - if you think it's better to take the AFC now, because i like the AFC to win it all - or better to wait until we know who the teams are...in all my years wagering - i have never bet the game before knowing the teams - wonder if any of you have in the past and had a good or bad experience doing so...also what intrigues me is the possibility of a nice middle, if the teams are determined to be a bigger mismatch by the oddsmaker - on the flipside do people see value in taking NFC +5.5 now, thinking the AFC will not be favored by that much? Any input is appreciated...think others may find this interesting as well

Interested in all your input...I appreciate the cappers here - good luck to all of you rest of the playoffs & SB & w/ the other sports...gl to all!!!

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i think if ne plays atl the line would be 6-,7 if pitt plays them i think its a 4,4-.
If ne plays philly, its 4-,5-, and if pitt plays philly its 3, 3-. your saying you like philly and ne in the super bowl, i think i would wait because i think you can get equal to a better line, especially if philly happens to trounce atl at home and pitt plays n.e. to a field goal which will certainly happen. Myself i like pitt so i would definitely wait, because i think pitt on a neutral field will be a 3 point favorite over philly. Good luck to all your bets!

 

[SourDoughJoe]

The same 2 teams with the best records in the AFC over 2 weeks ago are playing each other and the same 2 teams with the best records in the NFC over 2 weeks ago are playing each other, but the Super Bowl line over 2 weeks ago was
AFC -7. Now it's -5.5? Looks like they're looking for AFC money. Just a thought.

SDJ

 

[HoopsGuru]

i disagree joe, i feel vegas thought the eagles would choke and they hung a 7 out there so they wouldn't get burnt. now they realize they should go to the big game and don't want people getting the eagles +7 before the real game comes out and they get middled bad when people take pats -4 or steelers -2.5/3.

 

[Brick]

Just as another possible way to play it , if you really believe the AFC team will win you can take NE at +155 or Pitt at +245 right now to win the SB. If you play NE as you sound inclined to do, then you present a very nice middle opportunity in the SB getting either the 3-7 with Phil or 7-9 with Atl that you predict or just let the favorite ride at +odds to win the game outright. Just a thought. GL

 

[GM]

I was just thinking about this this morning and was disappointed to see the line had dropped this much. It was NFC +7 as late as this past Saturday.

Lines as I see them...completely my guesses...

Atl
NE -9

Atl
Pitt -7?

Phil
NE -6

Phil
Pitt -4?

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Ya, they may seem on the high side, but a lot of times Superbowl lines are higher than the norm. I'm sure some site has actual lines on the 4 matchups....that's what I'd put them at now though.

I don't see the Falcons getting a lot of respect. I also don't give them much of a chance of winning this weekend.

In any event, I'd give the NFC some consideration at this point, even at this lower line. It think there is a bit of value here. If Philly is very impressive this weekend then you probably won't get a line even as good as this. Seeing as both participants should have pretty good D...pts may be at a premium. For that matter Under 45 is looking fairly attractive.

I like Brick's line of thinking too.

 

[GM]

Just found lines on this @ CRIS...wow, I was pretty close. Maybe I should be on the other side of the counter. :lol: Actual CRIS lines...

Atl
NE -9

Atl
Pitt -6?

Phil
NE -5

Phil +3 -115
Pitt -3 -115

Oddly enough, they have -115 on both sides of the Phil/Pitt matchup, but -110 on all other matchups. :shrug:

 

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Thanks guys for the feedback - really appreciate it...i think i may just sit tight and wait to see the results of the games, and watch how things play out...also more i was thinking there is always the "unexpected" factor - like who knows - NE could win and Brady could get hurt or Dillon could tear his ACL - you just never know - injuries are a part of the game - and you definitely don't like losing your superstars now...could go on the flipside and NFC representative could have a major contributor get injured (example Vick goes down in the 4th, Falcons still win - line would be very lopsided in this case) - will be interesting to see initial line when the 2 teams are decided - taking NE or Pitt to win SB also intriguing - i do like NE to win it all - but i'd hate to take them now, then have them lose - then i have 2 losing wagers...the Pitt at +250 is intriguing - because i firmly believe AFC takes the SB - and if NE loses, that means i'd lose my NE wager, but have Pitt +250 in the SB to win it...i'll give it some thought - but i'll probably just wait and decide when the real line comes out...thx for input - gl guys...

 

[GM]

Went back and re-read your initial post...saw you were looking for input on anyone who had bet the game before knowing the teams. I can say I have done it once.

2000 - I bet Under 45 on AFC/NFC before the playoffs began. Seemed like an inordinately high total at the time. I figured as long as Minn, Oak & Indy didn't make it to the big game that was a very good number...and if one of them did make it it was probably no worse than what I'd get on gameday. I wasn't too high on any of those teams as it was. I got pretty lucky to get Balt/NYG as the matchup. The total for that game was 33. I won my Under 45, but would have lost had I bet Under on gameday. That's the only time I can recall betting in advance of knowing the teams.

 

[MrChristo]

Went back and re-read your initial post...saw you were looking for input on anyone who had bet the game before knowing the teams. I can say I have done it once.

2000 - I bet Under 45 on AFC/NFC before the playoffs began. Seemed like an inordinately high total at the time. I figured as long as Minn, Oak & Indy didn't make it to the big game that was a very good number...and if one of them did make it it was probably no worse than what I'd get on gameday. I wasn't too high on any of those teams as it was. I got pretty lucky to get Balt/NYG as the matchup. The total for that game was 33. I won my Under 45, but would have lost had I bet Under on gameday. That's the only time I can recall betting in advance of knowing the teams.

I think that's the play again this year too, GM.

Under 44.5 in the SB, when one of the teams will be Pittsburgh or NE is pretty huge I would have thought.
If Pits/Philli both win through there's no way the game total will be over 40!

In fact, I have to believe that the game total won't be this high whoever plays in the SB.
I mean, if Philli/Atl is 41 and falling then why would one of these teams playing 2 of the best defenses in the NFL be any higher?

 

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GM & MrChristo - great input - and you know what - i like your reasoning about the under - and at 45 - locking in under right now may be the best SB play out there...i also believe the total will be around 41 or 42...maybe a good shot at a middle as well...i can't see the total being any higher than 45 once the 2 teams are detemined - and if it is i am DEFINITELY hitting the under - the total will probably be set higher than it should, knowing people love betting the over...have to give this some thought...

 

[GM]

MrC - The thing is when it comes to the Superbowl the totals in recent years have tended to be pretty high. For any regular season matchup between Philly and either NE or Pitt there's no way you'd get a posted total over 40. But when it comes to the Superbowl it seems the stats can go out the window.

Recall Tampa Bay scoring 48 on Oakland 2 yrs ago (not to mention they allowed 21 as well). I know Oak's D was not a strong point, but TB didn't score 48 on anybody, ever! 61 total pts scored last year between two pretty defensive teams, Car & NE.

I'll probably still take the Under now though and then take a shot at that middle next week, if it's there. If they put up a 45 or 46 for the actual Superbowl matchup the Under is going to get pounded, isn't it?

 

[IX_Bender]

Also, there is a big difference in the weather for Pittsburgh and Philadelphia on Sunday and the conditions in Jacksonville in two weeks. These total numbers are set for a reason.

Assuming favorites win (just for fun) the total for the SB for Phil/NE would be within 2 pts of that posted number IMO. I wouldnt try and middle 2pts on a SIDE, much less a TOTAL.

Assuming an underdog like Pittsburgh wins, we can all agree that the total would be lower, but at that point (if you bet the under and think Pitt will win) arent you better off playing the Steelers on the ML @ +140 than trying to arbitrage a 5-7 pt middle on a TOTAL?

 

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Updated 2005 record

NFL Playoffs: 2-0 +$2,000
NCAA Basketball: 11-5 +$2,340
NBA: 1-2 -$220
Overall record: 14-7 +$4,120

Can't wait for these games to start! Here's what i got going - firmly believe pointspread will not come into play today, winner will cover, although that Phily line is creeping up higher - that's why i locked in to the faves right away last Sunday:

Phily -4.5
Risk $550 to win $500

NE -2.5
Risk $550 to win $500

Also - i locked into the AFC to win the Super Bowl today - thanks for all the feedback - way i view it, i like the AFC to win the SB - and point spread most likely will not come into play, but i see 3 scenarios where AFC favored - from what i've come up with i see NE favored by 4.5 or 5 over Phily, or NE favored by 8 over Atlanta, or Pitt favored by 6 or 7 over Atlanta, only scenario i see the line possibly lower is i would guess it would be Pitt -3 vs. Phily...so i took the gamble and i think worst case scenario is line comes out AFC by -3...but as i said, i think the SB comes down to picking the winner, not worrying about spread - i'll take the AFC this year...so locked into this:

AFC to win Super Bowl -4.5
Risking $550 to win $500

I guess it paid to wait a little - earlier in the week the line was at -5.5, and i did debate on the under, which i see is now at 44...more i analyzed it - the total will be a no play for myself...there is something about the Super Bowl that just makes it so hard to take under - take a look at historical scores - teams tend to score more in the SB...even if you have 2 solid defensive clubs, the scoring tends to be higher - so i'll stick w/ AFC to win the big one...

GL - should be some great games - and honestly we are in for a treat - both teams playing in the championships games in each conference truely deserve to be there - and i hope i capped the games right...gl to all!

 

[GM]

Sorry to see you're on the other side. I locked into NFC +6 on Wednesday. Remote chance we could both win I guess, though not a whole lot of games end with a differential of 5.

My way of thinking...I am pretty strong on the Eagles and feel they will win today. +6 is better than I would get on either Eagles matchup next week. And if Pitt also wins today I have a shot at a 3 point middle if I want it. I also took Under 44?, but for less.

Today I am on:

Philly -5 (1x)
Philly -2 (2.5x) (A sportsbook I used to be with had a line mover special...10% bonus PLUS move the line 3 pts in your favor on either game today. I already liked the Eagles, but getting a chance to move the line across the 3 seemed like the best value on the board to me).

Haven't got a thing on the NE/Pitt game yet. I am still on the fence. If the Philly game goes well today I may just sit that one out entirely. I really want to take Pitt there but just can't pull the trigger. Doesn't seem right they should be home dogs, but NE's got the experience....so I'm stuck.

GL today.

 

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Took Atl 2H +3
Risking $550 to win $500

Figure i'll give a shot at the middle...eliminate some risk - can't help but think Phily could win this by 4, thus losing by a hook - this way if phily wins by 5, 6 win both, win by 7 win original, push 2nd half, worst case, split and down $50 - i'll sit back & hope for middle - gl....

 

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Well game went as i originally capped it - Eagles really came out strong and played the perfect 2nd half...try for the middle failed...but once in a while i like to take a shot...when the game was sitting at 14-10 had the looks of being a close game - so now on to the next game - already have NE -2.5...and i've decided to add NE -.5 1st half - NE has a tendancy to get on the board first...and i see them going to the half w/ the lead...


Adding NE -.5 1st half
Risking $550 to win $500

GL & go pats!

 

[Save It]

Adding one more - watched the line movement and got what i wanted:

Pitt/NE under 37
Risking $550 to win $500

GL!

 

[Save It]

Well overall a good day - analysis for both game lines were correct...winners w/ NE, Phily, NE 1H, lost w/ Atl 2H and NE under...3-2 overall for +$400...i'll take it - locked in on AFC for -4.5 this morning to win SB - love NE to win & cover...gl guys

Updated 2005 record

NFL Playoffs: 5-2 +$2,400
NCAA Basketball: 12-6 +$2,310
NBA: 1-2 -$220
Overall record: 18-10 +$4,490