NCAA Picks, 1/16/05-1/22/05

[BGFalcon]

YTD: 12-7-1, +4.3 units

Sunday Pick:
Michigan St. +1.5 over Wisconsin: This is a numbers play. I have Sparty as a 6 point favorite on a neutral court. Even with home court (4pts) they are still a two point favorite. I'll take the bonus point and a half. Look for MSU's balance to be the difference in a good game between two well-coached, physical teams.

 

[BGFalcon]

Results: 0-1, what a bad beat.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Exactly why my bankroll has slowly disappeared in the last two weeks. I really believe it takes an incredible amount of luck to win in college basketball. Most of the time I would call this a bad beat, but I am getting so accustomed to losses like this it doesn't even phase me any longer. If I had any discipline, I would pack it in following the Super Bowl.

How does the leading free throw shooting team in the nation miss the front end of two one and ones? How does Illinois not score in the final two and a half minutes yesterday, with their starters in, to lose ATS by a half a point?

This was the right side at 2:30 in the morning when I first played it as a pick 'em and it was the right side again this morning at 9:30, but it just doesn't seem to make any sense right now.

 

[BGFalcon]

Monday: No picks. I like gman's Detroit pick but not enough to play it. My numbers show the edge to Loyola but I don't think Cotton's effect on the Titans has been accurately incorporated into the numbers. I'll pass unless we see some major line movement.

 

[BGFalcon]

One total:
Detroit/Loyola-Chicago over 123: Since December 4, Loyola has held two opponents to under 60 points, Wright St (who shot 36%) and Cleveland State (also 36% and 21 TO's). They are giving up 68 for the year. Detroit is not exactly an offensive powerhouse but they have scored 67, 75, 57, and 72 in their last 4 games. The 57 point game was against Wright St. where Cotton and Thues combined to shoot 10-29 from the floor. I see Detroit scoring 65 to 67 in this one which means Loyola needs to get around 58. They have failed to that 3 times this year. With the emergence of Cotton in the Detroit lineup and the improved shooting of Loyola (72% FT, 37% 3pt FG in last 5 games) this game should go over 123.

 

[BGFalcon]

Detroit did a good job defensively holding Loyola to less than 40% from the field. Both teams combined shot 58% from the line which makes it difficult to go over.

Monday results: 0-0-1
YTD: 12-8-2, +3.2 units

 

[BGFalcon]

Tuesday pick:
Michigan St. -9.5? (1st half) over Purdue: I'm still shook over that meltdown against the Badgers but I doubt if the Spartans are. I'm sure Izzo ripped their ass for playing so soft at the end of the game. They are going to come out and take it to the Boilermakers who haven't had to travel much this year and certainly not to a place like East Lansing. I don't know about covering the 19 for the game but if the 1st half line is 10 or less, take it.

 

[BGFalcon]

Might have a pick later today if we get some line movement on BG/Ball St.

 

[Carl Spackler]

BG is +3 (+100) on Pinnacle right now, so that one could move in favor of the Falcons as the day goes on. Ball State is undefeated at home, but they have not played anyone in those six games and they have struggled. I don't think they are good enough defensively to be laying points to a quality team. BG already has two road wins in the MAC, and there only loss in the conference came to the team that is clearly the class of the league.

 

[BGFalcon]

It's 3.5 now. If it gets to 4 it is playable.

 

[vyrus858]

I have a good feeling about BG tonight myself, taking it ML and +3.5...what do you think...I think BG takes this one after Ball St sweeped them last year, but I could be just aiming out of my ass lol

 

[BGFalcon]

BG +4 over Ball St.: Going on the road hasn't been a big problem for BG. The Falcons' physical play will be the difference here in a close contest. Take the points.

 

[vyrus858]

well i have them ml and hte points, lets hope they win outright...either way we will see best of luck BGFalcon

 

[BGFalcon]

One more:
Alabama/Mississippi St. under 141.5: Too many points in what looks to be a close game. If it stays close, the second half should be relatively low-scoring. I have it at 134.

 

[BGFalcon]

Results: 0-3

Wednesday Pick:
Akron PK over Marshall: This team has been gaining confidence each game. Going to Marshall won't be easy but I have Akron as an 8 point favorite on a neutral court. This line will be -2 or more by gametime.

 

[BGFalcon]

Results: 1-0

 

[BGFalcon]

Thursday:
No picks. I laid 16.5 with UWM last night but that is not available anymore.

 

[BGFalcon]

Saturday:
Wisconsin +1 over Michigan: I had Wisconsin as a 4 point favorite so getting a point here is nice. Except for the debacle at Indiana, this has been a very solid Wisconsin team. The shoot the ball well (especially from 3), rebound and get to the free throw line (they have made almost as many as their opponents have attempted). The only concern I have is that they have not been forcing as many turnovers in the conference as they had been earlier in the season. Michigan is not terrible but they are very inconsistent. They can go to Iowa City and get a win but then go to Indiana and not be able to hit a shot. They are certainly not the team that should be laying points.

Minnesota +5 over Michigan St.: Please note that I am not picking against them because of the bone job they gave us against Wisconsin, I just think Minnesota is not getting the respect here that they deserve. What's not to like about this home dog? They are good defensively, they have size and enough athleticism to compete with anyone in the Big Ten. Sparty, on the other hand, has been disappointing lately. Don't get me wrong, they are a good team. But, they seem a little out of sync offensively. They don't seem to know if they are a half-court team or up-tempo. I think Izzo will be pushing them to pound the ball inside to Davis (which they should have been doing all along) but Hagen will be able to hold his own in that matchup. I see a close game in the low 60's so I'll take the 5 points.

 

[BGFalcon]

Two more:
CMU +14.5 over Akron: Too many points for Akron to lay. They have been playing well but CMU has enough offense to stay within 14.5.

Ohio St. +2.5 over IU: Indiana protects their home floor pretty well but the Buckeyes are a good team. They should wear down the Hoosiers in the second half for the straight up win.

Northern Illinois -5 EMU: Not much has changed for EMU over the past few weeks--they still don't guard anyone. NIU will take advantage of this to grab one of the few wins they will be able to manage in the very competitive MAC.

 

[BGFalcon]

Actually, it was three more.