monday ncaa basketball .....

gman2

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was out of town the last day and a half, but just wanted to say thanks to those who offered some nice comments or words after the toledo/bowling green game. for those who put the blind faith in that post and went with the rockets -- thanks. that trust is appreciated. really felt that was the best value on a mac game all year and i take my posting of such a strong play seriously. was very confident it would win. didn't get the moneyline, but the +3.5 more than atoned for that as well as covered a few incidental plays earlier in the day.

having said that, im pissed toledo couldnt get that outright win after playing such a dominant first half. the game should never have come down to the final shot. bg rallied off that crowd in a big way, but there were stretches in that game where toledo just really outclassed them and there were stretches where triplett looked like a man among boys, getting any shot he wanted and just taking the ball to the basket at will.

on an unrelated mac note -- akron looks to be for real. holy shit are they playing well. to me, dambrot is coach of the year in the mac if the zips keep this solid play up. they are smashing teams right now and those young kids are only gonna get better.

also, sun tzu -- thanks for villanova. easiest friggin money of the day.

monday:

rutgers +5.5
rutgets +200

knights are abysmal on the road, but they defend the RAC very well. cant remember the last time a big-time opponent has come in there and just rolled. it doesnt happen often. syracuse has a recent history of poor play at rutgers too. my main concern about the scarlet boys is the free throw masonry (66%). whats ridiculous is that syracuse is worse (65%). under is probably the way to go here as well. but i think rutgers will play well enough to have a very realistic shot to win the game.
 

pirate fan

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Gman, I play mostly the big east being a ND fan and living near syracuse and I love Rutgers myself tonight. GL :)
 

Bill

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Until last year, I lived next door to Rutgers and you are right about the RAC. It is a tight venue with 6-7,000 and the noise seems amplified but this is not as good a Rutgers team as in the last couple of years and they are young (only one senior). That said, Cuse may be looking a little forward to their upcoming matchup with Pitt and not taking us as a significant challenge within the conference.

Neither team is very good from the stripe which is a little different for Rutgers, and IF we can slow it down a little and try to bottle up the inside (foul Warrick everytime he touches the ball) and get a little ref assistance, we have a shot.

I will take the points in this one (medium bet) and hope for the SU but cannot play it.

GL, Bill
 

Save It

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Gl guys - looks like we are head to head tonight as i'm on Syracuse...i'll be very surprised if Syracuse is not up for this one...should be a great game - gl to you all...
 

gman2

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cris has the lines up for tuesday already. cant pass this one up.

ball state (+5) over akron

two surging teams who are both playing really well right now. two of the most athletic teams in the conference. gonna be a great basketball game.

but ball state has a big edge in experience and thats enough for me to play 'em, because these two teams are almost mirror images of each other. really think ball state's experience, along with akron's youth and erratic free throw shooting, will keep the zips from ever pulling away. no clue who wins, but do believe ball state covers.
 

Bankonit

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Just wanted to say thanks! :)

Keep up the great work and thanks for the Toledo pick. :clap:

Best of luck!
 

spang

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'Senior Terrance Chapman is listed as day-to-day after results from an MRI Sunday were not serious in nature . . . Chapman injured his left shoulder at Western Michigan."

I'm hoping that this guy does not go tuesday, he's a rebounding machine. A bit early to say so, but I see this as the pivotal game on the schedule for my boys. It should be a great game, and right now its a tough call at -5.
 

gman2

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spang:

i agree- this is a very important game for akron. both teams are playing very confident ball. keep my posted on chapman. for all the stuff that i try to keep up on in the conf, i was unaware that he got nicked up at western saturday. im on bsu regardless, but will keep it smaller if he doesnt go. think the experience is whats very key here. and stovall has been big for them despite some poor shooting.
 

DirtyBirds

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A stone's throw from Philly
quick question for you gman:
what web site or sites do you use to see how the public is betting? to see where the money is etc... anyway thanks for your work as always and gl with your rutgers pick tonight, looks like everybody and their brother in law in on cuse. my site has 98% on cuse ml. but thats sportsbook and i dont know if that is a good measure of how the public is betting.
 

gman2

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dirty:

while its not a huge part of my capping, i do take an occasional glance at w^^^^line.com (didnt want to post the exact site name since i dont believe jack wants those links). normally they end up with fairly representative samples as gametime approaches.
its my own opinion that i could never trust the numbers posted on a sportsbook site, as its completely counterproductive for them, and the numbers are almost unbelievable and just absurd. but the site i mentioned above i think offers a pretty accurate sample each day. to me, anything less than 62 or 63% isnt a public play. once you start creeping toward 68-70, then its worth taking note of. i think cuse does indeed fall into the 70% range over there, although i didnt see it until after i capped the game. i think rutgers is the ride side regardless. we'll see. hope that helped even though i couldnt post the exact link. its a fairly well-known site to check consensus stuff.
 

Mr Hockey

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GL tonight as I'm on the Scarlet Knights myself. Hope everything is well in your neck of the woods. I haven't seen you on AIM in ages.
 

Bill

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Holy Sh*t!!!!

Took Cuse -7 2nd half.

Good call on the ML. You are "da man" :mj14:

Bill
 
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DirtyBirds

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A stone's throw from Philly
I know the site well, we use it quite a bit to look at past games and for streaks aswell. I appreciate your insite and knowledge as always. Looks like the public was wrong again in New Jersey today.
 

gman2

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2nd half syracuse under 75

both teams shot way better from the line in the 1h than they usually do. think rutgers is really gonna burn shotclock and pass it around the perimeter against syracuse's zone in the 2h. and if it stays in DD, not gonna see any fouls. really dont see the cuse making a push, as they are mediocre at best from 3pt range and lame at the line.
 

Bill

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Holy Sh*t!!!! Again!!!

I am not surprised at the bounce but am at the size. Still think we pull it out.

Go Knights.
 

Ranger6

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Gman,

As always nice call with Rutgers, I followed again, roooting for the ml for you. Thanks!!
 

Save It

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Good work w/ Rutgers gman...wish moneyline would have hit for you as long as the Cuse was not going to cover...gl
 
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