wednesday mac basketball and one other big one ....

gman2

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first time in awhile in the mac where i can just say i flat out capped the wrong side. akron is simply playing great basketball right now. some big road games are comin up for them, but they are just smacking teams at the JAR. no regrets on playin ball state because theyre surging themselves, but they walked into a buzzsaw tuesday night.

very big play for me. normally reserve my strongest plays for the horizon league and the mac. but im stepping out a little bit and hitting this one hard. been waiting for this game for two weeks. and like it even more now that it's here.

providence friars (-1.5)

providence flat out pissed away the first meeting. they had boston college on the ropes. friars were up 12 with 15:00 left in the game and they blew it. they'll seal the deal on wednesday. im not saying that i like the fact that providence is struggling, but it certainly adds to the line value. when i circled this game two weeks ago, i said i would lay anything up to -5 with providence. theyve been playing like shit the last two weeks and thats dropped the line down to almost a pick. this team should be sooo much better than they are. theyve underachieved big time this year. i can certainly respect the counter argument questioning if its worth it to play on an underachieving group. but its tough to convince me that the talent on the floor and where its being played shouldnt make this a providence -4 or -5 line. im NOT saying thats what the line should be. im simply saying that if you throw out the records and simply look at the talent, providence is definitely a few baskets better than BC at home. this game can be the perfect springboard to some better play down the stretch. i know this sounds preposterous, but i really think providence is the 4th best team in the big east. theres no reason for them to be sitting at 0-4/9-8. this one has an incredible amount of value in my opinion. boston college has been dodging bullets left and right. i know the sign of a good team is the ability to win close games, but eventually that catches up with you. cant live dangerously forever. providence should win this game by 8-10 points. theyve had a full week off to prepare for this game. there is no reason they shouldnt put forth one of their best efforts of the year.

working on the mac stuff now.
 
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vyrus858

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Gman just made my largest wager of the year and im very glad to see you like them as well (Providence)...Gomes will SHINE TOMMOROW, and I really do think so...Dudley gets shut down, and McGrath gets this team going...this is their break out game, I really do feel it...best of luck to us
 

gman2

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some really difficult mac games tonight.

central michigan/bowling green

cmu is absolutely terrible, but this is a dangerous game for bowling green. its gonna be difficult for the falcons to match the same intensity and emotional level that they were playing with in the 2nd half of the toledo game. they expended a ton of energy and emotion coming back from 17 down against toledo and winning when ingram's shot rimmed out at the buzzer. now theyre traveling to play a very uninspiring opponent who just got buried by akron the other night. if bg comes out flat, cmich could steal one, as there are no freebie road wins in the mac. but ive got no faith in central michigan to get it done. spot is tailor-made for the chips, but they are a bad basketball team. there's a good chance bg's jermaine fitch might not play after tweaking his knee in the postgame celebration after the toledo game.

toledo/ohio

ohio has been very tough at home this year. they havent lost at the convo and their most recent home win was a thrashing of kent state. toledo has led by 8 or more in the 2nd half of ALL FOUR mac road games......and only won one of them. toledo has way more talent than ohio, but the bobcats are playing much better basketball and far more confident basketball. both teams are coming off last-second losses on the road. ohio lost by 2 to miami, toledo lost by 1 to bowling green. there is definitely value in toledo getting 3 points but their inability to close out games on the road completely scares me off them. on paper, toledo is 6-8 points better, but they cant seal the deal away from home. i do, however, think this is going to be a high-scoring game with both teams failing to bring a whole lot of defensive intensity after each had a heart-breaking road loss on saturday. when a total is posted, im gonna grab the over.

miami/wmu

flip a coin. western has proven they can beat anyone on the road but miami is capable of controlling this game. dont have a real good feel for this one because miami is so erratic. theyre well-coached but you never know if theyre gonna play princeton-style basketball or if theyre gonna use their athleticism to get out and run in the open court. seems that miami is making an effort to run more this year but sometimes they go through long scoring droughts. i could never bet against 'em at home laying just a few points. but wmich is a tall task for them. total tossup.


only mac play will be ohio over the total when it comes out. thinkin its gonna be about 143 or 144.
 

zsbob9

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Any feeling on the BG total...since 1998 lowest final total has been 147 - seems to be a pretty high scoring series.
 

yipyip

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Would love to hear if you have any thoughts on the Creighton vs. Bradley game tonight. Either way best of luck on the Friars.
 

vyrus858

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G,
Wish I had some patience last night and waited the providence line out...Line now at Prov +1.5 Some places, what did you get? I got 1.5 and im cursing myself now lol
 

gman2

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vyrus:

yeah i laid the 1.5 at olympic. but im still gonna add a few more bucks at +1, lol. this is the most confident ive been on a non-mac or horizon game all season. ultimately, line shouldnt matter. your boy from bc has been having a solid season.....but i think providence pisses all over bc tonight. wouldnt surprise me to see this one go back to 'pick' or flip flop to providence -1 around 6 or 7 o'clock. lets nail this one.

zsbob:

over definitely would make sense, because cmu has been awful on defense this year. but im not sure the price is gonna be cheap because they just gave up 95 pts to akron last time out. bowling green isnt a real run and gun team, but im not sure if theyre gonna be bringing their best defense tonight. i think you might be on to something there.

yipyip:

no clue on that MVC game. its one of the few conferences i havent really bet this year. used to have some connections to some guys at some of those programs but after they all graduated out of their programs, i havent paid much attention to that conference. sorry.
 

thewinder

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I'm seeing 137 on that ohio/toledo game over play. you thought it would be higher, does this change your thinking, or is it a load up situation?

thewinder
 

vyrus858

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Gman, Dudley is having a solid season but tongiht is going to be a rough night for him, he will get shut down by Brewington and Gomes, FAR more experienced and tough...Im just shocked at a 3 point swing in the spread, I hope to God its not the factor that screws us ... 78-77 BC would be hell lol
 

gman2

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winder:

i havent seen a total up yet at olympic, but if it is indeed 137, then yeah im gonna hit that one for a few units. i think its a solid play. got a lot of exposure on providence, so dont want to get too crazy with the toledo total. after all, they did play a 54-52 game with buffalo in a game where i bet over 150, lol.

but toledo is a run and gun team who doesnt play a whole lot of defense, and ohio shoots the ball very well at home. and i really (for the total's sake) love the fact that both teams are coming off tough losses a few nights ago. normally that loss lingers for one game, especially on the defensive end.

if this game isnt played in the 70s then i will be absolutely amazed, and SERIOUSLY will consider not betting another total for quite awhile. im not suggesting to load up, but definitely think that anything under 140 is a huge bargain.
 

gman2

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grabbed over 136.5 as soon as olympic put a total up. i think thats a very soft number and really like this play too. guess im laying it on the line tonight with two big plays. providence and then ohio over the 136.5. hopin to be a happy man at 10pm
 

zsbob9

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BG game is at 148.5...you still like the over or does it look pretty close.
 

gman2

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one horizon league game, but a small play.

purdue (+1) over wisconsin-milwaukee

normally i would be all over the mid-major team in this spot, especially since the panthers have a lot of guys who could easily play in the big 10 or any other power conference. but i think a deseperate purdue team takes this one. no clue what kind of crowd will show up, but that still is a difficult place to play and the boilers have started to show some signs of life in big 10 play. this one is also a matter of pride for keady's team. theyre down this year, but i dont think theyre gonna take uwm lightly and i dont think theyre gonna let them come into their building and win. i almost think uwm would stand a better chance of winning against a middle-of-the-road big 10 team (say an ohio state) who might take em lightly and where a loss wouldnt be the worst thing. im not gonna go so far as to say this game doesnt mean anything to uwm, because anytime you play a power conference team on the road youre jacked up. but the panthers do have two key horizon games coming up in the next days and their next game is a rematch with 2nd place (and rival) green bay. i think the panthers get tripped up here.

so going with these three today and that should be it.

big-- providence
big - ohio over 136.5
purdue

providence is the best of the three, but think this card is pretty solid tonight
 
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gman2

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zsbob- just saw that bg total. its an accurate total in terms of what the # SHOULD be. now its just a matter of do you think they can exceed it. personally i think its a little much, but like you said, recent meetings have been higher scoring between these two. i think its one of those totals that gonna be really really close. i know that doesnt help, but think its a tough one.
 

GOAT

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G man you are very good i wish i had your number i drink with some of the KENT ass. Not to say inside anythimk but a good insight. Was talking about that Akron Game all 3 werer on Akron Not to say your work or mine is not up to par it always good to get so fell on the inside. Not inside Ifor just a fell. Good Luck ! Wish i could type and put my stuff in my words. Oh well will do the work and hope i win,. You do a grear job of breaking it down Thanks.
 

Hokie Fan

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G man love your plays
I just went out of Providence and the crowd will be rocking
Snow and more snow will keep the crowd there (ahh nothing else to do)
BC is due for a clunker
 

spang

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I've looked at that Miami- Western game from every possible angle and still can't fiigure it out. Miami opened the season so well that I really thought that they could be one of Charlies best ever. I have since lessened my expectations of the Redhawks, but that said this is a big one for Miami with the Zips threatening their leading position in the east. I think that they rise up and defend their floor tonight.

BTW: taking a long roadie down to Oxford on Sunday with a buddy for what should be one hell of a game.

Good luck tonight, I think you have a couple off winners here.
 

tubbysmith

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sorry G, that Providence game was......ugh nevermind..very close at the end there but they let it slip away again...thanks just the same for the play.
 
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