NCAA Picks, 1/30/05-2/5/05

[BGFalcon]

YTD: 19-19-3, -1.9 units

WMU +2.5 over Toledo: I think Toledo is getting too much credit for the home court here. Granted, WMU has lost 6 straight at Savage but is WMU only 1.5 points better than Toledo on a neutral court? WMU got over its mid-season slump with an ass-kicking against CMU. The Chips are rotten but let's not overlook the defense that the Broncos showed even in a blowout. I think the combination of Reed and Rost is better than Triplett and Villegas. Valencia coming off the bench for the Rockets is a concern but I think the Broncos will be focused since a loss here really throws the West up for grabs. A win gives them some breathing room. Look for WMU to control the boards and win a close one.

 

[BGFalcon]

I also like The Citadel (is that like The Ohio State University?) -3 over Wofford based on my numbers. But I can't make them an official pick since I don't know where the hell either college is located.

 

[caper]

southern league...wofford is in spartanburg, sc & the citadel (a military college) is in beautiful charleston, sc...gl, caper

 

[Kdogg21]

im on Citadel too. line is -2 at some places

 

[BGFalcon]

Another last minute meltdown in the MAC. Broncos blow a late lead because they can't take care of the basketball or make free throws in the clutch.

Results: 0-1

 

[BGFalcon]

Tuesday:
Kent St. -3.5 over Marshall: This is the time of year to look for teams that will pack it in. I can see Marshall doing just that here. Kent is right in the thick of things and Marshall is looking up at everyone. Kent is inconsistent on the road but if they get off to a good start, the Thundering Herd will turn into a bunch of blundering turds. Lay the chalk.

 

[RexBudler]

the Thundering Herd will turn into a bunch of blundering turds.

:mj07: Enjoy your posts and gl to you

 

[BGFalcon]

Results: 1-0

Finally on the right side of a collapse.

Wednesday picks (write ups later):
Ohio +6 over Buffalo
Ohio St. -9 over Purdue
Wisconsin -15 over Northwestern

 

[BGFalcon]

Ohio +6 over Buffalo: I don't think Buffalo has the toughness to win the conference. On the other hand, OU has shown some toughness on the road recently. In their last four road games they lost by 2 at Miami, beat CMU by 20, lost by 3 at NIU and lost by 1 at Ball St. I see that trend continuing tonight. They are right in the thick of the race and positioning themselves for the tournament. Six points is too many for Buffalo to cover in a game like this.

Ohio St. -9 over Purdue: I have this lined at -12 so it's a play for me. I think Purdue plays poorly coming off their first league win. The Buckeyes have had a tough stretch but the miracle finish against NW might be just what they need to get going again. Defensively, they should have no trouble keeping the Boilermakers in check. Matta has started to play a couple of the younger players in an effort to jump start the offense. I think you will see that move paying off tonight in Columbus.

Wisconsin -15 over Northwestern: NW has been very good at slowing games down and keeping it close but not tonight. The complete breakdown late in the OSU game and going to Madison is not a good mixture. I don't like to lay this much chalk but I see Wisky jumping on the Wildcats early and NW folding it up for the night.

Minnesota +2.5 over Michigan: I've had about as much luck with the Gophers as I have with Sparty but this Michigan team is a mess. I don't see them bouncing back this quickly from the Purdue beating. This should be an ugly low-scoring affair so I like the points. The under might also be a play. This should stay in the mid-50's.

 

[gman2]

nice job on OU Falcon. your work doesnt go unnoticed. ddnt like butting heads on this one either. really felt buffalo was the way to go tonight but you clearly capped this one dead on the money. continued success.

 

[BGFalcon]

Thanks, gman. I had some concerns when I saw that you went the other way. We need to get together at the Gund for the MAC Tournament and discuss strategy. I'll buy.

 

[gman2]

Thanks, gman. I had some concerns when I saw that you went the other way. We need to get together at the Gund for the MAC Tournament and discuss strategy. I'll buy.

went to the quarterfinal session last year (marshall/wmu and toledo/buffalo) and it was great basketball. then caught ohio/kent the year before which i believe was the semifinal game. will be down there again this year. talk to you down the road.

g

 

[BGFalcon]

Results: 3-0-1 (It wasn't an official pick but I hope you played the Mich/Minn under as well)

 

[BGFalcon]

Thursday:
NIU -8.5 over Marshall: NIU has had a tough schedule so far in the league. They've been on the road for 4 of their of their last 5 and go to Kent this weekend. Marshall is coming off a tough loss to Kent and is wondering if they will win a game in the MAC while NIU is looking for an opportunity to pick up a home win after some great efforts (except for the late game meltdown at Ball St.) on the road. I think both teams are better than their record shows but Marshall is in a bad spot IMO. I have this game lined at -12 so I'll lay the 8.5.

 

[ysg3]

akron@BG

akron@BG

what is your take here BG... I was leaning towards akron a little and wanted to get your opinion..

thanks

 

[BGFalcon]

Results: 1-0

 

[addikted]

Job well done BG!

 

[BGFalcon]

Friday:
Penn -7 over Harvard and over 136.5: The Quakers are rolling and the line movement down to -7 has made this playable. They are shooting the ball well and playing with confidence. No danger of Penn looking ahead since they will deliver a beating to Dartmouth tomorrow night. Harvard is simply not at the same level as Penn but they have shown an ability to score some points. I have it at 77-66.

Brown +1.5 over Cornell: Roscoe and Forte for Brown will be too much to handle for Cornell who have no business laying points here. We're getting line value here because of Brown's big loss Saturday. But, Brown also beat Princeton. The Bears have Columbia Saturday night so this weekend is key. If they can split the next time around with Princeton and Penn and beat everyone else, they will be in the hunt for the title. They can't afford to slip up against a team like Cornell.

 

[BGFalcon]

Results: 2-1

 

[BGFalcon]

Saturday:
Iowa +3 over Sparty
Miami -6.5 over Buffalo

Write ups later