Please read!!!!!

[Fabulous]

I am going to try out a new system starting today. If anybody has ever evaluated what I am going to evaluate please post a reply.

My online book shows the opening odds, current odds and the betting trend (ie What % of the money is on what team/over/under/ml).

There are 9 NCAA games in which the following is present:

70%-100% of the action is one one team and the line for that team is dropping if they are a favorite or rising if they are a dog. In a nutshell, there are some teams in which all the money is pouring in on and yet the line is becoming more favorable to bet on that team rather than the line becoming less favorable to encourage action on the opposing team thus evening out the $ on each team, with the book reaping all the juice.

For example, Buffalo opened at -7. According to my book 100% of the action is on Buffalo and the line has decreased to -6. It should have gone to -8 to even out the $ yet it has done the exact opposite.

Does the book/vegas know something the public doesnt?

I am going to track the results of this for a few days and see what surfaces.

If anyone has done this in the past and knows what type of results to expect please share.

fab

 

[c20916]

The only problem I see with that is you dont' know how much money is bet on each game. For example you could only have 3 wagers on Buffalo at the time with that book and 0 on Ohio, so the % doesn't really hold a lot of value. It may work though, good luck to you.

 

[loophole]

while i look at the same kind of patterns, i wouldn't get too excited about that game. the consensus opening line in that game was -6. if your book opened a -7 they have simply adjusted to get in line with the mainstream number.

 

[Fabulous]

I understand that the unkown is how much $ is on a team, but who cares. If only 3 bets are on one team for a total of $300 that still provides no explanation as to why the line should move in favor of that team. If 100% of the action was on one team and the line remained stagnent I would not be concerned, but any $ that is wagered on a team gives no ration for moving the line in that teams favor, baring special cases, for example an injury status update, weather etc.

 

[Iminforabuck]

Good luck with this......I'll keep an eye on it

 

[Fabulous]

Perfect example of this is:

Houston (vs SL)

The line opened at Houston -7. 97% of the $ is on Houston and the line is Houston -6 right now. All the other books have Houston -6.5. So why is my book making this line lower than the standard and lower than their opening # when all the $ is on Houston? This may be a fishy game, we will have to wait and see.