Senor, I would seriously hope you would reconsider. You are the premier capper in the forums, IMO. Don't let a couple rookies get inside your skin.
Thanks
Thanks
Se?or Cappers SB Thread
- Thread starter Senor Capper
- Start date
Senor, I would seriously hope you would reconsider. You are the premier capper in the forums, IMO. Don't let a couple rookies get inside your skin.
Thanks
You're an All-Pro selection
Thanks
You're an All-Pro selection
thanks buds
Its not just "them" its a combination of things.
-------------------------
On to various analysis............
Patriots will prevail: Let me count the ways
Taken from an Editor who writes in Philly believe it or not
For all those folks prepared to jump into the Super Bowl as if it's the wager of the century, especially you wild ones in Philly, take a deep breath.
The first bit of advice from this laptop is, yeah, it's the Super Bowl, and yeah, it's the hometown heroes, but in my book, there will be better investments on the board all weekend long in the NBA and on the college hoop slate.
Because it's the Super Bowl, and because the editors demanded a pick, here we go.
Expecting tons of hate mail and risking my picture being ripped down from the "Wall of Fame" at Pat's, it's New England.
And in bullet-point fashion, here are the reasons:
? No matter what the Lord says, Terrell Owens is not close to 100 percent, or 81 percent for that matter.
? The Patriots are 33-4 the last 2 seasons.
? Tom Brady is 8-0 in the playoffs.
? The Eagles will not have Pro Bowl tight end Chad Lewis in uniform.
? The Patriots dominated the Eagles last season, winning 31-10.
? The Patriots play in the dominant AFC.
? The Eagles were 0-4 vs. the spread against the AFC this season.
? Corey Dillon.
? Finally, a little souffle of anger and disrespect.
Let me explain. Since the start of this incredible run in 2001, New England has placed only nine different players in the Pro Bowl. This season alone, the Eagles will send 10. There's your anger quotient.
The disrespect. This group of Patriots is on the verge of being mentioned with the greatest teams of all time, and No. 81's ankle gets more camera time and ink than this dynasty-to-be.
Welcome to crazy.
Put the bricks in a row, and it's too much for these Green Birds to handle.
Patriots, 24-16
==================
Although it is the last game of the season, it is still only a football game. Consequently it is worth exactly one bet, not the entire bankroll. A lot of people will be forgetting that fact in the next few days. Don't try to get even on a single game, it is a chance to bust your bankroll as much as a chance to score a big win.
Philadelphia Eagles +7.
There are too many scenarios where the Patriots have the chance to win the game by running out the clock without covering the spread. Remember that coach Belichick is intent on winning the game, but he doesn't give a hot damn about covering your pointspread. That's your problem. Add to all those possible results the chances of the Eagles winning the game straight up, and we have the correct percentage play. I come up with a one point ball game, fairly low scoring, with a total of 43. Return of Terrell Owens has to be a good thing for the Eagles. On the other hand, the Partiots are clearly at the top of their game. The difference in this one is the Eagles defense. Last time out the Pats found holes in the Steelers secondary. Those need to be closed this weekend with top notch pass coverage. If that develops as I expect it to, then the offenses will be dominated by the running game for both teams. That will make the clock go faster and result in a fairly low score. So watch for a defensive slug fest and take the huge spot. I'm staying away from the total, since a single big play by either team at any point in the game could take it over the 47.
Playing on the Eagles, since their chances of being the team that breaks that play are exactly 50-50.
====================
Pats 35, Eagles 21 -
A stat that means nothing: The Eagles have won five of their last six battles with the Patriots.
A stat that means something: Philly's 24th-ranked running attack isn't enough to keep the N.E. defense guessing.
A non-stat that means everything: The big game is all about leadership, and the Pats' Tom Brady is steadily working his way up a very short list that includes names like Bradshaw and Montana, while the Eagles' Donovan McNabb, despite his often inspired play this season, must still be wondering how N.E., on a roll, can be beaten. And the slightest doubt is deadly on Super Bowl Sunday
==============
New England (7) Philadelphia
(over/under 48)
Among all the reasons why the Patriots are a good bet to win their third Super Bowl in four years, the AFC?s dominance over the NFC this season is near the top of the list. The AFC had a whopping 44-20 edge over the NFC this season, and the AFC?s six playoff teams were 21-3 vs. NFC opponents this season. Teams from the NFC that made the playoffs, meanwhile, were a lackluster 11-13 vs. the AFC. That said, the Eagles were far from being an ordinary NFC team, totally dominating their NFC opponents on the way to clinching a division title by Week 12.
The Patriots are an outstanding 13-3-2 against the number this season and have covered in their last four games. But the Eagles aren?t bad in that regard, either, with an 11-7 record against the spread (6-4 in their last 10). Super Bowl favorites are 3-5-2 against the spread in the last 10 years. In the over/under department, seven of the last 10 Super Bowls, including the last two, have finished over the total.
The following pick is the consensus pick of the 10 PFW editors who handicapped every game this past season. All 10 of us picked the Pats to win straight-up, with two of us ? myself and Jeff Reynolds ? picking the Eagles to cover the spread. By averaging out the predicted scores that each editor has come up with, we?re saying the final score on Super Sunday will be New England 31, Philadelphia 20. Enjoy the game, everybody!
Play New England (and the ?over?)
__________________
Its not just "them" its a combination of things.
-------------------------
On to various analysis............
Patriots will prevail: Let me count the ways
Taken from an Editor who writes in Philly believe it or not
For all those folks prepared to jump into the Super Bowl as if it's the wager of the century, especially you wild ones in Philly, take a deep breath.
The first bit of advice from this laptop is, yeah, it's the Super Bowl, and yeah, it's the hometown heroes, but in my book, there will be better investments on the board all weekend long in the NBA and on the college hoop slate.
Because it's the Super Bowl, and because the editors demanded a pick, here we go.
Expecting tons of hate mail and risking my picture being ripped down from the "Wall of Fame" at Pat's, it's New England.
And in bullet-point fashion, here are the reasons:
? No matter what the Lord says, Terrell Owens is not close to 100 percent, or 81 percent for that matter.
? The Patriots are 33-4 the last 2 seasons.
? Tom Brady is 8-0 in the playoffs.
? The Eagles will not have Pro Bowl tight end Chad Lewis in uniform.
? The Patriots dominated the Eagles last season, winning 31-10.
? The Patriots play in the dominant AFC.
? The Eagles were 0-4 vs. the spread against the AFC this season.
? Corey Dillon.
? Finally, a little souffle of anger and disrespect.
Let me explain. Since the start of this incredible run in 2001, New England has placed only nine different players in the Pro Bowl. This season alone, the Eagles will send 10. There's your anger quotient.
The disrespect. This group of Patriots is on the verge of being mentioned with the greatest teams of all time, and No. 81's ankle gets more camera time and ink than this dynasty-to-be.
Welcome to crazy.
Put the bricks in a row, and it's too much for these Green Birds to handle.
Patriots, 24-16
==================
Although it is the last game of the season, it is still only a football game. Consequently it is worth exactly one bet, not the entire bankroll. A lot of people will be forgetting that fact in the next few days. Don't try to get even on a single game, it is a chance to bust your bankroll as much as a chance to score a big win.
Philadelphia Eagles +7.
There are too many scenarios where the Patriots have the chance to win the game by running out the clock without covering the spread. Remember that coach Belichick is intent on winning the game, but he doesn't give a hot damn about covering your pointspread. That's your problem. Add to all those possible results the chances of the Eagles winning the game straight up, and we have the correct percentage play. I come up with a one point ball game, fairly low scoring, with a total of 43. Return of Terrell Owens has to be a good thing for the Eagles. On the other hand, the Partiots are clearly at the top of their game. The difference in this one is the Eagles defense. Last time out the Pats found holes in the Steelers secondary. Those need to be closed this weekend with top notch pass coverage. If that develops as I expect it to, then the offenses will be dominated by the running game for both teams. That will make the clock go faster and result in a fairly low score. So watch for a defensive slug fest and take the huge spot. I'm staying away from the total, since a single big play by either team at any point in the game could take it over the 47.
Playing on the Eagles, since their chances of being the team that breaks that play are exactly 50-50.
====================
Pats 35, Eagles 21 -
A stat that means nothing: The Eagles have won five of their last six battles with the Patriots.
A stat that means something: Philly's 24th-ranked running attack isn't enough to keep the N.E. defense guessing.
A non-stat that means everything: The big game is all about leadership, and the Pats' Tom Brady is steadily working his way up a very short list that includes names like Bradshaw and Montana, while the Eagles' Donovan McNabb, despite his often inspired play this season, must still be wondering how N.E., on a roll, can be beaten. And the slightest doubt is deadly on Super Bowl Sunday
==============
New England (7) Philadelphia
(over/under 48)
Among all the reasons why the Patriots are a good bet to win their third Super Bowl in four years, the AFC?s dominance over the NFC this season is near the top of the list. The AFC had a whopping 44-20 edge over the NFC this season, and the AFC?s six playoff teams were 21-3 vs. NFC opponents this season. Teams from the NFC that made the playoffs, meanwhile, were a lackluster 11-13 vs. the AFC. That said, the Eagles were far from being an ordinary NFC team, totally dominating their NFC opponents on the way to clinching a division title by Week 12.
The Patriots are an outstanding 13-3-2 against the number this season and have covered in their last four games. But the Eagles aren?t bad in that regard, either, with an 11-7 record against the spread (6-4 in their last 10). Super Bowl favorites are 3-5-2 against the spread in the last 10 years. In the over/under department, seven of the last 10 Super Bowls, including the last two, have finished over the total.
The following pick is the consensus pick of the 10 PFW editors who handicapped every game this past season. All 10 of us picked the Pats to win straight-up, with two of us ? myself and Jeff Reynolds ? picking the Eagles to cover the spread. By averaging out the predicted scores that each editor has come up with, we?re saying the final score on Super Sunday will be New England 31, Philadelphia 20. Enjoy the game, everybody!
Play New England (and the ?over?)
__________________
Last edited:
Because of the way the New England Patriots have steamrolled through the regular season and playoffs, they are a heavy favorite for the Super Bowl.
It?s understandable. After a 14-2 season, the defending champs shut down the high-flying Indianapolis Colts, then handled the 15-1 Pittsburgh Steelers.
In order for the Philadelphia Eagles to win, they have to play a great game. If they play a great game, they have a very good chance.
For the Patriots, they have to play a GOOD game. If the Eagles don?t play a great game, then the Pats can win with a good game. If New England can play a great game, it will win.
Expect the Eagles to get a big lift from Terrell Owens. Any catch Owens makes will make the Philadelphia sideline explode. The Eagles will come out strong and score quickly. Playing on emotion, they will be in control of the score early.
They?ll be so fired up it will be unreal. And the Eagles have the players to control their emotions and channel them. After the first quarter, Philadelphia should lead 10-3 or so.
But that won?t bother the Pats, because they know they need to play for a whole game.
At halftime, the Eagles will continue moving the ball some on the Patriots defense. Donovan McNabb will cause some trouble for New England?s defense, which hasn?t faced a quarterback with his mobility. He?ll make some plays, and the Eagles should be leading 17-10, 17-14 or 17-13.
By the end of the third quarter, Philadelphia will still have the lead. McNabb will continue to spark some things and get some first downs. But the Pats will have some success, too, and the score will be 24-21.
In the fourth quarter, the Patriots will take control. New England doesn?t make mistakes, and the players have such confidence that if they keep doing the right things, making the right plays, then things will go their way. The Pats will adjust to McNabb?s scrambling in the fourth quarter, and that will set up New England for the plays it needs.
The Patriots will score two touchdowns and win.
MVP: Can Tom Brady do it three times in a row? This time, I wouldn?t be surprised if wide receiver David Givens wins the MVP award. The Eagles will concentrate on stopping Corey Dillon and the run, then confusing Brady. Givens will come up with some big plays.
The key: Watching the Patriots over the past few games, their linebackers are the key. It?s going to be up to them to make the right drops in pass plays, and still make the stops against the run. McNabb doesn?t do a lot of wild things when he takes off ? he just goes straight ahead and makes yards. So the Pats linebackers, who have played exceptionally well this season, need to make plays. For the Eagles, McNabb needs to make some extra yards and break a few plays.
Pick: Patriots, 35-24.
__________________
Sunday, Feb. 6 (FOX)
Alltel Stadium, Jacksonville, Fla.
Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) vs. New England Patriots (16-2)
Line: Eagles +7
To hear everyone talk it seems like we are ready to crown the Patriots Champions again. I remember being at the Super Bowl in 2002 when the Patriots were two-touchdown underdogs against the St. Louis Rams and they shocked the world!
You can make an argument for both teams winning this game, New England seems to have a scheme and game plan for every opposing offense in the league. Nobody prepares better than Bill Belichick. The Eagles seem to be in the perfect position, nobody is giving them a chance and now they have finally gone to the Super Bowl so the monkey is off their back. I do a good job of putting feeling aside during the regular season but I have and always will be an Eagles fan. It is just too hard for me to remain objective here, I say take the Eagles to win 31-21.
Straight: Eagles Spread: Eagles
__________________
Patriots (-7) over Eagles
The Patriots square off against the Eagles in what may actually turn out to be an old-school Super Bowl; that is to say, it should be one-sided. The Patriots enter the game with a 13-3-2 record this season against the spread, while the Eagles posted an 11-7 record. The Patriots are seeking to cement their status as a legitamite dynasty while the Eagles seek their first post-merger championship after three consecutive failures in the NFC Championship game.
The Eagles are hoping for the return of WR Terrell Owens from an ankle injury, but his effectiveness will be questionable even if he does make it back onto the field. Their best strategy might be to try and run the ball with Westbrook, then have McNabb scramble for yards-- because there's no way they will beat the Patriots' defense the way they handled the Falcons. They'll need to patient and try to frustrate the Pats.
As for the Patriots, all they have to do is... well, what they've been doing all year long. They can win the shootouts (like they did against the Steelers) or they can grind out out (like they did against the Colts). They key will be RB Corey Dillon, who will carry the ball at least 25 times in this one. Brady will likely stick to high-percentage passes and spread the ball around because it seems that the Eagles' best chance of winning will rest on their defense's ability to force turnovers.
Don't look for Pats' K Adam Vinatieri to perform any last-second heroics, as has been the case in New England's last two Super Bowl victories; the game will not be that close in the fourth quarter.
Take the Patriots d and give the touchdown.
__________________
It?s understandable. After a 14-2 season, the defending champs shut down the high-flying Indianapolis Colts, then handled the 15-1 Pittsburgh Steelers.
In order for the Philadelphia Eagles to win, they have to play a great game. If they play a great game, they have a very good chance.
For the Patriots, they have to play a GOOD game. If the Eagles don?t play a great game, then the Pats can win with a good game. If New England can play a great game, it will win.
Expect the Eagles to get a big lift from Terrell Owens. Any catch Owens makes will make the Philadelphia sideline explode. The Eagles will come out strong and score quickly. Playing on emotion, they will be in control of the score early.
They?ll be so fired up it will be unreal. And the Eagles have the players to control their emotions and channel them. After the first quarter, Philadelphia should lead 10-3 or so.
But that won?t bother the Pats, because they know they need to play for a whole game.
At halftime, the Eagles will continue moving the ball some on the Patriots defense. Donovan McNabb will cause some trouble for New England?s defense, which hasn?t faced a quarterback with his mobility. He?ll make some plays, and the Eagles should be leading 17-10, 17-14 or 17-13.
By the end of the third quarter, Philadelphia will still have the lead. McNabb will continue to spark some things and get some first downs. But the Pats will have some success, too, and the score will be 24-21.
In the fourth quarter, the Patriots will take control. New England doesn?t make mistakes, and the players have such confidence that if they keep doing the right things, making the right plays, then things will go their way. The Pats will adjust to McNabb?s scrambling in the fourth quarter, and that will set up New England for the plays it needs.
The Patriots will score two touchdowns and win.
MVP: Can Tom Brady do it three times in a row? This time, I wouldn?t be surprised if wide receiver David Givens wins the MVP award. The Eagles will concentrate on stopping Corey Dillon and the run, then confusing Brady. Givens will come up with some big plays.
The key: Watching the Patriots over the past few games, their linebackers are the key. It?s going to be up to them to make the right drops in pass plays, and still make the stops against the run. McNabb doesn?t do a lot of wild things when he takes off ? he just goes straight ahead and makes yards. So the Pats linebackers, who have played exceptionally well this season, need to make plays. For the Eagles, McNabb needs to make some extra yards and break a few plays.
Pick: Patriots, 35-24.
__________________
Sunday, Feb. 6 (FOX)
Alltel Stadium, Jacksonville, Fla.
Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) vs. New England Patriots (16-2)
Line: Eagles +7
To hear everyone talk it seems like we are ready to crown the Patriots Champions again. I remember being at the Super Bowl in 2002 when the Patriots were two-touchdown underdogs against the St. Louis Rams and they shocked the world!
You can make an argument for both teams winning this game, New England seems to have a scheme and game plan for every opposing offense in the league. Nobody prepares better than Bill Belichick. The Eagles seem to be in the perfect position, nobody is giving them a chance and now they have finally gone to the Super Bowl so the monkey is off their back. I do a good job of putting feeling aside during the regular season but I have and always will be an Eagles fan. It is just too hard for me to remain objective here, I say take the Eagles to win 31-21.
Straight: Eagles Spread: Eagles
__________________
Patriots (-7) over Eagles
The Patriots square off against the Eagles in what may actually turn out to be an old-school Super Bowl; that is to say, it should be one-sided. The Patriots enter the game with a 13-3-2 record this season against the spread, while the Eagles posted an 11-7 record. The Patriots are seeking to cement their status as a legitamite dynasty while the Eagles seek their first post-merger championship after three consecutive failures in the NFC Championship game.
The Eagles are hoping for the return of WR Terrell Owens from an ankle injury, but his effectiveness will be questionable even if he does make it back onto the field. Their best strategy might be to try and run the ball with Westbrook, then have McNabb scramble for yards-- because there's no way they will beat the Patriots' defense the way they handled the Falcons. They'll need to patient and try to frustrate the Pats.
As for the Patriots, all they have to do is... well, what they've been doing all year long. They can win the shootouts (like they did against the Steelers) or they can grind out out (like they did against the Colts). They key will be RB Corey Dillon, who will carry the ball at least 25 times in this one. Brady will likely stick to high-percentage passes and spread the ball around because it seems that the Eagles' best chance of winning will rest on their defense's ability to force turnovers.
Don't look for Pats' K Adam Vinatieri to perform any last-second heroics, as has been the case in New England's last two Super Bowl victories; the game will not be that close in the fourth quarter.
Take the Patriots d and give the touchdown.
__________________
February 4, 2005 -- CAN a professional handicap per, in good conscience, advise people to bet their hard-earned money against Bill Belichick and the Patriots on the NFL's biggest stage?
At first this appeared an easy tout, but the spread and the Eagles have made it tough.
The line quickly went to Patriots -7 and hasn't fluctuated. When the number is so close to the anticipated outcome, it leaves very little margin for error, especially when you're playing the favorite.
But the real holdup here is the opponent. Consider the three biggest advantages the Patriots have against most teams going in: coaching, quarterback, kicker.
Belichick and departing coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel are the best at what they do. You certainly don't want to go up against them if they've had two weeks to prepare and dissect your offensive and defensive operations. But what about Andy Reid? His Eagles are 9-0 after bye weeks, including 3-0 in the postseason.
Tom Brady has never lost a playoff game and already has two Super Bowl MVPs on his mantel. You don't expect him to be rattled by the Eagles' blitzes, choreographed by coordinator Jim Johnson. Brady also has a 1,600-yard runner in Corey Dillon and a handful of non-glorified receivers who make big play after big play.
But what of Donovan McNabb? If not for Peyton Manning, McNabb easily would have been the NFL's MVP. He threw 31 TD passes with only eight interceptions, but what makes him a scary betting foe is that he can still take off and run with the best of them. In this Sunday's Post, ESPN's Ron Jaworski will diagram an Eagles play in which three WRs and the tight end all run deep post patterns, covered by five DBs. On the play, which Jaws took from last season's Pats rout of the Eagles, New England blitzes from all angles out of a 2-4-5 set. This forces Brian Westbrook to stay in and block, which is a Belichick goal, but leaves the whole center of the field wide open. If McNabb can escape the swarm, he can go 20-30 yards or more. Or, he can let loose way down field to any of four receivers, three of whom will be in single-coverage.
Then there's Adam Vinatieri, Mr. Clutch, who has already been the deciding factor in two Super Bowls. But if you're the Patriots, would you want your dynasty to be decided by the Eagles' David Akers kicking a 47-yarder? Didn't think so.
So there it is, a compelling case for Philadelphia, a team that is 15-1 in games in which it has even tried to compete this season, and also is getting the NFL's best receiver of 2004, Terrell Owens, back. But now it goes back to the original question: Can one advise people to bet against the Patriots? Against Brady? Against Belichick?
The answer is: No.
And the main reason is Belichick. He will identify the Eagles' most dangerous weapon, which is Westbrook, and keep him under wraps with blitz responsibility and the NFL's best playmaking linebacker, Tedy Bruschi. He will confuse McNabb with multiple different alignments and personnel packages that he's never seen before, even on Patriots film. He will have Rodney Harrison and the other DBs punish the Philly receivers early, sapping their will (remember what BB's Giants DBs did to Andre Reed in Super Bowl XXV).
How can he do this all at once? Doesn't he need 15 players to spy Westbrook, blitz everyone, watch for McNabb's escape runs and cover all the receivers? He doesn't, because of the sequencing. The Patriots' defense is always ready for the adjustment. One move ahead, or more, in the chess match.
We are watching a dynasty at work, and there's no doubt here that Bob Kraft will be hoisting a third Vince Lombardi Trophy in four years at about 10:15 Sunday night. The margin will determine whether you'll be sipping the $200-a-bottle Cristal or the $4 Andre.
Patriots 31, Eagles 20
=============
It's Super Bowl weekend and not only are the Patriots [stats, news] the team to beat, they are also on the verge of creating a dynasty.
Forget all the stats you'll hear - and have heard for the past two weeks - and focus on this: No team had a tougher road to the Super Bowl than New England, yet no team had an easier trip.
As the AFC playoffs loomed, three things were obvious: The Steelers would get the top seed and home-field advantage throughout the postseason; the Pats weren't far behind the Steelers but would have the unenviable task of winning in Pittsburgh, and the one team nobody wanted to play was the high-scoring Colts, led by Peyton Manning.
In back-to-back weeks, the Pats frustrated the league's best offense in a 20-3 drubbing of Indy, and followed that up by scoring 41 points vs. the NFL's top-rated defense in a 41-27 rout of Pittsburgh.
Off those two efforts, it is safe to say the Pats are on a postseason roll that has them poised to win their third Super Bowl in four years.
But before simply handing them the Lombardi Trophy, remember: The Eagles are a force to be reckoned with.
Philly has lost one meaningful game this season - it was hammered at Pittsburgh one week after the Pats met the same fate - and its losses in the season's final two games were a product of Andy Reid protecting his starters in meaningless games. The Eagles rebounded nicely with two easy wins in the playoffs.
Remember, too, that Reid has never lost a game he has had two weeks to prepare for, and that Philly's defense came together when Jeremiah Trotter became the starter at middle linebacker several weeks ago.
The absence of Terrell Owens - or reduced role if he does play - will hurt, but the Patriots are well aware it is possible to overcome injuries to superstars. And while the lack of Super Bowl experience could hurt the Eagles, New England was in that same position three years ago when it upset the Rams.
Finally, while the 7-point favored Patriots have won two recent Super Bowls, they have done so on final-second field goals and their margin of victory was just three points in both.
This figures to be another down-to-the-wire contest, and the Eagles with a touchdown head start get the call.
Eagles +7
At first this appeared an easy tout, but the spread and the Eagles have made it tough.
The line quickly went to Patriots -7 and hasn't fluctuated. When the number is so close to the anticipated outcome, it leaves very little margin for error, especially when you're playing the favorite.
But the real holdup here is the opponent. Consider the three biggest advantages the Patriots have against most teams going in: coaching, quarterback, kicker.
Belichick and departing coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel are the best at what they do. You certainly don't want to go up against them if they've had two weeks to prepare and dissect your offensive and defensive operations. But what about Andy Reid? His Eagles are 9-0 after bye weeks, including 3-0 in the postseason.
Tom Brady has never lost a playoff game and already has two Super Bowl MVPs on his mantel. You don't expect him to be rattled by the Eagles' blitzes, choreographed by coordinator Jim Johnson. Brady also has a 1,600-yard runner in Corey Dillon and a handful of non-glorified receivers who make big play after big play.
But what of Donovan McNabb? If not for Peyton Manning, McNabb easily would have been the NFL's MVP. He threw 31 TD passes with only eight interceptions, but what makes him a scary betting foe is that he can still take off and run with the best of them. In this Sunday's Post, ESPN's Ron Jaworski will diagram an Eagles play in which three WRs and the tight end all run deep post patterns, covered by five DBs. On the play, which Jaws took from last season's Pats rout of the Eagles, New England blitzes from all angles out of a 2-4-5 set. This forces Brian Westbrook to stay in and block, which is a Belichick goal, but leaves the whole center of the field wide open. If McNabb can escape the swarm, he can go 20-30 yards or more. Or, he can let loose way down field to any of four receivers, three of whom will be in single-coverage.
Then there's Adam Vinatieri, Mr. Clutch, who has already been the deciding factor in two Super Bowls. But if you're the Patriots, would you want your dynasty to be decided by the Eagles' David Akers kicking a 47-yarder? Didn't think so.
So there it is, a compelling case for Philadelphia, a team that is 15-1 in games in which it has even tried to compete this season, and also is getting the NFL's best receiver of 2004, Terrell Owens, back. But now it goes back to the original question: Can one advise people to bet against the Patriots? Against Brady? Against Belichick?
The answer is: No.
And the main reason is Belichick. He will identify the Eagles' most dangerous weapon, which is Westbrook, and keep him under wraps with blitz responsibility and the NFL's best playmaking linebacker, Tedy Bruschi. He will confuse McNabb with multiple different alignments and personnel packages that he's never seen before, even on Patriots film. He will have Rodney Harrison and the other DBs punish the Philly receivers early, sapping their will (remember what BB's Giants DBs did to Andre Reed in Super Bowl XXV).
How can he do this all at once? Doesn't he need 15 players to spy Westbrook, blitz everyone, watch for McNabb's escape runs and cover all the receivers? He doesn't, because of the sequencing. The Patriots' defense is always ready for the adjustment. One move ahead, or more, in the chess match.
We are watching a dynasty at work, and there's no doubt here that Bob Kraft will be hoisting a third Vince Lombardi Trophy in four years at about 10:15 Sunday night. The margin will determine whether you'll be sipping the $200-a-bottle Cristal or the $4 Andre.
Patriots 31, Eagles 20
=============
It's Super Bowl weekend and not only are the Patriots [stats, news] the team to beat, they are also on the verge of creating a dynasty.
Forget all the stats you'll hear - and have heard for the past two weeks - and focus on this: No team had a tougher road to the Super Bowl than New England, yet no team had an easier trip.
As the AFC playoffs loomed, three things were obvious: The Steelers would get the top seed and home-field advantage throughout the postseason; the Pats weren't far behind the Steelers but would have the unenviable task of winning in Pittsburgh, and the one team nobody wanted to play was the high-scoring Colts, led by Peyton Manning.
In back-to-back weeks, the Pats frustrated the league's best offense in a 20-3 drubbing of Indy, and followed that up by scoring 41 points vs. the NFL's top-rated defense in a 41-27 rout of Pittsburgh.
Off those two efforts, it is safe to say the Pats are on a postseason roll that has them poised to win their third Super Bowl in four years.
But before simply handing them the Lombardi Trophy, remember: The Eagles are a force to be reckoned with.
Philly has lost one meaningful game this season - it was hammered at Pittsburgh one week after the Pats met the same fate - and its losses in the season's final two games were a product of Andy Reid protecting his starters in meaningless games. The Eagles rebounded nicely with two easy wins in the playoffs.
Remember, too, that Reid has never lost a game he has had two weeks to prepare for, and that Philly's defense came together when Jeremiah Trotter became the starter at middle linebacker several weeks ago.
The absence of Terrell Owens - or reduced role if he does play - will hurt, but the Patriots are well aware it is possible to overcome injuries to superstars. And while the lack of Super Bowl experience could hurt the Eagles, New England was in that same position three years ago when it upset the Rams.
Finally, while the 7-point favored Patriots have won two recent Super Bowls, they have done so on final-second field goals and their margin of victory was just three points in both.
This figures to be another down-to-the-wire contest, and the Eagles with a touchdown head start get the call.
Eagles +7
Glad to seeyou back Senior. Was at a loss to read you are leaving since you are the first post I read every week of the NFL season. :clap:
