Playing Illinois and Princeton tonight - some analysis inside

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Updated 2005 record:

NFL Playoffs: 5-2 +$2,400
NCAA Basketball: 23-16 +$2,215
NBA: 4-6 -$660
January Record: 25-17 +$4,000
February Record: 7-7 -$45
Overall record: 32-24 +$3,955

After doing my capping here is what I got going for today - looking to get over the hump here in February - think it will happen today - gl!

Now for some analysis and my picks:

The fighting illini have just been phenominal - and been very profitable - just can't go against them as i'm riding their momentum...Michigan w/o one of best players - been beaten by 20+ on average over last 4 games - and just on a huge slide - and falling apart fast...don't worry that the game is on the road - Illini have won 13 straight - whether it's at home, or on the road, this team comes prepared and don't let up until the 40 minutes are over...i feel very comfortable laying my money on a team so focused...can Michigan cover - well i'd say they have a 30% chance of squeaking in a cover - so that means i feel 70% of the time the Illini covers in this spot - and thus i can justify not only playing the game, but look for a fast start as they love to come out fired up and get down to business - i took 1H as well...just don't see Illinois winning by any less than 20...and i've capped it from the contrarian standpoint looking for points to bet Michigan - i don't see it - lay the number here - Illinois too talented and the play tonight

Plays:
Illinois -8 1H
Risking $330 to win $300

Illinois -15 game
Risking $330 to win $300

Princeton - don't count them out to win this game outright...they come off of 2 losses to harvard and dartmouth - both games they should have won - this makes me like them even more - good angle here as they are 9-1 in last 10 games ATS as an underdog and a very impressive 23-6 for 79% covering when they are off of back to back losses...look for them to rebound and they will play this game close tonight - not gonna take the moneyline, i'll take the +8.5 - but a small play on the moneyline may be worth it if you want to take a shot at a good live dog...

Play:
Princeton +8.5 game
Risking $330 to win $300

GL if you choose to play these...
 

johnnyonthespot

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Feb 6, 2002
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Illinois and Michigan are certainly two teams going in different directions, but just can't bring myself to lay the DD on the road in conference play. Think the 1H is a real solid play, though. Illinois played sloppy against Indy at home Sunday and I think they want to get the taste out of their mouth. Hope you are right and the Illini roll by 25-30+!

GL
 

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Well Illini not looking good, picked up $500 on a 1H play in NBA, still think it will end up a solid day - adding this 2H play

St. John's +9
Risking $550 to win $500

too many points!
 

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Wow - what a night! First the Illinois debacle (really wish i made a play on MI 2H - that angle is awesome - but had enough committed to that game) - then winning princeton by a hook - overall 1-2 for -$360 - also pushed on St. Johns 2H - thought that one would be a good play - did manage to have a great 2-0 +$700 night in the NBA (thank you Spurs!) - so overall 3W-2L for the day, but a great day picking up +$340 profit!

February is heating up - I am currently hitting 57% of my plays (35W-26L for the year) - have averaged 57% over the last 5 complete years since I've been sports betting - so hanging around right at my average - this is my sustainable target number - and honestly that is all you can ask for (very tough to hit the 60% range - but can and has been done)...on that note though it the most important thing is our money management - some will make more money picking 50% winners, if their heavier weighted dollar picks win more than lose - and a 60% bettor could lose money if not properly managing the bankroll - keep this in mind - i do play different amounts on games based on percentage confidence in the pick - I hope some of you will follow and let's make it another winning month!

Updated 2005 record:

NFL Playoffs: 5-2 +$2,400
NCAA Basketball: 24-18 +$1,855
NBA: 6-6 +$40
January Record: 25-17 +$4,000
February Record: 10-9 +$295
Overall record: 35-26 +$4,295

GL let's keep up the good work everyone!
 
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