any of you think its a trap?? a road-ranked team vs a un-ranked team getting points. Iowa St was one of those winners today, but 8 1/2 seems like a aweful lot. Im seeing what any of your guys opinions are on it.. thanks
Pacific/Utah St
- Thread starter Kdogg21
- Start date
I orginially posted Utah State -6.5 last night before the big line moves. But I never put in my wager at that time. I thought the line might come down. Instead, I'll be playing Utah State -5 for the first half. Pacific keeps it close in the 2nd half IMO but Utah State should come out firing.
Played Pacific +9 here. Like I said before even if this is a TRAP it's gr8 value to take the 9 points.
i thought the same thing...unranked at home, favored over a ranked team...i must pound this game...but 8 points? I have my doubts, but it's hard to go against this time tested system.
i've offiicially taken today off but was hoping to see you guys on some solid plays just to have some action tonight...this was one of them that caught my eye in addition to the iowa st game (i don't bet for or against tt, they frick me every time)
i do have this to say...my gut is telling me utah state because they still need to make a name for themselves for the tourney...what troubles me is that pacific is not a team to make a name against...two usual also-rans who just happen to be having a good year...
hope this does more clearing than muddying the waters for you...i'm confused, too
i've offiicially taken today off but was hoping to see you guys on some solid plays just to have some action tonight...this was one of them that caught my eye in addition to the iowa st game (i don't bet for or against tt, they frick me every time)
i do have this to say...my gut is telling me utah state because they still need to make a name for themselves for the tourney...what troubles me is that pacific is not a team to make a name against...two usual also-rans who just happen to be having a good year...
hope this does more clearing than muddying the waters for you...i'm confused, too
Kdogg21 said:
I remember someone saying that the higher the spread, the better the chance of covering when it came to unranked favored over ranked. I don't believe in this system when it comes to the teams ranked 21-25. If someone had the data, I think you would find that more often than not, the ranked team covers when the team is ranked 21-25.
I've been burned too many times on the unranked system on the 21-25 teams. Probably gonna play Pacific.
nole
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Nole, if you could find out the percentages on that, I would be interested in finding out what you come up with.
Nickelback said:
I wish I knew where to start NB. I just keep a mental note on it and usually play the team that's ranked 21-25.
We shall see.
Good Luck Nickelback
nole
KDogg, I played Pacific +9. Public is all over Utah State. Line has risen 3 points since morning. I think Vegas wins again on this one.
Gl Nole,
Just a couple more thoughts on this one:
Utah State took Pacific to overtime on the road before losing by seven. They outrebounded but couldn't shoot nearly as well as Pacific. Now that they are at home where they shoot 56% and they probably have a rebounding edge, I don't think the 9 is that high of a number even though it looks like it is.
GL whatever anyone does on this game. Should be interesting to see how it turns out.
Just a couple more thoughts on this one:
Utah State took Pacific to overtime on the road before losing by seven. They outrebounded but couldn't shoot nearly as well as Pacific. Now that they are at home where they shoot 56% and they probably have a rebounding edge, I don't think the 9 is that high of a number even though it looks like it is.
GL whatever anyone does on this game. Should be interesting to see how it turns out.
thanks guys, I think im gonna go with Pacific too. I just listned to coach Bob Thomanson in a interview with a local radio stations. He seems very focused for this team and get this, you know his team has the best record since the beginning of 2004. he is like 47-4 something like that. unreal stat
...but 1 of those losses was against Utah State, where they lost by 14. Could be revenge factor though
First game this year went Double OT. This is a rivalry game in conference between two tough teams, one who is on fire (Pacific). 9 points seems awfully large. I am leaning towards playing Pacific.
Very Intersting game.
Utah st is a different team at home They score 78.09 a game there.
Pacific on the road plays nearly exactly the same on the road as home.
Utah st is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams avg only 7.48 a game. They shoot a sick 54.08 fg to Pacific 50.56.
ft% pacific avg 73.41
Utah st 70.07
Both teams avg at least + 2 assist to Turnover per game.
Line seems very fishy.
First half like nickle said looks tempting.
Utah st is a different team at home They score 78.09 a game there.
Pacific on the road plays nearly exactly the same on the road as home.
Utah st is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams avg only 7.48 a game. They shoot a sick 54.08 fg to Pacific 50.56.
ft% pacific avg 73.41
Utah st 70.07
Both teams avg at least + 2 assist to Turnover per game.
Line seems very fishy.
First half like nickle said looks tempting.
regarding the HOME FAVORED over RANKED TEAM SYSTEM
Just a note from previous seasons
02-03 season after Feb. 16th record 1 & 9
03-04 season after Feb. 16th record 4 & 9
So be careful after this weekend
Just a note from previous seasons
02-03 season after Feb. 16th record 1 & 9
03-04 season after Feb. 16th record 4 & 9
So be careful after this weekend
boilermaker said:
hmm, may not be a bad bet, Olympic is 40 cents less than that.....and we all know they dont give out free $$$......
If it matters to anyone this game exceded my 8 point spread swing. This means my numbers have this game as a 50/50 play. There is really no smart way to play this one.
My system says utah state should be a 2 point dog opened 6 point fav.
DONT PLAY THIS GAME :sadwave:
My system says utah state should be a 2 point dog opened 6 point fav.
DONT PLAY THIS GAME :sadwave:
what intrigues me is that this line has jumped 2.5-3 pts when the action on both sides is fairly even......
