wednesday ncaa basketball ....

gman2

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detroit titans first half (-5)

seventeen times, cleveland state has taken the two and a half hour bus ride up to detroit to play the titans.

seventeen times, cleveland state has come home with a loss.

you can pretty much cut and paste the writeup i did on this game 10 days ago. for 20:00 of basketball, the world came off its axis and cleveland state erased a 24-pt 2nd half deficit to pull off that stunning comeback win against the titans in cleveland. prior to that miracle, csu was 0-17 all-time in detroit, and 0-10 against detroit at any venue in the last five years. a fluke comeback doesnt change the fact that detroit suffocates csu every damn year with their defense and that as soon as the ball is tossed in the air, the titans jump on cleveland state and put them in an early hole.

halftime scores of the last ten csu/detroit games:

2/5/05 (detroit 44 csu 23)
2/7/04 (detroit 35 csu 25)
1/19/04 (detroit 35 csu 24)
3/1/03 (detroit 37 csu 19)
1/25/03 (detroit 29 csu 22)
3/2/02 (detroit 27 csu 26)
2/16/02 (detroit 28 csu 23)
1/19/02 (detroit 26 csu 17)
1/4/01 (detroit 48 csu 39)
1/18/01 (detroit 34 csu 19)

suffice to say, detroit has owned the 1st half against cleveland state recently. throw in some revenge for an almost impossible chokejob 10 days ago and i think were looking at another dominant first half from detroit against the vikings.



butler bulldogs (+12)
(will add small shot on butler moneyline when it becomes available as well)


this year the horizon league is pretty much wisconsin-milwaukee.......and then everyone else. nobody is in uwm's class. that being said, theyre not unbeatable. butler is one of those teams that on any given night can beat anyone. theyre in a rebuilding year and theyve taken some inexplicable losses, but theyre also a team that has big game experience and they played uwm really tough earlier in the season in indy. butler had a 4 point lead at halftime and a 6-point lead with 2:30 left in the game. uwm sent it into overtime with a late basket and then held off butler to win 71-68.

since getting ripped a new ass by illinois-chicago a few weeks ago, butler has done a good job off getting of to solid starts. they havent trailed in any of their last five games at halftime, and theyre also holding the opposition to an avg. of 26 pts at the break in their L5. thats the kind of defensive effort its gonna take to compete in milwaukee.

also think this can be a tricky game for uwm. theyre coming in off a blowout win (90-67 against youngstown) and then theyre taking off for a nice road trip to hawaii for the bracket buster shortly after this butler game. milwaukee does have a chance to clinch the conference title in this game but i still dont think we'll see milwaukee's best effort. i think theyll expect to roll the ball out, grab a win vs butler and then head to the island for a nice february weekend vacation (which, incidentally, is a game i think they will win and i'll likely be backing uwm there). but not tonight. butler should keep this much closer than many expect.
 
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pt1gard

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sh*t gman dare I CT that writeup hehe ... IM mulling, I have jinxed U to poughkeepsie and back :)

gl, gregg
 

gman2

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looks like +600 is the best im gonna find on the butler moneyline. cris, pinnacle, and olympic are all dealing the same moneyline. if anyone sees anything better than +600 let me know. otherwise, im gonna grab the 6/1 shot for a few small bucks in the middle of the afternoon since i wont be around closer to gametime.
 

DirtyBirds

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gman, tough break on detroit last time around, i was with you then as i am now. Anyway, last time was your horizon goy, so obiously very big for you. How big are you going to play this first half? thanks for you work, keep it up man.

dirty
 

thisisbad

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only +11.5 and 550 at 5dimes so no luck there.

I was wondering how you felt about a couple totals tonight, the overs in Emich and Bowling green? Might makea nice first half round robin with the DEt play, just a thought
 

gman2

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thisisbad:

havent seen any totals yet, but gotta think the bg/ball state total is gonna open up somewhere around 145 or 146. the first meeting between these two was 86-62 and ball state dominated bg. might be able to catch a few points of value because ball state is coming off two grinders (a game in the 50s against miami and a game in the 60s against buffalo). but when bsu is at their best, theyre running up and down the floor. in past years, bg has controlled tempo and hasnt really pushed the ball. this year, they are scoring (and giving up) a lot more points. i think the over could make some sense there.

as for eastern michigan, theyre a hard team to figure. to me, theyve given up on the season and mailed it in. their defense is godawful, but theyre not scoring as much as they should be. they have a lot of talent on that team but theyre not playing together. basically what im saying is that i have no clue what to expect from them. they are a team that is capable of scoring 85 or 90 points in a game... but theyre also capable of having a 62-point clunker. northern illinois isnt really an uptempo team but eastern michigan's defense can make any offense look like the showtime lakers. dont have a good read on this game. talentwise- emu is 8 or 10 points better. but with the way theyre playing, its a crapshoot, even for the total.


dirty:

definitely like the detroit play, but playing it for a normal amount. i think its got a very good chance of cashing, but i dont like to get too crazy on just 20:00 of basketball. the play itself is strong, but the amount im throwing on it is just average because i dont like to go nuts on 1/2 a game.
 

thisisbad

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I guess it would help if you didn't actually have to wait all day for totals to come out....

But thanks for the input. I appreciate the time you put into this, i always read your threads. I'll mull it over and make a play closer to gametime.

Good luck to you ya tonight
 

gman2

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thisisbad:

looks like there was a defiite overreaction to ball state playing a couple low scoring games lately. cris just opened the total at 140.5 so theres a lot of value in that over in my opinion.

eastern michigan total opened at 145. pretty much what i expected there. no emu total is gonna be cheap.
 

spang

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just a quick heads up, peterson made the trip and is expected to go tonight. Definitely a pass for me now. Good luck tonight
 

spang

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Spalding said:
Who is Peterson and for what team?

Akron's leading scorer. He was scratched Monday after breaking his nose and suffering a mild concussion in a collision at last saturdays practice.
 
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