NCAA Picks, 2/14/05-2/20/05

[BGFalcon]

YTD: 34-33-5

Monday:
UWGB/UIC under 134: After watching UIC in the second half against CSU, I think I would play this if the total was 104. They were very sloppy on offense and didn't really look to run at all. But, they are very athletic which should enable them to defend UWGB. This is a key game in the Horizon as UWGB wants to keep its hold on the #2 seed. They will value every possession. I think both teams will play pretty conservatively and keep the score in the low 60's.

 

[Another Steve]

Went with you and bam! total is at 135'. Any reasons?

 

[gman2]

i think thats one of the best plays on the board tonight. best of luck falcon. got some good exposure on the toledo over, but if things are looking promising at halftime, its likely ill jump in and bang the uic 2h under because i think its a solid play. frankly, im amazed the total is that high especially given the importance of this game for both teams

 

[BGFalcon]

I thought we would see a total of 126-128 and now its creeping up to 135.5. If it moves to 136 I'll put some more on it. FWIW, I like the Toledo over, too. I thought they would go over on Saturday but NIU didn't shoot very well. I hope this game is on FSN cause it should be fun to watch.

 

[BGFalcon]

Tuesday Pick

Tuesday Pick

Indiana +9 over Ohio St.: I know, I know, Ohio St. is tough at Value City Arena and Indiana can't win on the road. But, look at Ohio St.'s last 6 games. They have beaten Penn St.(twice), Purdue, Michigan, and NW (on a late game 18-1 run). Not exactly the elite of the Big 10. Ohio St. is also playing better defense now that Stockman is coming off the bench and that is keeping the score down. Indiana has played a very tough schedule and is playing good defense also. With both teams defending well, nine will be too a big of a number to cover for the Buckeyes. Wiright is questionable but Indiana may be better offensively without him because they have better balance. Both teams are right in the thick of things but the Buckeyes know they are not going to the Big Dance. Indiana is sitting on the bubble and needs to show the selection committee that they can win on the road in their conference. I have this game as a tossup on a neutral court so I'll take the 9 points.

 

[BGFalcon]

One for Tuesday

One for Tuesday

WMU/CMU under 146.5: This total is slightly inflated because of the number of points CMU scored against EMU and because of the number points WMU has given up in the past 5 games. I still like the under. I'm pretty sure I can go down to the local Y and find four other guys that could put up 72 on Eastern so I will not put much stock in that score. This game is one where Western should get things together defensively and prepare for the stretch run. I don't see the Chips getting more than 60 which means Western will have to score 87 for it to go over. I don't think the Broncos will be interested enough to score that many. They've got a chance win out and win the west and can't screw this one up. They should guard someone tonight. Take the under. (Just llike UWGB last night...err, never mind.) :cursin:

 

[caper]

falcon, care to venture an opinion on the side?...i'm seeing the chips surprising somewhat recently but think w mich unloads here, yes/no?...gl, caper

 

[BGFalcon]

I'm watching the line closely. I think that WMU will unload but I hate to lay so much road chalk.

 

[BGFalcon]

Wednesday Picks

Wednesday Picks

NIU/EMU over 145: I don't understand this number. EMU hasn't played a league game under this total since January 12. NIU is not an offensive powerhouse but EMU's defense can change that. Head Coach Jim Boone is probably done after this season which is too bad because he's a good coach. He's just had the misfortune to take over two lousy programs (Robert Morris was the other). But, I don't see the Hurons suddenly D'ing it up to save coach's job. I see this one getting into the 150's easily.

Wright St. -7 over YSU: I hate laying the road chalk but, incredibly, Wright St. is still in the hunt for one of the higher seeds in the conference tournament. They've got to go to UIC and host UWGB to finish the season so they can't slip up here. If Wright St. gets off to a good start, they should win by double digits. I have it lined at 11.5 so I'll lay the chalk.

Butler/UWM under 130: I think the only way gman gets his cover with Butler +12 is if this stays under 130. If the game gets moving up and down the court, Butler will be left in the dust. But, Butler rarely lets that happen. UWM has had games consistently scoring in the 140 or higher range except for a few select games. One of them was the first meeting with Butler (subtract the OT). It's senior night in Milwaukee so the complete focus will not be on the opponent. I see Butler setting the pace in the first half with UWM pulling out the second half victory. (Either that or McCants goes off for about 40 :shrug: )

Cleveland St. +9 over Detroit: This is the type of play that is tough to make. I am a numbers player and my numbers have the game lined at 3 so getting 9 is huge. With a total of 128, nine is a big number to cover. (Of course, I thought that with Indiana last night but I didn't factor in the Mike Davis variable.) I'm taking the Vikings +9 in a low-scoring battle.

 

[gman2]

like you said, the butler and under are naturally correlated. they have done a good job of making milwaukee play their style in the past. this is definitely under or nothin, but the number is a little too small for my liking. i was hoping more for a 134 or 135. gl falcon, you and thisisbad are kinda talking me into that emu over. its probably the way to go, given emu's sieve of a defense.

 

[BGFalcon]

Results: 1-2-1

No picks Thursday. I'll be busy sending "Fire Mike Davis" letters to the Hoosier Board of Trustees.

 

[BGFalcon]

Friday Pick

Friday Pick

Cornell -1 over Dartmouth: Cornell is putting together a pretty nice Ivy League season so far. They have a big game next weekend at Penn and can't afford to lose anymore in the league. Dartmouth is having trouble offensively and Cornell will take advantage of that. I have this one lined at -5 so laying one is the play.

May have a couple more when the totals are posted.

 

[BGFalcon]

Saturday Picks:

Saturday Picks:

Ohio +4.5 over Detroit, CMU -1.5 over Cleveland St., NIU +4.5 over Wright St.: Playing these three based on the strength of conference factor. Detroit is getting too much respect for its home court advantage, IMO and I think CMU will continue on from its success against WMU. I have NIU two points better than Wright St. on a neutral court. Even with home court advantage, the 4.5 is too high.

Miami -2 over Wichita St.: Miami is very good at home and has been able to find a way to win all year. They will control the tempo here and grind out a solid 5-6 point win.

EMU -6 over YSU: Numbers play on this one. I have the game lined at 9 so 6 or less is a play for me. Eastern might take out a little frustration on YSU.

I like UWM getting one against Hawaii but I'm concerned those guys went out there with their championship T-shirts and spent too much time checking out the scenery.

Note: After the week I've had, you might be better off using a dartboard rather than reading this post.

**Edited the spread on CMU. I had listed +1.5 when I meant -1.5

 

[BGFalcon]

One more side:

One more side:

Illinois -7 over Iowa: I think we will see a little quit come out in the Hawkeyes today. Illinois doesn't blow people out of the gym, especially on the road but they will cover the medium chalk here.

 

[BGFalcon]

Two totals

Two totals

Illinois/Iowa under 140 and Ohio St./Minnesota under 131.5: No time for write ups.

 

[BGFalcon]

Final Saturday Plays

Final Saturday Plays

Dartmouth PK Columbia: Dartmouth is 3-1 at home in the Ivy with a nice win last night. Columbia is 0-4 on the road with a tough loss last night. I'll grab the PK right now with the teams headed in opposite directions.

Akron/Niagra under 156: I think we'll see a little bit more defense and patience in this game than many are expecting. Both teams can play up-tempo but 156 is a little too high for this game. Akron hasn't had a game go over this total since in a month (except for the OT game).

 

[BGFalcon]

OSU/Minnesota now available at under 135

 

[BGFalcon]

Saturday results: 7-2-1

 

[BGFalcon]

Sunday Total:

Sunday Total:

Michigan/Indiana over 117: After watching Indiana's atrocious offensive performance against Ohio St. and with Michigan's recent offensive problems, I suspected we might get a pretty low number for this game. But, Horton will be back for Michigan so the offense should be more effecient (less turnovers, better shot selection). Wright is still listed as questionable for the Hoosiers but that shouldn't matter as much. Indiana got some great looks against Ohio St. but couldn't hit them. They will get even better looks against this Michigan team. The defensive intensity will not be there for either of these teams as they are playing out the string. Look for wide open shots and plenty of trips to the foul line. This one should be around 122 points.

 

[winw]

Congratulations on a great Saturday.