Nissan Open

[Stanley]

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts):

Luke Donald to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
Riviera is the only course on Tour to have hosted four major championships, so it is no surprise that it is already-proven winners who win this event. These three selections have won on this Tour or the WGC and have won internationally as well so should go close if Tiger still fails to life this trophy. Donald's record around this course is admittedly poor, but last year was a sizeable improvement on previous years and his course form is already factored into this price. He should have won once this year already, but on short courses where accuracy is the key, he really should be a contender every time. He will certainly record his best finish at Riviera this week.

Darren Clarke to win 40/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler and BetFred
Opposed Clarke in a matchup last week as I thought his home worries would still be affecting his game, but the news at home is good and his performances do appear to be rather solid. He ended 2004 with a win in Japan and has finished 4th and 6th in his two starts this year. With a top-10 finish on this course two years to add to his credentials, he should certainly start this event at much lower odds.

Shigeki Maruyama to win 50/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Victor Chandler and GolfingGods
Maruyama is another who should have won a PGA Tour title this year. His loss of nerve took place in the Sony Open in Hawaii, but with two solid performances since that event and a 2nd place finish to Mike Weir last year - and he really should have taken Weir to at least a playoff - this is another price that will not last.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

a couple to place top 5
Mccarron 14/1 BF
Couples 22/1 BF

Mccarron had 2 place finish here couple years back and current form best its been in a while with 6th-cut-2nd in 05.

Couples playing decent this year till being paired with Hackin Duval for 3 days last week. No secret this course is Freddies fav with 2 wins and 3 runner ups lifetime--so will look at these odds.

Been getting foot in door on these long place odds only to have it slammed in final rd collapses past 3 weeks with Magee-Waldorf and Herron all at around 20/1--maybe get one to the house here.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

a couple unique match ups @ Oly

Verplank -110 over Maru
Hass -110 over Rose

Verplank has beaten Maru all 4 events in common here past 5 years and is 11-4 in last 15 events in common

Haas has not missed cut here in past 5 years and is 10-1 vs Rose in last events in common.

 

[Whalers Rule]

Adam Scott 40-1 win
Robert Allenby 80-1 win
Stephen Ames 100-1 win

I bet these three at 5 dimes for very small amounts and 15 minutes later all three are at lower odds


The above were one unit each to win adding to place at golfinggods 1 unit each

Scott 8.5-1
Allenby 20-1
Riley 25-1

Half unit each

Brian Davis 60-1
Leaney 66-1
Janzen 50-1
Rose 28-1

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

looked very hard at Allenby myself,WR.

adding a couple 72 holes @ WTTS
T Clark -110 over Howell
Verplank -125 overK Perry

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Scott Verplank to beat Scott McCarron -110 @ SkyBet [3pts]
McCarron did close with two 65s to finish 2nd in the FBR Open two weeks ago, but he is anything but a consistent player. He has finished in the top-10 twice in the last six months and has missed the cut on his next start. In fact, over the past year, that was the only time in 14 common events that McCarron has finished ahead of Verplank. Having also finished ahead of Verplank just once in the last five years at Riviera, he should not be evenly-priced in this matchup.
(also available at William Hill, Easybets and BlueSq)

Scott Verplank to beat Adam Scott +100 @ Five Dimes
Scott has never played on this course and continues to look a long way from the player that won two PGA Tour events in the first half of 2004. Verplank has finished ahead of him in six of their last eight common events, so I'll take evens in this matchup.
(also available at NordicBet)

Loren Roberts to beat Jonathan Kaye -125 @ SIA
The short Riviera course is well-suited to Roberts' game and he has proven to be a very consistent performer there, which is something that Kaye is also ... but at the other end of the leaderboard. In five visits, he has missed the cut four times and finished 43rd on his weekend stay. Having only finished ahead of Roberts once in ten common events over the last year, he really should be more of an underdog.

Justin Rose to beat Ian Poulter -110 @ SkyBet
Poulter's finishing positions since September make incredible reading: one win, two further top-10 finishes, five missed cuts and post-rd1 withdrawal. With no course experience that makes him an ideal player to oppose in matchups and I'll gladly side with his close friend when these two play on the PGA Tour.
(also available at William Hill, Five Dimes and Easybets)

 

[sports student]

72 hole

Pampling +130 over Casey (oly)
Magee -130 over Casey (5 dimes)

1st round

Magee -120 over Casey (5 dimes)

still waiting to see Casey play his 1st rounds on mainland US soil after his comments last year.

 

[Another Steve]

Nissan Open Plays

Nissan Open Plays

Last week was all bad for me, from the getgo. Looking hard for Plays, decided to go with

Mike Weir WINS NISSAN OPEN+13.00 2 Units

Mike played great last week and would have except Philly. So my lone MatchUp for the week will be

Mike Weir OV/Retief Goosen-1.20 2 Units

Hate going against Goosen, think he will also have a good tourney just want Mike to finish one ahead

MatchUp YTD Record 4-5-1

 

[OAKAS]

Goosen has been disqualified for the Nissan Open. It seems he over-slept for the Pro-Am today, and will not play this week.

 

[phar lap]

Round 1 18 hole spread bets

1. Mark Calcavecchia / Rich Beem 2 - 5 at SportingIndex
Buy at 5 for 1 unit to be with Calcavecchia.

2. Brian Davis / Brendan Jones 2 - 5 at SportingIndex
Buy at 5 for 1 unit to be with Davis.

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

Mike Weir(14/1) e.w. @ Bet365
- - Weir's best is pretty sweet, and I expect a solid measure of just that . . . This Monday price at Bet365 surprised me.

Shigeki Maruyama(50/1) e.w. @ Bet365
- - YTD themes suggest some wee value here.


MATCHUPS:

Weir(-115) over Goosen (Tournament) @ 5dimes
- - Scratch that, Goose Man.

Pampling(+130) over Casey (Tournament) @ Olympic
- - They see something I don't.


Nothing else feels quite right - so by morning I'll probably jump on something sappy over something worthy.


The most interseting read I stumbled upon this week came about from a google search of "shotlink stats":
http://www.golfdigest.co.za/stories/webexclusives/webexclusives6.php


GL

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Interesting and thanks LIA---report on Weir scrambling from 30 yards bodes well with this course as it has some of smallest greens on tour--think scrambling and putting are two most importants stats to my calculations this week--have 2 in field that rank in top 10 of both catagories in 05 Tim Clark 5th scram/8th putt and McCarron 9th scram/1st putt (putts are per GIR)

with that in mind will add another 72 hole
T Clark -111 over Donald at Boyles--ties lose

1st rd play Prop
Birdies or Better
Tigers -135 over Scott

a little heavy on odds but worth a look to my thinking.

Lots of other props available but will tread lightly till see course condition today and rain and cool temps projected all week--identicle to last year.

 

[lostinamerica]

Adding:

OUTRIGHTS:

Jeff Maggert(125/1) e.w. @ 5dimes

Fred Couples(80/1) e.w. @ Bet365

What grey weather? :wall:

GL

 

[Another Steve]

Goosen overslept...A DNS was a positive for me, left with the Straight and Wier is off to a good start.

 

[Agent 0659]

Round 2 action
Tiger -200 vs Howell parlay with Furyk -125 vs Choi 100/170

Tiger -200 vs Howell parlay with Leonard -125 vs Verplank 100/170

Leonard -125 vs Verplank 63/50

Good luck

 

[sports student]

2nd round:

Petterson even over Casey -front 9 (hollywood)
Appleby + 1/2 -115 over Allenby (hollywood)
Ames +110 over Leonard (pinn)

only thing I could find in my books that lets me play against Casey, but want to keep going for it. Appleby has shot 64 and 67 in only two 2nd rounds this year and last year shot 64 in 2nd round here. Good luck

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

yesterdays prop 1-0
1st rd play Prop
Birdies or Better
Tigers -135 over Scott win
=============================
2nd rd props & match play/will try one/catagory
Birdies or better
Tiger -130 over D Clarke
GIRS
Woods -110 + 1/2 over Furyk
2nd rd low front 9 holes
Waldorf +105 over Omeara

Match play at 5dimes
Maggert -108 over Geoff Ogilvy

 

[loophole]

hey dtb, long time now hear from so i thought i'd check out your stomping grounds here in the golf forum. i hear you guys do some pretty work in here.


question for you - why would parnevik be a underdog to briny baird in a second round matchup?

 

[lostinamerica]

2nd Round:

PARLAY Price(+162) over Appleby/Mattiace w/ Weir(-150) over Haas/Pavin
@ 3.38/1 @ Bet365

GL

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Whats up brother Loop.
You know I looked at match hard--especially in light of Parny being such a good scrambler (ranked 6th last year) and these small greens.One thing kept me from pulling trigger--muddy conditions.
Last year was similiar weather and Baird finished 10th and Parney 78th. If yo ever watch Parney play you will note he hit down on ball at steep angle--taking generous divot. It is hard to guage distance when driving the ball down in soft turf--those that pick the ball pretty clean have adv in these conditions.--but still would not let that turn you off if you like play--just would not load the wagon if you know what I mean.
Good seeing you down here