Billy Blastoff Plays 2/23
- Thread starter Billy Blastoff
- Start date
Interesting system, albeit seemingly counter-intuitive. (You will not see those last 3 words in any coherent document, good $$$ays...where's that editor I ordered, waiter?)
I was wondering...
What happens if the oddsmakers simply
'make a mistake' with the line, as opposed to
witholding some gnostic forumulations
(i.e. secret information)
If there is a discrepancy between your projected
line and the line provided, common sense would tell most people to seek value through such
discrepancies.
You do the opposite, here.
Almost begging to invest in negative value.
Can you provide an example of what kind of
secret information the linesmakers have, that the
rest of us are not privy too?
Injuries, incentive, revenge, etc. are obviously
off the table.
Betting patterns by the public as well.
Say you're projecting a 60% chance for a team to win a game, but you're expecting the line to be in the -110 range (hence providing value).
The line comes out and, to your surprise (?),
the line is -150 (thus eliminating any value; in fact, creating a coin-toss situation), would you then conclude that the linesmakers know something that you do not, and therefore assume that your 60% projection is too low?
I'm not trying to stir a chit-storm, or argue for the sake of arguing; I'm simply trying to understand the gnosticism implied here, as your theory basically goes against my own philosophy when trying to corral value.
Good luck to you all the same.
I was wondering...
What happens if the oddsmakers simply
'make a mistake' with the line, as opposed to
witholding some gnostic forumulations
(i.e. secret information)
If there is a discrepancy between your projected
line and the line provided, common sense would tell most people to seek value through such
discrepancies.
You do the opposite, here.
Almost begging to invest in negative value.
Can you provide an example of what kind of
secret information the linesmakers have, that the
rest of us are not privy too?
Injuries, incentive, revenge, etc. are obviously
off the table.
Betting patterns by the public as well.
Say you're projecting a 60% chance for a team to win a game, but you're expecting the line to be in the -110 range (hence providing value).
The line comes out and, to your surprise (?),
the line is -150 (thus eliminating any value; in fact, creating a coin-toss situation), would you then conclude that the linesmakers know something that you do not, and therefore assume that your 60% projection is too low?
I'm not trying to stir a chit-storm, or argue for the sake of arguing; I'm simply trying to understand the gnosticism implied here, as your theory basically goes against my own philosophy when trying to corral value.
Good luck to you all the same.
Michigan last played Penn State on 1-15.
The Wolverines closed as 6 pt road chalk and got the win/no cover, 66-62.
The game was close throughout, and even though Michigan was outrebounded 40-29 in the victory, they benefited from a 19-4 edge in points off the bench.
The Wolverines closed as 6 pt road chalk and got the win/no cover, 66-62.
The game was close throughout, and even though Michigan was outrebounded 40-29 in the victory, they benefited from a 19-4 edge in points off the bench.
EXTRAPOLATER said:
System is based soley on the theory Vegas is the great and powerfull Oz. The system just tries to figure which line is vegas tweaking ( if any just a theory). It has had great success over a 12 week run but whos to say. Lets just hope it isnt a flash in the pan system.
