Trends and Systems you play during the Year

[jordan23]

Hi Guys,

Lets start talking some baseball. Anyone play any trends or systems through the year that have been profitable for them????

 

[GM]

Only games I ever play in baseball are on the 'double-header' system. I'd imagine most people are familiar with it.

Take the home team in the opening game. If they win you don't play game #2. If they lose however, you double up on the home side on game #2.

Doesn't seem to matter who plays who. The home team rarely gets swept, regardless of the matchups. It works!

 

[jordan23]

Hey GM,

That is a good one. One that I follow is the Chicago Cubs afternoon games. If the total is 10 or more go over, less than 10 go under.

Any others guys???

 

[IntenseOperator]

Jordan

I've noticed over the years, the Cubs win when they are not suppose to and lose when they are not suppose to. Don't have any numbers to back this up, but the dog in any Cub game is probably solid in the long run.

 

[Englishman]

I always look for home dogs on any card....I have no evidence for this, but it often forms the basis for my handicapping a game. I would be very interested in comments on this.

Thanks.

 

[danmurphy jr]

Doesn't happen often, but a 6 o/u is good for an under. Pitchers often win on their birthdays. LHPs changing leagues often do well.

 

[ndnfan]

The revenge game with pitchers who just faced each other in their previous start (within say the past week).

Seems to work good since the losing pitcher tends to make adjustments vs the hitters while the hitters on the other team are making adjustments vs the same pitching that dominated them.

Seems to work well unless one of the pitchers has overwhelming career numbers vs the particular team he is facing which I tend to stay away from in that case.

 

[danmurphy jr]

This is going to be a cool thread.There are a ton of spot plays to be made just using the USA Today.

 

[Kdogg21]

you can find some good value in dogs early in the season. You will notice alot of the good pitchers take some time to get going during the season and if you bet against them, you can make some quick dough. Keep an eye out in O/U for Chicago games this year. US Cellular and Wrigley were 1/2 for most homeruns hit in their park. I like to bet on pitchers who have faired well against certain teams as well. If the price is right, take it.

 

[Sun Tzu]

Pretty simple - dont bet favorites over 120. I bet much less baseball than I used to since I cant seem to find 10 cent lines anymore and thus the benefit to dog players has been severely hampered.

 

[hogman14]

Play the UNDERDOG on the ESPN Sunday Night game. I have found this to be a pretty consistent winner.

 

[Eternal]

You can only use this one after the all-star game but it is profitable....

Go against any pitcher in his first start after the all star game if he pitched at least one inning during the all star game......

 

[jordan23]

These are great guys, keep them coming

Any others ?????????

 

[danmurphy jr]

A play on Eternal's post. Play against an allstar on his start/s after being selected and before the game. Same profitability. 1.40 is usually the accepted max for favorites. Jack Painter(deceased) would play streaks all the way out. Mediocre teams(Seattle) would sometimes go on 10-12 game binges with 3.00 prices. When the streak ends, give them a game break and start over again.. They are all capable and will have streaks.

 

[Jaxx]

Here is a few I have copied down not sure numbers are exact

----------------------
APRIL HOME DOGS
Overall = 383-459 (+19.6 units)

Home Dog off a win vs. Away TM off a loss = 155-154 (+35.6 units)

April Home Dogs that have a .550+ record (98-82 +37.2 units).

---------------------
Rubber game
Game 3 of 3 game series that is tied
Home Favs: 824-535 (60.6%) +23.8 units
Away Favs: 390-248 (61.6%) +45.6 units

-----------------------


The plus 2 runs theory

Take the average offensive runs scored for the last 3 games. If the dog has a 2 run advantage over the fav, then you have a live underdog with hot bats.



The 3 win fav theory

After a good team wins 3 consecutive games, play them for the next 3 starts if (A) they are at home, and (B) the price is below -160


The 3 losses away fav theory

Go against the team that has 3 consecutive losses and is a road fav in the 4th game.


Pitcher rematch

If the same 2 pitchers face each other again, then take the loser of the previous game to win the rematch.


The 7-11 theory

Bet on any underdog that has won at least 7 or more of it's last 11 games......Bet against any fav that lost 7 or more of it's last 11 games.



Pitcher Ace

Bet any ace not to lose a 3rd consecutive game at home.

-------------------------------
In spring traing bet a good team off a loss especially playing a bad team off a win. Even bettor if the the good team has lost two or more games in a row!

 

[jordan23]

Any More??

 

[Terryray]

some good articles and tips here such as:


"Look for weak links in starting rotations. Especially in recent years, some starters get their jobs by default. The worst of them will lose and lose until the manager sends them to the bullpen or the minors. We love to bet against them. Cash a few bets by going against obvious incompetents and starters who are 1.00 or more worse in ERA for last season than the other starters on their team. If they throw a winning quality start, take them off the "bet against" list"

kinda obvious, but not so much in April--and you can find values spotting them early.

 

[RAYMOND]

LAST YEAR I PLAYED A TEAM OFF A LOSS VS A TEAM OFF A WIN I HIT AROUND 80%

 

[jordan23]

Ray is this preseason only???

 

[danmurphy jr]

Last year, American sports bettors lost $3.7 Billion to American and Foreign bookies. They wager on anything-anytime.
People who do this for a living or a disciplined hobby use the trends offered here as a major part of their effort. The sportsbooks know everything we know, plus. Professional gamblers, at least those I have met, let 25% of the season play before they put these trends and systems in play. This post is only a contribution, not a debate or opinion