last week was second losing week in 15 weeks. lost 2 units last week .
Only one play today:
Bowling Green -3 line should be -6
Only one play today:
Bowling Green -3 line should be -6
Billy Blastoff 3/7
- Thread starter Billy Blastoff
- Start date
With Billy's system, the play should be Ball State. If the line should be Ball State +6 and they are +3, Vegas knows something about this game and thus per Billy's system the play should be BS +3
Regardless of which the play is, as I have asked before, where does the "line should be" come from? Cannot argue with the success he apparently has had, but "should be lines" by definition are pretty arbitrary arent they? I remember he had one a couple of weeks ago on the Colorado game. The line was off course off due to suspensions.
Sun:
Billy's "should be" lines come from his own computer analysis. He plugs in ratings and stats, and it spits out the lines...that simple...he applies no human judgement to them, whatsoever.
The fact that they DO come so very close to Vegas' opening numbers, with few exceptions, speaks volumes about its accuracy, regardless of whether or not you agree or disagree with what it says the line "should be".
For more on this, you should dig up every thread since the beginning, and get a good feel for how his system works.
While it seems that it's just not a good final week or two system, it was solid when we had it earlier. I look forward to seeing more next year!
Billy's "should be" lines come from his own computer analysis. He plugs in ratings and stats, and it spits out the lines...that simple...he applies no human judgement to them, whatsoever.
The fact that they DO come so very close to Vegas' opening numbers, with few exceptions, speaks volumes about its accuracy, regardless of whether or not you agree or disagree with what it says the line "should be".
For more on this, you should dig up every thread since the beginning, and get a good feel for how his system works.
While it seems that it's just not a good final week or two system, it was solid when we had it earlier. I look forward to seeing more next year!
Thanks for the explanation. As I said cant argue with success.
But, on a side note, as we discussed with the BCS, let's not forget computers are programmed by people, so there is always some human judgment involved, but it sounds much better than clowns like Sagarin.
But, on a side note, as we discussed with the BCS, let's not forget computers are programmed by people, so there is always some human judgment involved, but it sounds much better than clowns like Sagarin.
Sun Tzu said:
NO tweeking what so ever. I dont waste one brain cell in analysing a game. The only thing I have to do is type in the picks to this forum.
Jackanape:
I do not believe BB plugs numbers into a program that spits out numbers. BB gets what the "should be" lines from some site that he "shouldn't be" able to see. He then does a comparison with the opening line.
I do not believe BB plugs numbers into a program that spits out numbers. BB gets what the "should be" lines from some site that he "shouldn't be" able to see. He then does a comparison with the opening line.
BALL ST is the play, At this time of the year I can look at the lines and see the play when I am going good. Sat & sunday I was feeling it. This Ball St game is one that I think I am on the right side. Had BG -2 -vs- Miami Oh and the line closed @ BG +2. BG won the game by one and covered the closing line but the early money on BG was lost. I'm not sure why I know, but I said to myself, there is something wrong with BG . BG has lost 3 of 4 ATS and the only win was that funny line move. Long story short I think BILLY is on the right side. Not trying to take over your Thread, just trying to help PK WINNERS and your post confirmed something for me.
Got + 2 1/2 with ball state happy to start week 1-0, hope others where as fortunate to get a win and not a push.
