monday ncaa basketball ........

G

gman2

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 12, 2002
9,827
16
0
been a long, arduous hoops season but caught a hot streak at the right time i guess.

eastern michigan (+10.5)

i have to admit that im a sucker for this kind of setup in conference tourney play every season. an overachieving chalk vs. an underachieving dog makes for a skewed line and a ton of value.

akron exceeded all expectations this year and played a helluva lot better than i expected after wood went down with the acl injury.

eastern michigan, on the other hand, went from being expected to compete with toledo for the mac west title.....to turning in a 5-13 mac season and 12-17 overall.

eastern michigan probably has as much talent as anyone in the conference but they grossly underachieved this year. my opinion and a quarter can get you a tall hot chocolate, but i think the losing culture around emu is what did them in. they havent had success since the boykins days and every time they met adversity this season, they folded. of course they dont play particularly good defense either but they can score with anyone. i think theyre the pepperdine of the mac. great offense, lame defense, tons of talent, but incredibly inconsistent. but thats what i love about tourney time. all the regular season success or failure means little. teams like emu get another chance to make something of their season.

this is all entirely subjective analysis, but i really think if you look at the talent of these two teams, its a damn near toss-up and probably a pick'em type game. throw in 3 points for akron's home court and another basket for the coaching edge and better discipline on the zips' side..... and you're lookin at a game that i expect to be decided by 6 points or less. i just dont see akron ever pulling away. eastern michigan got to the line 110 more times than akron this season (488 in 18 gms for emu....378 in 18 for akron). they have to continue that trend tonight. if they get to the line 20+ times, im gonna really like my chances. no doubt emu has had their share of problems this season. but theres a shitload of value with 'em tonight if they finally decide to come to play.

===========

also like creighton in the mvc final but have a future on the jays to win the conference tourney at +700 from carib so really no need to put any more on this one. just gonna sit back and take my chances. as of now, not planning to hedge it either. but i'll re-evaluate that idea at halftime, lol. but i think creighton is playing damn good basketball right now and sms has had to rally in the 2nd half twice in the last two nights. fatigue could show up in the 2nd half. we'll see. but like the jays.
 
G

gman2

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 12, 2002
9,827
16
0
rcx:

its conceivable. and it wouldnt be a total shocker. but akron finds ways to win, whereas emich finds ways to lose. thats what is ultimately keeping me off the moneyline. i really dont think akron will ever lead by more than 7 or 8 points so emu should be there the whole way. but just dont have the requisite faith to moneyline the eagles. think akron wins by 4 or 5.
 
G

gman2

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 12, 2002
9,827
16
0
hawkeye:

northern illinois is the only team in the conference i wont play over the total. theyre too methodical and kinda slow the game down. not saying the total isnt low. just saying that niu is the one team thats tough to bet over in this conference. and i think the huskies know if they let buffalo run on 'em, theyre done.
 
J

johnnyonthespot

Registered User
Forum Member
Feb 6, 2002
1,459
18
38
46
Cottonwood Heights, UT
Hey gman; well the Creighton game carries the old adage that "it's tough to beat a team 3 times in one year". Just wondering if you factored that in at all or if you've even found that to be true. It seems like you only hear about it when the team that has already lost twice wins, but when the team wins all three no one sees it as an upset. Any thoughts?

BTW, like Creighton just based on how they're playing right now. This should be a real good game; as these are 2 good teams that definitely won't be getting an at-large.

Will ride the EMU game with ya too. GL 2 us!
 
gjn23

gjn23

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 20, 2002
9,319
45
48
54
So. Cal
Wow
This play keeps getting worse and worse....20 point lead now for Akron????
 
gjn23

gjn23

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 20, 2002
9,319
45
48
54
So. Cal
no i dont expect him to win every game....nobody wins more than 65 %


i did buy into his analysis of talent being fairly equal, FT shooting, and the game not getting too far away from EMU...but down 20 begs for a big run and or begging for the backdoor cover...lots of time left down 14 now, so spread is still up in the air.
 
G

gman2

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 12, 2002
9,827
16
0
no problem bumping this one.
it simply didnt cash.
obviously game got away from emu early and they were playing catchup.
as far as the capping side of it, by no means did i have the right side nor am i trying to imply that.
i do, however, feel that after watching the game theres no doubt emich had the best player on the floor (austin) and has every bit as much talent as akron does. that part of my analysis i absolutely stand behind.
but you could just tell that one team buys into what its coach preaches (akron) as opposed to the other team just not having any heart or nutsack and not having any identity. there were numerous loose balls that akron got to that emich stood and watched. too many times emich would stop playing if they didnt get a foul called on their shot. and there were too many defensive breakdowns that killed emich when they were making 6-0 runs to try and get back in it. and when emich had it down to 11 and 12 a handful of times, they simply threw the ball away on unforced errors. (and of course when they were down 11 and got a steal, the kid missing a wide open fast break layup didnt help)
and bowler is the biggest piece of shit ive ever seen.
and of course to make the close loss even tougher, emich had numerous chances at the backdoor but allowed a travis tip dunk with under 1:00 to seal it. if they grab the damn board, that final 3 makes it a 10 pt final. would have been a cheap cover, but it was there for the taking.
lookin forward to the tourney as it shifts to cleveland.
 
Last edited:
S

Sun Tzu

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 10, 2003
6,197
9
0
Houston, Texas
whew........

glad you are here. I thought maybe after that Monmouth collapse yesterday that the season had lost meaning for you.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Bet on MyBookie
Top