by Chuck Sippl, Senior Editor
Sixty-five teams of varying quality begin their quest for the NCAA basketball championship this Tuesday. By Sunday evening--after a play-in game and the first two rounds--the field will be down to only sixteen of the best (and/or luckiest) teams.
This issue is devoted to coverage of the first two rounds, which can often be difficult to handicap because of the many "off" teams (i.e., teams from lower-echelon leagues whose games are not regularly listed on the Las Vegas line) that play highly-seeded teams. The form of the "off" teams is often hard to judge, so the "X Factor" in the first round goes up. Often the only reference points are early-season games versus "lined" teams in November or December holiday tournaments. The problem is that, like many major conference teams, most of the teams from lower-echelon leagues don't "find" themselves until their conference seasons. When it comes to the NCAA tournament, it's best to handicap a team on its current form, not its earlier form.
Generally speaking, the NCAA tournament has confirmed the impression that more overall parity exists in college basketball in recent years. Many high school blue-chip stars now never play in college; many top college players head for the pros after just a year or two. With fewer premium players, it is harder for the elite programs to separate themselves from others. Meanwhile, the number of quality role players throughout the nation has increased due to the improved overall quality of high school hoops. Thus, teams in low-echelon leagues have a chance to put together squads that can sometimes be surprisingly competitive with the "big boys."
OVERALL. In the 2004 NCAA tourney, for the second straight year, underdogs led the favorites 36-28 overall. Thus, the dogs have out-paced the favorites 72-56 (56.3%) the last two years.
THE SECOND ROUND. In 12 of the previous 16 years, favorites have led the underdogs in the second round, when many long-shot winners from Round One face their second tough challenge in three days. In 2004, however, underdogs had lots of bite in Round Two, covering 12 of 16 contests, winning nine straight up!
"HOME" TEAMS. Each year, there are a few teams that play at sites that greatly favor one side over the other, such as Kansas playing its first two games (and covering both) last year at Kansas City, less than 40 miles from its Lawrence campus. In 2004, such "home" or "home-neutral" teams were 6-5 vs. the spread. Since 1985, they're now 87-53-3 (62.1%).
DOUBLE-DIGIT FAVORITES. Even though underdogs led the favorites overall in last year's tourney, double-digit favorites were 9-7 vs. the spread. Over the last two years, DD favorites are 16-16; 52-61 the last six years. Super-size favorites of 20 points or more were 3-3 last year; 8-8 the last three years; 50-51-1 the last 20 years.
THE PLAY-IN GAME. In the four years since its inception, the underdog has covered all four of these contests, winning three of them straight up!
"OFF" TEAMS. As previously noted, these are the teams representing the lower-echelon leagues not regularly covered on the Las Vegas line. They can vary greatly in strength. In 2004, "off" teams were 7-6 vs. the spread, with only one (Manhattan) winning in the first round (75-60, +5 vs. Florida). Over the last 5 years, "off" teams are now 40-43-2 vs. the spread.
Here's how the combined representatives of the minor conferences have done in the NCAA tourney since 1994, with this year's tourney representative right behind. (Results include the play-in game the last four years.)
America East 1-11 straight up; 3-9 vs. spread. This year: VERMONT (24-6)
Atlantic Sun/Trans-America 2-12 SU; 7-6-1 vs. spread. TY: CENTRAL FLA. (24-8)
Big Sky 2-11 SU; 7-5-1 vs. spread. This year: MONTANA (18-12)
Big South 1-9 SU; 4-6 vs. spread. This year: WINTHROP (27-5)
Metro-Atlantic 3-12 SU; 8-7 vs. spread. This year: NIAGARA (20-9)
Mid-Continent Conference 2-9 SU; 5-6 vs. spread. This year: OAKLAND (12-18)
MEAC 3-11 SU; 11-3 vs. spread. This year: DELAWARE STATE (19-13)
Northeast 0-11 SU; 5-6 vs. spread. This year: FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON (20-12)
Ohio Valley 0-11 SU; 5-6 vs. spread. This year: EASTERN KENTUCKY (22-8)
Patriot League 0-11 SU; 6-5 vs. spread. This year: BUCKNELL (22-9)
Southern Conference 2-11 SU; 8-5 vs. spread. This year: CHATTANOOGA (20-10)
Southland Conference 1-11 SU; 4-8 vs. spread. This year: SE LOUISIANA (24-8)
SWAC 0-11 SU; 6-5 vs. spread. This year: ALABAMA A&M (18-13)
Sixty-five teams of varying quality begin their quest for the NCAA basketball championship this Tuesday. By Sunday evening--after a play-in game and the first two rounds--the field will be down to only sixteen of the best (and/or luckiest) teams.
This issue is devoted to coverage of the first two rounds, which can often be difficult to handicap because of the many "off" teams (i.e., teams from lower-echelon leagues whose games are not regularly listed on the Las Vegas line) that play highly-seeded teams. The form of the "off" teams is often hard to judge, so the "X Factor" in the first round goes up. Often the only reference points are early-season games versus "lined" teams in November or December holiday tournaments. The problem is that, like many major conference teams, most of the teams from lower-echelon leagues don't "find" themselves until their conference seasons. When it comes to the NCAA tournament, it's best to handicap a team on its current form, not its earlier form.
Generally speaking, the NCAA tournament has confirmed the impression that more overall parity exists in college basketball in recent years. Many high school blue-chip stars now never play in college; many top college players head for the pros after just a year or two. With fewer premium players, it is harder for the elite programs to separate themselves from others. Meanwhile, the number of quality role players throughout the nation has increased due to the improved overall quality of high school hoops. Thus, teams in low-echelon leagues have a chance to put together squads that can sometimes be surprisingly competitive with the "big boys."
OVERALL. In the 2004 NCAA tourney, for the second straight year, underdogs led the favorites 36-28 overall. Thus, the dogs have out-paced the favorites 72-56 (56.3%) the last two years.
THE SECOND ROUND. In 12 of the previous 16 years, favorites have led the underdogs in the second round, when many long-shot winners from Round One face their second tough challenge in three days. In 2004, however, underdogs had lots of bite in Round Two, covering 12 of 16 contests, winning nine straight up!
"HOME" TEAMS. Each year, there are a few teams that play at sites that greatly favor one side over the other, such as Kansas playing its first two games (and covering both) last year at Kansas City, less than 40 miles from its Lawrence campus. In 2004, such "home" or "home-neutral" teams were 6-5 vs. the spread. Since 1985, they're now 87-53-3 (62.1%).
DOUBLE-DIGIT FAVORITES. Even though underdogs led the favorites overall in last year's tourney, double-digit favorites were 9-7 vs. the spread. Over the last two years, DD favorites are 16-16; 52-61 the last six years. Super-size favorites of 20 points or more were 3-3 last year; 8-8 the last three years; 50-51-1 the last 20 years.
THE PLAY-IN GAME. In the four years since its inception, the underdog has covered all four of these contests, winning three of them straight up!
"OFF" TEAMS. As previously noted, these are the teams representing the lower-echelon leagues not regularly covered on the Las Vegas line. They can vary greatly in strength. In 2004, "off" teams were 7-6 vs. the spread, with only one (Manhattan) winning in the first round (75-60, +5 vs. Florida). Over the last 5 years, "off" teams are now 40-43-2 vs. the spread.
Here's how the combined representatives of the minor conferences have done in the NCAA tourney since 1994, with this year's tourney representative right behind. (Results include the play-in game the last four years.)
America East 1-11 straight up; 3-9 vs. spread. This year: VERMONT (24-6)
Atlantic Sun/Trans-America 2-12 SU; 7-6-1 vs. spread. TY: CENTRAL FLA. (24-8)
Big Sky 2-11 SU; 7-5-1 vs. spread. This year: MONTANA (18-12)
Big South 1-9 SU; 4-6 vs. spread. This year: WINTHROP (27-5)
Metro-Atlantic 3-12 SU; 8-7 vs. spread. This year: NIAGARA (20-9)
Mid-Continent Conference 2-9 SU; 5-6 vs. spread. This year: OAKLAND (12-18)
MEAC 3-11 SU; 11-3 vs. spread. This year: DELAWARE STATE (19-13)
Northeast 0-11 SU; 5-6 vs. spread. This year: FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON (20-12)
Ohio Valley 0-11 SU; 5-6 vs. spread. This year: EASTERN KENTUCKY (22-8)
Patriot League 0-11 SU; 6-5 vs. spread. This year: BUCKNELL (22-9)
Southern Conference 2-11 SU; 8-5 vs. spread. This year: CHATTANOOGA (20-10)
Southland Conference 1-11 SU; 4-8 vs. spread. This year: SE LOUISIANA (24-8)
SWAC 0-11 SU; 6-5 vs. spread. This year: ALABAMA A&M (18-13)
