sunday ncaa tournament: round two ....

[gman2]

split on saturday. lost money though with more on cincy than milwaukee.

have seen a couple other uwm threads floating around. bottom line is that theyre absolutely legit. its unfortunate they had to deal with the stigma of playing in a down horizon league this year. but as ive told many friends -- to me, this is the best team ive ever seen in the short history of the horizon league. many might say thats not exactly high praise, since its the horizon were talking about. but there have been some damn good teams to come out of the league lately. butler has brought some solid teams to the dance over the last handful of years and has upset a handful of major programs. detroit was solid all through rashad phillips' career. but milwaukee is an atypical horizon team, and an atypical midmajor for that matter. theyve got a shitload of bigtime talent on that roster and (unfortunately) pearl wont be coaching many more seasons at milwaukee because someone is going to give him a job at a power-conference school. i think people get too caught up with the school name on the front of the jersey. if you went to an open gym and saw milwaukee's starting 5 playing shirts and skins against alabama and boston college, theres no way youd think that milwaukee is inferior. will milwaukee advance any further? of course not. illinols will handle them and end the panthers season. but theres no doubt that if there was no inherent bias in the poll voting, milwaukee would be a top 25 team. theres simply not 25 teams in the country better than uwm. theyre still overmatched by the illinois and carolinas of college basketball....but those wins vs. alabama and boston college were not 'upsets'. the media makes them out to be upsets, but milwaukee is every bit as good as both those teams in more than just a one-game setting. but enough uwm digression.

cincinnati just didnt get the job done. that game was lost in the opening 5:00 of each half. UC spotted kentucky 11 points to start the game and managed to come back by the half. but good teams win the first 5:00 out of halftime and cincy simply didnt do that. no regrets on the play. simply have to give credit to kentucky for making the plays and coming out with more intensity than uc in the opening minutes of each half.

as for sunday:

playing michigan state (-8) over vermont.

normally steer clear of tourney chalk, especially an 8-pointer, but think the odu game woke the spartans up and id be very surprised if they allow vermont to hang around. no doubt cbs would love to see the catamounts be this years cinderalla, especially with all the vermont subplots. but they played a tough and physical overtime game against syracuse and ill be very surprised if they match that intensity in the msu game. again i offer this caveat: im very high on michigan state and think they have the potential to get to the final four. so part of me thinks they can handle any team in the tournament. but i especially like this spot against vermont. subpar effort by msu in round 1. herculean effort by vermont in round 1. think both teams 'play the opposite way' on sunday.

nothing else on sunday is appealing so thats it for me

 

[Smitty]

Gman, thanks for the write-up. Agree 100% on UW Milwaukee. On Thursday, they were my biggest play ever on a hoops game. I matched it again yesterday. I can't remember the last time I saw a team want a game more than they wanted that win.
Also agree with you on Michigan St. today. Coppenrath will have a better game than he did on Friday, but Sorrentine will have a much tougher time of it. Although I'm sure they will still give him open looks from 40 feet. He can't keep hitting those LOL. Beating 'Cuse made Vermont's season; Michigan St. has loftier goals. My biggest concern with them going forward has been their most glaring weakness for 2 seasons now... lack of a true point guard. I think that will really hurt them, just not today.

 

[nchiappetta]

gman,

Just curious, how can you see Vermont not playing with the same intensity vs. MSU as they did against Syracuse (and going forward should they win today against MSU)?

I guess its always nice to assume a team will not be able to play they did two games in a row despite being a heavy dog, but how can one easily say a #13 seed that upset a power conference tournament champion in Syracuse (and one that was a definite possibility for the Final 4) will not play with the same intensity as they did two days ago? Just wanted to see your justification on why you wouldn't think they would come ready for this game.

 

[Smitty]

if i may throw in my 2 cents... i think vermont put everything they had into that game against syracuse. that game was their retirement gift to brennan. it is incredibly dificult for college kids to match that level of emotion just 2 days later. i'm sure going into that game that they had no goals other than to put everything into the first game and let the chips fall where they may. it is a bonus that they are still playing.

 

[vyrus858]

gl brother

 

[gman2]

nch:

smitty put it very succintly and really took the words out of my mouth. its not that i dont think vermont is capable of playing with the same intensity as they did friday. but its more about the way the game was won. very emotional, up and down game then went down to the final possession in regulation. then a tight overtime where it, again, was decided on the final shot. game was low scoring and physical. just think fatigue shows up the following game in the following game more often than not. plus i guess im just really sold on michigan state. think theyre a final four caliber team. didnt mean to imply that vermont would just show up and lose. theyre well-coached and have enough talent to compete. but given the round 1 game (and how msu played a subpar game), think the class will show up in the later stages of the game.

 

[Smitty]

close one, but they pulled it out. it's nice to have a team actually hit a couple free throws late in a game. i had michigan st. at wisky this year when they couldn't seal the deal from the line. not that i'm still bitter about that or anything LOL.

gman, keep up the great work.

 

[gman2]

thanks smitty.

fully expecting michigan state to take out duke in the next round. im not an anti-duke person, just really like the spartans to win that region. and btw - i had msu in that wisky game earlier this year. one of the truly ridiculous 'final minute folds' youll see.

 

[Smitty]

yeah, i don't know how many times i mumbled to my girlfriend that night... "the best free throw shooting team in the country... the best freakin' free throw shooting team in the country."

my head tells me you are probably right. michigan state can definitely d up on duke's backcourt. and if reddick doesn't start hitting some shots, duke won't be around much longer. however, i am applying the billy blastoff theory.... as i believe you alluded to in another thread, the line does seem a point or two high, so i gotta take duke. that could definitely be attributable to 'the duke effect'; it seems like they are always laying an extra point or two (except for the game AT carolina... that 7 or 8 points was the biggest gift i've ever seen). but i really think vegas is trying to get some michigan state action with that line. it'll be interesting to see which way it moves, if it moves at all.

anyways... i am counting on coach k to come up with a game plan to exploit michigan state's weaknesses... no true point guard and no real scoring threat from the post. they'll defend the mid-range jumper and drives to the hoop (williams had 5 blocks the first match-up) and frustrate the spartans. on offense, i really expect they'll work the ball inside to williams.

all that being said, the numbers from the first match-up this year scare me. reddick and ewing combined to hit 10 out of 16 3-pointers and scored 58 of duke's 81. if they can do that again, duke will win, but i don't see those numbers being repeated. and williams will REALLY need to improve on 4 of 11 for 10 points. wow, you'd have to be an idiot to back duke laying 4-5 points in this game. D'OH!

that's what is great about this forum. the chance to have these discussions. even if most of the discussion has been with myself. LOL. so to summarize... i'm not that bright, and will probably still take duke. meaning michigan state should be your lock of the decade.

quick side bar... i am definitely with you on oklahoma state. arizona will get pushed around all night. and ok st's biggest weakness (freshman point guard) should be offset, i hope, by lots of veterans around him, especially lucas.