Opening Lines sweet 16 and my early leans in bold

[pt1gard]

3:00 pm (CBS) NCAA Chicago Regional (Semifinals) @ Allstate Arena - Chicago, IL (Times TBA)
815 Wisc Milwaukee +450
816 Illinois -10 141? -600

3:00 pm (CBS) NCAA Chicago Regional (Semifinals) @ Allstate Arena - Chicago, IL (Times TBA)
817 Arizona -1 150? -115
818 Oklahoma State -105

3:00 pm (CBS) NCAA Albuquerque Regional Semifinals @ University Arena - Albuquerquem, NM (TBA)
819 Louisville -1? 159 -125
820 Washington +105

3:00 pm (CBS) NCAA Albuquerque Regional Semifinals @ University Arena - Albuquerquem, NM (TBA)
821 West Virginia +105
822 Texas Tech -1? 142? -125


Friday, March 25, 2005

3:00 pm (CBS) NCAA Syracuse Regional Semifinals @ Carrier Dome - Syracuse, NY (TBA)
869 NC State -2 125? -135
870 Wisconsin +115

3:00 pm (CBS) NCAA Syracuse Regional Semifinals @ Carrier Dome - Syracuse, NY (TBA)
871 Villanova +400
872 North Carolina -9 153? -500

3:00 pm (CBS) NCAA Austin Regional Semifinals @ Frank Erwin Center - Austin TX (TBA)
873 Utah +180
874 Kentucky -5 123 -220

3:00 pm (CBS) NCAA Austin Regional Semifinals @ Frank Erwin Center - Austin TX (TBA)
875 Michigan State +175
876 Duke -4? 141? -210


3 fave pix are, UWM, Nova, and over in UW-LOU

gl, gregg


please feel free to comment on any game--some are impossible like zona/okie st for me to cap ...

 

[Master Capper]

I like the vast majority of your plays except:

Zona

 

[soul train]

LIKE THAT WEST VIRGINIA PICK,TECH IS WEAK,LOL,WEST VIRGINIA PEAKING AT THE RIGHT TIME,SHOULD ROLL +1.5

 

[Scott4USC]

LIKE THAT WEST VIRGINIA PICK,TECH IS WEAK,LOL,WEST VIRGINIA PEAKING AT THE RIGHT TIME,SHOULD ROLL +1.5

I agree WV is hot team right now (so is TT) but aren't you worried they might be fatigued and emotionally drained? WV basically played there way out of NCAA bid, then played there way into a high NCAA bid. Winning 3 straight Big East Conf. Tourney games, then played and lost their 4th game in row against Syracuse. 4 games in 4 straight nights is tough.

Then they enter the NCAA tourney and play hard fought game against Creighton winning on a last second play. Then come back 2 nights later and upset #2 seed WF in DOUBLE OT.

WV has played 7 games in the last 15 days.
TT has played 5 games since March 11th.

 

[maverick2112]

Gregg.........give me your thoughts on Washington/Louie

Do you think playing Louisville may be a better match up for Washington than Gtech would have been????

 

[soul train]

I agree WV is hot team right now (so is TT) but aren't you worried they might be fatigued and emotionally drained? WV basically played there way out of NCAA bid, then played there way into a high NCAA bid. Winning 3 straight Big East Conf. Tourney games, then played and lost their 4th game in row against Syracuse. 4 games in 4 straight nights is tough.

Then they enter the NCAA tourney and play hard fought game against Creighton winning on a last second play. Then come back 2 nights later and upset #2 seed WF in DOUBLE OT.

WV has played 7 games in the last 15 days.
TT has played 5 games since March 11th.

SATURDAY-THRUSDAY ,5 DAYS REST SHOULD BE ENOUGH,CALL ME CRAZY,BUT I LOVE WEST VIRGINIA,I WOULD LAY POINTS IF I HAD TOO,GOOD LUCK

 

[Scott4USC]

FYI: Washington has beaten 3 teams in the Sweet 16 this year:

Arizona (twice)
NC ST.
Utah

Might want to lay some coin on UW beating Louisville.

:clap: :clap: :clap:

 

[maverick2112]

FYI: Washington has beaten 3 teams in the Sweet 16 this year:

Arizona (twice)
NC ST.
Utah

Might want to lay some coin on UW beating Louisville.

:clap: :clap: :clap:

Scott I have a future on Washington 1 unit to win 40........I think if they can get past Louisville they have a great shot ot advance to the final four which would open some great hedging opportunities for me.I can easily get the 1 unit I risked back now. I think with your futures setup you would be happy to see Louisville exit since they may be one team that could possibly beat both Illinois and North Carolina. Lets go Huskies.....

Do you like there matchup with Louisville???

 

[pt1gard]

mav,

this should be chariots of fire game, run and gun in spades--im guessing mascara rick will come out in same 2-3 he used vs Tech; he ran it vs Duke in Game of Century; uw has pygmy inside game, their best is jamal williams at 6'4 ...

after seeing Cards' incredible shooting, Im not sure ga tech woulda been better opponent for UW, I thought tech was back on track and that was wrong ... Rick's club labored vs ULL and then snapped back in convincing manner ...

I know UW is deep and in great shape and I know Pitinos teams are always in great shape, he makes them run treadmill at practice for messing up, so conditioning will not be a factor ... that all considered, the UW wont choke or be uptight IMO, they have gone thru a lot of serious scrums now, they will pressure and run and toss up treys and offensive rebound ... I will admit i am not super familiar with LOUIS. only really watched them a few times, I think making LOUIS a fave is again inviting public money on UW, which scares me ... ironic that UW higher seed is dog, but thats public perception and vet coach RP ... The UW, some might suggest, will use this as motivation, but thats all BS; if ur not ready now, pack your shit and go home ... this comes down to getting in a stance, contesting shots, pounding glass, creating and knocking down open looks, and chasing down 50/50 balls in the open court ...

extremely tuff call but I will side with UW, I know these kids very well, watched most for years in hs, they truly are gym rats and hard nosed competitors--they are not smartest team in world but they dont go away or fear any bully...

gl to all,
gregg

 

[Nickelback]

Agree. . . Washington is the play in this one. . . the Huskies are in great shape for the Final Four with Wake out of it

Arizona/OSU. . . flip a coin IMO! I think a lot will depend on the refs in the game. . . will they allow OSU to get away with their rough play or will they favor Arizona's quickness and call a lot of fouls (including cheap fouls)?

 

[3 Seconds]

Illinios will roll UWM in Chicago.

 

[Scott4USC]

Scott I have a future on Washington 1 unit to win 40........I think if they can get past Louisville they have a great shot ot advance to the final four which would open some great hedging opportunities for me.I can easily get the 1 unit I risked back now. I think with your futures setup you would be happy to see Louisville exit since they may be one team that could possibly beat both Illinois and North Carolina. Lets go Huskies.....

Do you like there matchup with Louisville???

Here are my quick thoughts on the game. I have had zero big bets in this tourney and just sitting back waiting/hoping for my futures to come in. I almost laid a bundle on Gonzaga! :scared But here is my quick take when handicapping this game.

The game is being played at high elevation. Washington is a deep team. Is Louisville? Here is some simple logic. Washington is deep and extremely fast team. Louisville hasn't faced a team as fast as UW except maybe UAB. Which leads me to my 2nd pt. UL struggled against UAB and got worn out. They are not a great conditioned team. Arizona just played UAB and beat them pretty good. Washington beat Arizona twice this season. Very simple logic that favors Washington. Since this game is being played at high elevation, that has to favor Washington. I also think UL will struggle guarding Robinson. He is small but very fast PG.

What favors UL? They just dominated G-Tech and I thought G-Tech was a dangerous team. I am more impressed with UL beating Tech vs UW beating Pacific. However, I think UW will take out Garcia like they did with that dude from pacific. Take out Garcia and make the others beat you. This UL team is over-rated IMO but you have no choice but to respect their dominant performance over G-Tech. I did not see that happening but I don't think they beat UW. What I mean over-rated are the people who think they are worthy of #1 and that UL could win it all. I don't see it.

As for my personal futures, I am not too afraid of either opponent against Illinois or UNC. Both don't have an answer to stop May from UNC and the whole UNC team outclasses both UW and UL. Illinois now has the emergence of Augustine down low in addition the trio of guards. Illinois plays smart basketball and neither UL or UW are on Illinois level. To be quite frank, I don't see Illinois or UNC losing and both meeting up in the championship game. In addition, both their brackets are setting up nicely.

I would hedge your "great" UW bet if they face Illinois. Bet 20units to win whatever units on ILL. UW has no answer to stop Augustine and the trio. NO TEAM has that answer.

 

[Nickelback]

Agree with Scott. . . UAB didn't bring anything to the table that Arizona hasn't seen already and they weren't nearly as quick as Washington. . . this made things very easy for Arizona.

Already posted this in another thread but Louisville doesn't strike me as a physical team and that's what is needed to take down Washington. The fact that the Cardinals appear to be willing to play the Huskies' pace is just icing on the cake

 

[Sun Tzu]

Ul got worn out v UAB? They won the game. And since it was a conference tourney game they had played the night before. Hardly indicative. And it is much different when conference foes face - they know each other far too well. Regardless, this isnt football - it is rather meaningless to compare one game to another. There are just too many variables. Example - Nova beats WVa by 40 then loses to them badly in Big East Tourney. Arizona seems to struggle v Washington - that doesnt mean AZ wont beat the crap out of some team Washington lost too. Washington lost badly to undermanned Stanford while UL routed them at full strength- does that mean UL beats Wash? Of course not. And so on.

 

[Scott4USC]

Sun Tzu I watched that game and Louisville was worn out. The press of UAB wore out Louisville. Playing back to back nights prob. had a lot to do with it, but UL was worn out. I don't think they are a "great" conditioned team.

Arizona handled UAB rather eaily and they only had 1 days rest.

ELEVATION + UW SPEED + UW DEPTH = Could have an impact on this game.

 

[pt1gard]

bad news for Nova

Sumpter Out for Tournament With Injured Left Knee
Mar 21, 5:52 PM (ET)

VILLANOVA, Pa. (AP) - Villanova forward Curtis Sumpter will miss the rest of the NCAA tournament after a MRI exam Monday revealed he has a torn ligament in his left knee.

Sumpter was hurt in Villanova's second-round win over Florida on Sunday, leaving the game after 12 minutes after scoring eight points and twice tumbling to the court and clutching his left knee. Sumpter, the team's second-leading scorer (15.3 points) and leading rebounder (7.2 rebounds) didn't play again, instead cheering his teammates on from the bench.

"When it happened, I knew something was wrong," Sumpter said. "I knew something felt a little funny. I thought I'd walk it off and I'd be fine."

Villanova beat the fourth-seeded Gators 76-65 and advanced to its first regional semifinal since 1988. The fifth-seeded Wildcats will play No. 1 seed North Carolina on Friday night in Syracuse.

Coach Jay Wright said Sumpter has a history of not telling trainers how bad he's hurt. The junior missed two games this season with a sprained right knee. "I knew when he didn't play it was serious," Wright said.

Sumpter, a second-team All-Big East selection, said the first time he went down against the Gators, he thought he had just tweaked his knee and wasn't really concerned about a serious injury. Sumpter said the second time, his knee just "gave out" and he knew he was finished for the tournament.

"I kind of knew it was something serious because I never felt like that before," Sumpter said.

Still, Sumpter predicted after the game he would return.

Sumpter's injury is a serious blow to the Wildcats, who are chasing their first national championship since 1985. Besides being Villanova's only legitimate presence in the post, Sumpter's versatile enough to swing out and play well from the perimeter, shooing 43 percent from 3-point range (39-for-90).

Without their 6-foot-7, 223-pound forward, the Wildcats will need more minutes and production from Marcus Austin and Chris Charles.

 

[pt1gard]

Irresistible forces vs. immovable objects

By Clark Kellogg, Yahoo! Sports
March 20, 2005




Up and down the Sweet 16, teams that have made it this far are those that have played their games.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee likes to speed you up, turn you over and make three-point shots. The Panthers scored 83 points against Boston College ? almost 20 points more than the Eagles normally allow ? on Saturday and advanced.

Villanova plays the same way. The Wildcats count on turnovers to create offense for themselves. On Sunday they humbled Florida (19 turnovers).

Texas Tech played to its strength, which is its perimeter guys, in wins over UCLA and Gonzaga.

Now it becomes tougher for teams to impose their will. The opponent you're faced with in the third round of the NCAA tournament likely is a notch above those you just beat. From here on out, the team in each matchup that continues to play its style will move forward.

My picks:

CHICAGO REGIONAL

(12) Wisconsin-Milwaukee vs. (1) Illinois - Thurs, 7:27 p.m. ET Preview
Wisconsin-Milwaukee's pressing-trapping style has had success to this point. But in this matchup, Illinois' perimeter guards ? Dee Brown, Deron Williams and Luther Head ? should be able to handle the pressure.

The Illini's defense also will keep the Panthers out of the style they like to play.
Pick: Illinois.

(3) Arizona vs. (2) Oklahoma St. - Thurs, 9:57 p.m. ET Preview OKSt
Terrific matchup here. Oklahoma State got to the Final Four last year and is very experienced. They have an undersized center, Ivan McFarlin, who can really do some damage in the paint.

I don't know if McFarlin will be able to deal with Channing Frye though; Arizona's pivot is 6-11, 248. And nobody outside maybe Duke (J.J. Redick) has a shooter quite like Salim Stoudamire. I like Arizona in this matchup simply because of the Wildcats' size up front and their athleticism at the other positions.
Pick: Arizona.


ALBUQUERQUE REGIONAL

(4) Louisville vs. (1) Washington - Thurs, 7:10 p.m. ET Preview Loui
Oh my. If both these teams play to the level they're capable of, this should be a fabulous game.

Neither team is very big, but both are athletic and keep constant pressure on the opposition with how they attack on offense and how they defend you.

Not that Louisville lacks these ingredients, but I like the Huskies because of their heart and their tenacity.
Pick: Washington.

(7) West Virginia vs. (6) Texas Tech - Thurs, 9:40 p.m. ET Preview WV
Not many people had these two teams meeting here. In Texas Tech you have a team with terrific perimeter scorers. Ronald Ross, Jarrius Jackson and Martin Zeno all are terrific off the dribble, good without the ball, and shoot the medium-range jumper. They keep constant pressure on the opposition.

West Virginia's ability to shoot the three-pointer and change up on defense are what make the Mountaineers difficult to handle. This is a terrific matchup, almost too close to call, but I'll lean toward the Cinderella.
Pick: West Virginia.


SYRACUSE REGIONAL

(10) North Carolina St. vs. (6) Wisconsin - Fri, 7:27 p.m. ET Preview NCSt Wis
Wisconsin is not as deliberate as people make them out to be. I look for this one to creep into the 70s, where the Badgers typically win.

That said, N.C. State's Julius Hodge has really raised his level of play. He might be the difference in this one.
Pick: N.C. State.

(5) Villanova vs. (1) North Carolina - Fri, 9:57 p.m. ET Preview Vill
Villanova has been able to get off to really good starts in its first two games and utilize its quickness to create havoc. The difference this time, however, is that North Carolina has the size, speed and perimeter shooting to handle everything Villanova will throw at the Heels.
Pick: North Carolina.

AUSTIN REGIONAL

(5) Michigan St. vs. (1) Duke - Fri, 7:10 p.m. ET Preview Duke
This is a rematch of an early-season meeting, which Duke won in Durham. I like Michigan State here however. The Spartans are an efficient offensive team. They're deep and athletic enough to really bother Duke on the perimeter.
Pick: Michigan State.

(6) Utah vs. (2) Kentucky - Fri, 9:40 p.m. ET Preview Utah Ky
I love Utah center Andrew Bogut; I've talked about him all year as a dominant player. But I didn't know if Utah had enough quality players around Bogut to advance to this point. Clearly, when they get contributions from Justin Hawkins (20 points vs. Oklahoma on Saturday), Marc Jackson (17) and Bryant Markson (16), they're a team capable of getting to St. Louis.

Kentucky is deep and athletic. But I think the Utes will be able to break through here, on the strength of Bogut.
Pick: Utah.

 

[Nickelback]

Did anyone realize that OSU only goes seven deep??? Seven deep in the Big 12 tournament and their first two Big Dance games. . . I never knew that! I want to see them last 40 minutes against Arizona going only seven deep. Big advantage for the Cats that I didn't catch until now.

 

[Sun Tzu]

I had no idea. Watching the conference all year and betting on and against these teams winning my ass off I never once even considered the depth of the teams. Heck i dont even know who the players are. Where is Oklahoma - is that a state?

 

[Nickelback]

Sun, it may have worked against teams in the Big 12 but sure as hell won't work against Arizona or Washington. . . I've seen OSU several times this year but I have to admit that I never caught on to their depth issue.

An undersized McFarlin will not last 40 minutes against Frye and Radenovich. . .