ncaa tournament: wednesday 23rd -- friday 25th ....

gman2

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wednesday nit:
davidson (+9.5)

thursday ncaa:
wisconsin-milwaukee (+10.5)

thursday ncaa:
oklahoma state (-1)

friday ncaa:
michigan state (+4.5)

tournament future:
michigan state to win ncaa tourney (+3500)

will write more on these later tonight when i get a bit of free time.
 

vyrus858

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Gman, we are liking much of the same...wanted to see what some of the more solid cappers would think about Davidson, but it seems as if the "maryland doesnt care about this tourney" theory is going to crap, because i realized one thing, alot of these players are playing themselves into the NBA draft...however, like Davidson too, as its obvious where the public money will be on...gl to us
 

vyrus858

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by the way, glad to see you on OSU...Love the Pac 10 and the cats, but man I really think this OSU club goes to the Final 4...gl bro
 

pt1gard

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gamn2, curious why u like okie st ... Im not touching that game b/c I am vacillating, could see it either way...

i almost took spartans 5/1 to win region, what do you think there?

like pearl's panthers and spartan bets you got in thread tho--gl, gregg
 

gman2

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wisconsin-milwaukee

its gonna take a minor miracle for uwm to win this game straight up, but the only reason this line is in double digits is because their jerseys say "milwaukee" as opposed to ncstate or west virginia or utah or texas tech. uwm is every bit as good as those schools but they still have to deal with the stigma of being a horizon league school. ive said it before and its worth repeating: wisconsin-milwaukee is an atypical horizon league team and an atypical midmajor program. theyre very similar to the kent state team that made an elite 8 run three years ago. both the '02 kent state team and the '05 milwaukee team shoot the ball well from 3pt range, play solid defense, are well-coached, and have upperclassmen who are calm under pressure.

if vermont or bucknell would have advanced to the sweet 16 round, both would have been grossly outclassed against their opponent. but milwaukee is not.

is illinois going to be a big time test for milwaukee? absolutely. will the illini have a few mismatches? perhaps. will illinois outclass milwaukee in this game? no way.

pearl has built a damn solid program in milwaukee and having been an assistant under tom davis, he has certainly molded this group into almost a big 10-type team. his guys really get after it and force you into a style that you dont want to play.

incidentally, all the talk is about how illinois hasnt forgotten about what pearl did to their program years ago when the whole deon thomas recruiting scandal took place.

but pearl didnt exactly 'win' in that situation. he had to start his career over in division II and build a championship program at that level and now at the midmajor division I level. he's on the brink of all but guaranteeing himself another shot at a big-time program in a power conference. and as far as the illini go, im sure the disdain and hatred is reciprocated. theres a good article i read on cbssportsline last evening about pearl and all the drama that went down years ago. if someone could find it, its worth posting (and reading)

bottom line is that milwaukee is not an 'overmatched cinderella'. theyre a solid basketball team that has some homegrown talent as well as some transfers (mccants and tucker) that make up a solid basketball team.

milwaukee wont be intimidated. theyre certainly not on illinois level, but that doesnt mean theyre gonna lay down for the illini. this should be a game that is decided by 5 or 7 points.
 

gman2

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michigan state

suffice to say im very high on michigan state. i like their chances to make it to the final four, and at 35/1 i had to take a shot on them to win it all. if they get by duke, they will face (in my opinion) a team much weaker than the devils. not trying to disrespect kentucky but i just dont see anything special about that team. and utah is good but michigan state would be one of the few teams that would have an answer for bogut and the spartans depth would wear down the utes.

but first msu has to get by duke and i think they will. devils took the early season meeting by 7, but on a neutral court i think michigan state is the better team. this one will match one of the deepest teams in the country (msu) against a duke team thats vulnerable once you get past their 6th man.

from a statistical perspective, michigan state is everything i like in an underdog. terrific free throw shooting team (77%). a good mix of youth and experience. a tourney-tested coach. and a good inside/outside game. duke has all those qualities too, but think michigan state is better in all areas except coaching (and its not like izzo is a slouch)

i just really like this team. i was really perplexed when they got rolled by illinois in east lansing a month ago. that game didnt make sense. i dont think wed see the same outcome if they met in the tourney. and i really think msu is being overlooked bigtime because all the hype and attention goes to illinois and north carolina. but the spartans are a 2nd tier team thats more than capable of getting to the final four if they play to their potential the next two games
 

LifeLongLoser

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gman, I also love Mich st, and agree on your reasoning. I took a small shot on them at 40-1 @sportsbook.com, little better odds, but hopefully we can both cash.
 

null

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Gman, I've been following your picks for a while and I'd like to thank you for taking the time to do your great write ups. I hope you'll be back next year.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee has been paying me back lately for that Youngstown St. debacle when I had them big. Anyway I thought you might like to know that you can get them +11.5 at bowmans.
 

Bankonit

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Thanks gman2!

Did you play all of these already? Are you waiting for any line movement? Any play that should be jumped on now that you feel will move by game day?

Always appreciate your input.

I think we see MSU +5.5 by Friday.

:clap: :clap: :clap:

~Bank~
 

BleedDodgerBlue

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GMAN

don't have the article that you are looking for but i posted this link a couple days ago. Granted its from a pro-illini site, but I think people that don't know anything about the situation can get an idea of what went down if they don't know

http://underscorebleach.net/content/jotsheet/2005/03/bruce_pearl_illinois_iowa_recruiting_scandal

to say pearl hasn't had to pay for what he did or that he isn't a good coach is an injustice. But it's also fair to say Illinois administration hasn't forgotten either. I said earlier Illinois and Bruce Weber don't run the score up on anyone, but it does just happen that they beat some teams by a lot of points. This team does what it takes to win and has so all year. I won't disrespect UWM, but I think it a little much for them to get a W on thursday. They definitely can keep it within the number, but I'm on the other side on this one. I got 9.5 on Sunday and really like Illinois to try and rub salt into this one. Whether they can or not only time will tell. I respect your opinion a lot, just on the other side on this one.

As for Ok St., games a toss up for me, but hope you win. Either AZ or OK St. will be the first real test Illinois has had in a long time if they get by UWM.

Really do like Michigan St. though. Hopefully we can find a 5 before gametime.

Good luck with your plays.
 

Bankonit

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gman2,

David +10

FYI:
MARYLAND - G John Gilchrist (ankle) downgraded from probable to doubtful.
The Sun reports -Williams said yesterday that Gilchrist (13.9 PPG 5.5 APG)
probably won't play because of ankle and wrist injuries.


I also like under 154.5.

Any thoughts?

~Bank~
 

Hokie Fan

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As a Boston College Alum (Hokie Fan?? long story)
I was sad to see BC lose but the better team, I believe, won.As for Pearl, the man has paid his pentance and hard work has him back near the top.

G man great write up

I like UWM alot this week
 

gman2

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prop bet
most points scored: joah tucker vs. deron williams

joah tucker (-2) (-110)

theres not a whole lot of guys left in the tournament that are playing better than tucker right now. he's on top of his game and scoring in all different ways. he's averaging 22.5 ppg in the postseason (horizon tourney and ncaa tourney) and hes doing a great job of getting to the line. while mccants gets all the hype for milwaukee (and for good reason, as he's a terrific shooter who has nine 3s in two tourney games), milwaukee wouldnt be where they are without tucker.

williams has been very passive in the two tourney games so far. he nearly has as many assists as he does shot attempts (16 assists vs. 18 shot attempts)

think tucker goes for 19 or 20 and expecting 13 or 14 from williams
 

gman2

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Fabulous said:
Tucker better strap it on and play out of his mind to score 20 against Illinois' defense!

theres a good chance uw-milwaukee will be forfeiting before the game out of fear of the illini, so we might not even get to see the game played. hoping my prop bet gets refunded upon forfeit.
 

Sports Psychic

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Tucker can't be stopped once down low and he is a tough matchup for anyone because he can score from the outside is very strong down in the paint and is quckerthan anyone who guards him. Lets hope refs let him play.
 
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