KENTUCKY - BIG - Reason

[DIRTY Diapers]

Kentucky -4

Bogut is a beast - But I don?t think the Wildcats are getting enough credit. I like the match up between R. Morris and Bogut. In my opinion, Randolph Morris will neutralize Bogut and Kentucky will win comfortably. There is just too much athleticism on the side of the Kentucky Wildcats. Look for the press to simply wear this team out.

NC State -2

Hodge is simply on a mission. Wisconsin has NOBODY who can match up with Hodge. This came will obviously be close - because these teams can?t blow anyone out. With that said, I simply like Hodge to take over the end of the game like he did against UCONN. If Rudy Gay (future NBA Lottery pick) can?t stop Hodge, who on Wisky can?

PRO Basketball

Miami -3 (-150) VS. Phoenix

I love this game the most. I bought the two points. Simply this game is setting up for a big play due to the following: Phoenix is playing their fourth road game in five days. Phoenix blasted Miami the first time they played in Phoenix (Payback!). Miami just lost a heart breaker in Houston. These two teams are vying for home court advantage. Miami at home on a Friday night - the beer will be flowing and the crowd will be rocking... I love Miami. Holla.

 

[Bombs]

Wisky plays team defense, Bo Ryan will certainly have a plan for Hodge. You don't win basketball games with one player. This as even as a matchup gets.

 

[DIRTY Diapers]

You don't win basketball games with one player... LOL. Obviously, you didnt watch the UConn/NC State game. Hodge won that game. He simply controlled the last five minutes. Everybody plays team defense against talented players. Uconn has more talented players than Wisconsin and they still couldnt stop Hodge.

 

[MIPS]

Evtimov hit some clutch shots and Brackman stepped up as well. Hodge is good but it wasnt just him. Wisky plays a style of ball that can frustrate NC State. They play tight D and get up on 3 pt shooters.. it will be an interesting game to say the least...

 

[mack the knife]

NCSU is in a bad spot, maybe. Teams that win upsets twice in a row in the tourney are go againsts in the next round--especially as favs. Since they were actually favored over the better seeded charlotte team, I don't know if that qualifies as an upset. But they beat a better seeded team twice. See what happened to wiscy-milwaukee last nite? bad spot. these are two even teams, and maybe wisky has a team edge, plus the bad spot for state and this is a watch and enjoy game for me, even though I bleed wolfpack red.

 

[DIRTY Diapers]

I wouldnt consider NC State beating Wisconsin an upset. In fact, in terms of talent NC State is better. Remember, NC State preseason was rated eighth in the nation. I think this game will be close - but NC state will pull out a close one.

 

[mack the knife]

you missed the point.

State has ALREADY had two upsets in the tourney. Thus, they are in a bad spot. These kinds of teams don't normally win a third game; they often get blown out. BTW: notice that the sharp posters here have wisky on the moneyline? Stay away seems to to be the right call, or wisky. Good luck.

 

[HoopsGuru]

they didn't upset charlotte, they were 4.5 pt favorites, seedings mean nothing. you can't compare this game to wisc mil playing the #1 team in the country, a tad different. its one game and neither team has much of an advantage over the other team. nc st is not in a bad spot.

 

[mack the knife]

AS I said in my first reply in this thread (you might not have read it, hoops), the angle is based on 2 "upsets" in the tourney. I don't know the concept was defined. A reasonable assumption is that an upset is defined as the worse seeded team winning two in a row. Another assumption is that an upset is based on the spread dog winning outright twice in a row. As I clearly pointed out, State was favored in the charlotte game, so I was not positive if the angle applied. If it does apply, state is in a bad spot. If it doesn't apply, then, well, whatever.

AND YES IT CAN BE COMPARED to wisc-mlw IF the angle is based on worse-seeds. Both would be worse seeded teams winning two games outright. Pretty simple. You don't have to listen, but you are not correct that they can't be compared. You might want to only look at teams not playing #1 seeds, that's your call, but the anlge is not selective and it works.

gl

 

[gman2]

PRO Basketball

Miami -3 (-150) VS. Phoenix

I love this game the most. I bought the two points

isnt this that a little paradoxical? you 'love' miami, yet youre buying points? if you have to buy points, id say you arent as confident in miami as you think.

 

[doochuk]

isnt this that a little paradoxical? you 'love' miami, yet youre buying points? if you have to buy points, id say you arent as confident in miami as you think.

i agree Gman....make's no sense whatsoever......

 

[DIRTY Diapers]

How does that not make sense - - I love Miami... Phoenix is a good team that is capable of pulling an upset on the road. I believe Miami will win a close one at home... There is always a chance of a backdoor cover, especially with basketball... Missed free throws, meaningless three pointer. I like Miami at home -3 more than I like -5. If you don't understand the reasoning DONT follow my lead.

 

[doochuk]

How does that not make sense - - I love Miami... Phoenix is a good team that is capable of pulling an upset on the road. I believe Miami will win a close one at home... There is always a chance of a backdoor cover, especially with basketball... Missed free throws, meaningless three pointer. I like Miami at home -3 more than I like -5. If you don't understand the reasoning DONT follow my lead.

You love Miami -3 but not -5 so you think it is gonna be a tight game right? you say you believe Miami will win a close one at home and you bought the the 2 pts cuz you are worried about the backdoor cover so would you like Phoenix equally as much if you made them +7?...just trying to understand your reasoning no offense meant in any way shape or form...good luck

 

[DIRTY Diapers]

I think there is a better possibility of Miami blowing Phoenix out than Phoenix covering seven points... Nothing is certain with gambling, but I feel more comfortable with Miami at -3 than -5. Especially when I'm throwing a grand on it.

No offense was taken - just trying to explain my reasoning to all of this madness.

 

[DIRTY Diapers]

.....

 

[mack the knife]

in the long run, buying that many points at 10 cents a pop is gonna drain you. There are times where it is worth buying (obviously, when the points are worth, literally, more than the buying price of 10 cents). Last nite was not one of them, and that's not because of retrospective judgment. The posters here were trying to tell you something useful. take the advice. and pay attention to the sharper posters' plays: almost all were on wisky. You don't have to follow them, but that many of them on wisky should have been a warning sign.

congrats on a 2-1 nite. sorry about state.

MACK