AFL: Round 2

[bombercoops]

Still waiting on lines at my book but looking at the blues, saints, and geelong considering their solid form in the west in recent years. Your roos would have to be some kind of chance this week also pawa. May have to fly down especially for rich/hawks game as it has the makings of an all time classic! Anyone else keen? Black, where have you been pards?
Record: 0-1

 

[MrChristo]

Wow. What are the chances? I think we posted at exactly the same time, bomber.

 

[bombercoops]

Good minds think alike christo! Give me the blues -8.5 and the saints -9.5. Locking both of them in early and will wait on the others. Blues inside 39 is also worth looking at IMO.

 

[bombercoops]

Just read your thread christo and it appears that we are thinking along the same lines for the most part. Hopefully that's a good thing. Cats and roos games look okay but struggling to pull the trigger on either as I like taking fav's. I think you pretty much hit the head on all the games this week but I feel good about the blues and sainters (never thought I would have said that 2 years ago). Pawa, cartman- what are you guys thinking this week?

 

[jpblack34]

Coops, I'm down for a Richmond game whenever pards. Laying low right now but just wanted to wish everyone good luck in the early stages. I'll be taggin along as soon as PAWA gets the express tuned up. JP

 

[jpblack34]

Get on MSN when you get a chance Coops, have a ???

 

[PAWAQATSI]

A tough bunch of games in this second week. Not sold on my Roos beating Sydney up in Canberra. (I've actually taken Sydney in my footyquad 1-36)

I do like Carlton to bounce back against the Bombers and cover the spread. Probably my only small play just to keep me interested!!

Concentrating more on NRL and Formula 1 this weekend as I have continued my good run with both.

Will get serious with AFL next week as the Express rolls out of the garage for the first time in '05. Looked mighty fine today when I pulled the covers off her. All that chrome glistening in the afternoon sun!!

Almost time to crank her over. :brows:

 

[bombercoops]

"All that chrome glistening in the afternoon sun". You make it sound like you just knocked the hair off a gold coast blonde! I sense your excitement paw. Can't wait for the old girl to make an appearance next week after the remodeling in the off season.

 

[Cartman88]

Looking to bounce back after a very disappointing Round 1.

No play on the Fri night game ? have a slight lean to Essendon with the inclusion of Lovett-Murray/Zantuck/Rioli - I think Livingstone will be a big loss for Carlton.

Melbourne should really dominate over the Wstn Bulldogs this week ? and the short 5 day break will not help the Wstn Bulldogs ? slightly disappointed with the line but will take them at -19.5

Keen on the Kangaroos +13.5 in Canberra ? not totally confident they will win but think they will at least keep it close ? was reading that in the last 4 contests between the Kangaroos and Sydney it has been won by the underdog ? so hope that trend carries on.

Staying clear of the West Coast vs Geelong game ? gut feeling is that West Coast might put up a big performance ? but Geelong have been ok in the west in recent times and every time I bet on a Geelong game the result goes the wrong way.

Port vs Brisbane will be a great match to watch but hard to line up from a betting perspective ? if Brisbane get out to +8.5 or +9.5 then I will probably jump on.

Would be all over St Kilda -9.5 if playing indoors but they are down in Launceston ? expect this game to be won in the midfield and I am still leaning towards a play on St Kilda -9.5 ? but will wait until the weekend to make a decision on this.

Agree with Christo on Richmond vs Hawthorn ? no way this should be a $1.65 vs $2.25 matchup ? have to tempted by Hawthorn but they were absolutely awful last week and I am not sure I can take them even with the points start ? will have another look nearer game time.

Collingwood vs Adelaide too close to call and the line looks right.

So just 2 plays at this stage but will most likely add to these on the weekend:

Melbourne -19.5 vs Wstn Bulldogs (2 units)
Kangaroos +13.5 vs Sydney

 

[beast2]

Last Week 1-2

Pawa, its good to see the Express back in action. Thought it may have gone into permanent retirement after last year despite all the good years of service.

Round 2 Plays
Carlton -8.5 d Essendon (2 Unit Play)
Jumping on Carlton for a second week after they let me down last week. Everything tells me Essendon are going to struggle this year while Carlton look like big improvers despite last week.

Adelaide d Collingwood (2 Unit Play)
Seeing both team play last week I can not understand the line on this one. I expect Adelaide to win easily having seen both teams play.

Other Games
Kangaroos - Swans
Tough game to pick so will avoid.

Melbourne - Bulldogs
Expect Melbourne to win but Bulldogs looked OK and there might be a let down for Melbourne after the emotion of last week.

Port - Brisbane
Impossible to pick with the changes to both sides.

West Coast - Geelong
First Impression was to jump on West Coast but after looking at Geelong record against West Coast in perth I decided to give it a miss.

St Kilda - Fremantle
Not sure how St Kilda will fair without Reidwoldt and Fremantle looked good against Port.

Richmond - Hawthorn
Any one who puts money on this game is crazy. How bad are Hawthorn if a team who has lost 15 in a row starts favourite?

Craig

 

[MrChristo]

Freo +11.5

Fremantle impressed me last week...I know Port were under-done, but by getting Carr into the mix, once again players like Headland and Matthew Carr are getting the 4th and 5th best opposition midfielder.
Also Pavlich staying at CHF is a very good move.
Saints now have lost 13 of last 15 outside! The only bonus for them here is that they are 2-2 here at Launceston and Freo are 0-3...but 2 of those losses were by 9 and 10 points.
Also, the weather here in Launceston is will be much warmer than the games Freo usually play here later in the season, forecast for 23. (It's about 27 today, and the sun still has some sting in it.)

Freo lost to the Saints by 29 last season @ the dome, which was a good effort considering!...Riewoldt had 25 possies, 14 marks and 2 goals in that game aswell.

Fremantle seem a realistic chance to win this game, and 11 points might be a fair bit in what should be a low scoring game.

 

[beast2]

****** Unbelivable!!!!

Gave up on Carlton in the third when trailing by 20+ and then turned it back on in the last to hear Carlton going in front and then leading by 10. As was always going to happen Carlton concede a goal with 90 seconds to go and therefore did not cover thus costing me my two unit play. Why coudn't Carlton play like that earlier in the match?

I am still swearing as I type this.

Hopefully I can get Adelaide can get over the line so the weekend is not a total disaster.

Craig

 

[PAWAQATSI]

I had given up on em too Beasty, at the same point. Though, I was hoping for the now ever reliable "last quarter fade out" that Essendon are becoming famous for. (Remind you of any particular match Coops??!! :mj07: ) My "greed valve" got the better of me and I ended up taking the Blues Under 39.5 so I lucked this one!

As for the Express....despite last years sub-par results, I just can't stay angry at the ol' girl. I'm hoping it was just a trough in the respectable long term graph. I simply paid the price for hitting it so hard last season. Sanity will prevail next week when she pulls out of the station. It's had some mods added which should help.

 

[bombercoops]

Thanks for reminding me paw but you can bet that I hadn't forgotten! I can't believe that the dons lost the game from where they were, and to top it off, covered the spread. Not happy! As a result of that, buying back my saints -9.5 and taking them inside 39 instead. Hopefully we can find a middle here christo!
Record: 0-2

 

[Cartman88]

Melbourne and Kangaroos both cover but Melbourne gave me a heart attack - 56 points in front mid way thru the 2nd quarter and let the Wstn Bulldogs get within 12 points near the end of the match - a couple of late goals made the winning margin 26 points.

Have decided to back the West Coast after a closer look at that matchup (despite my miserable record betting against Geelong).

West Coast -13.5 for 1 unit

Going to stay clear of the Port Adelaide vs Brisbane game - and just cheer on the Brisbane boys to get some pay back from last years Grand Final defeat.

Still crunching some numbers on tomorrows game - think the lines are fairly accurate but might have one more play to add.

 

[MrChristo]

Never work with kids, animals or weathermen.....

It's belting down here in Launceston @ 8.30 am. Doesn't look like letting up, with loads of cloud about. Not cold, but wet and windy.

Radar showing plenty of rain in Melbourne too, which is annoying 'cause Richmond/Hawks over 188 was an absolute steal!

Anyway....Taken Hawthorn @ 2.30 for all the reasons I said in the other thread.
Not sure how a bit of rain will affect either team tbh, but it was wet and slippery when the Hawks beat Richmond last year, so that can't be a bad thing.

Good luck today guys.

 

[MrChristo]

The weather here is getting worse!!

1.4 units on under 155.5 (2.35)
.6 units on 156-175 (3.90) as a saver.

 

[Cartman88]

Thanks for the weather update Christo - I was still considering a play on St Kilda but it is starting to look like it might a tight and low scoring game - so will leave this game alone - good luck with the under play.

Collingwood vs Adelaide I think there is reason to back both teams and also reason to bet against both teams - looks like an absolute toss up and would only consider betting if one team gets out to $2.10 (which I don't think will happen).

I have no confidence backing Hawthorn but the points are just too tempting in another game that could go either way - so will add a play on them.

Hawthorn +8.5 vs Richmond for 1 unit

 

[bombercoops]

Nice effort by your roos yesterday paw! The dogs showed some grit late in their game also christo which is promising. Put the saints in earlier in the week so will stick em' out. GL to you guys on the hawks, but at the same time, I hope they run themselves in to the ground physically so my dons can get a win on the board next week!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Yeah...f**ken great effort by my Roos!!

They were the one leg of my Footyquad that I missed. :cursin:

Always hurts more when it's your team that costs you. Hopefully it won't pay that much.