MLB Sat, Apr 2, 2005
MLB betting tips for April
Bryan Leonard
Major League Baseball's regular season bats start cracking Sunday and if there's one thing you can expect with April baseball, it is the unexpected.
Remember that betting lines in baseball are based almost exclusively on the starting pitcher. The general public takes the favorites and the big-name pitchers, which means you?re laying significant juice. However, I would advise against this.
I turn a consistent profit betting baseball and I lean toward underdogs. Betting ace pitchers in April means the betting line is based on last year?s statistics, but understand that this isn?t last season. This is a brand new season. A guy who was an ace last season might not find wins as easily as last year for various reasons.
Two years ago Curt Schilling didn?t get many wins with the Arizona Diamondbacks . He didn?t pitch badly, but failed to get significant run support and suffered an appendectomy in mid-season, which curtailed much of his innings. Yet, if you wagered on Schilling that season more than once, you invariably lost your shirt.
Injuries and poor run support can turn an ace pitcher into a sub-.500 money drain. Look at Randy Johnson?s stats from last season ? they were sensational, with the exception of wins. Poor run support made the Big Unit more profitable to fade.
It?s even more unpredictable in April, because so many unexpected things are going to happen. We witnessed the surprising Los Angeles Angels and Florida Marlins come out of nowhere as significant dogs to win the World Series in recent years.
Then there are the underdog pitchers. Take a guy like Jaret Wright for example. Washed up a year ago, Wright proceeded to have a terrific year with the Atlanta Braves, which got him a big contract with the Yankees. But will Wright be as good?
First, he doesn?t throw hard and he?s moving to the American League after pitching 2004 in the NL and in a big, pitcher-friendly park like Atlanta. His surroundings are very different this season. Secondly, he was under the tutelage of brilliant Braves? pitching coach Leo Mazzone, who works wonders with so many seemingly ?washed up? pitchers.
Look at the numbers reliever Chris Hammond put up in his one year with the Braves a few years ago, then look at what he?s done since. It?s an enormous difference. Keep an eye on a guy like Wright, especially with the pressure of pitching for the Yankees with the spotlight on him. He may be a good go-against in April.
In addition, some pitchers have career years or are simply ?one-year wonders.? Yet, the betting line on them in April is going to be based largely on what they did last season. Paul Wilson was a journeyman hurler until he had a strong season with the Reds last year. Has this guy learned how to pitch? Or will he be a one-year wonder too?
Be very careful of betting favorites, especially early in the season. And don?t be afraid to take a shot with dogs ? you can earn a nice profit with a winning percentage below .500 with live dogs that matc- up well in baseball, especially this time of the year. Good luck, and bet smart.
