FRIDAY BASES

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Chicago Cubs 'ML' -138

Carlos Zambrano is pitching for the Cubs today and is coming off a very strong performance that saw him allow one hit over 7 1/3 innings while striking out six. Zambrano demolished the Pirates last season going 5-0 with a 1.02 ERA. Apart from a bad game in 2003, Zambrano has allowed only 3 ER's in Pittsburgh over 27.1 innings of work. The Pirates are hideous this season and hitting only .241 on the year. The Cubs won six of nine games played here last season and this low line is a gift. The only concern in this one would be the fact that several Pirates batters have been succesful against Zambrano but i'm not too worried. Should this come down to the bullpens, the Cubs pen has a combined ERA of only 3.04 this season while the Pirates have an ERA of 6.17.

Oliver Perez gets the ball for the Pirates in this one and although he is their ace, Perez is off to another horrible start. After two starts, Perez has an ERA of 11.00 which is definitely the result of not pitching in the Spring due to a shoulder injury. Perez has lost three of his four starts as a Pirate against the Cubs allowing 12 ER's. The Pirates are now 0-3 in Game 1 of a series this season and have only won three games all season. The Cubs are hitting a decent .400 (minimal stats) versus lefties on the road this season and they should take advantage of Perez who has yet to reach season form. The Cubs average 5.40 runs per game versus lefties this season which should be good enough for the win.

Florida Marlins 'ML' -165

Josh Beckett, nuff said. I could end the writeup right there but let me babble a little bit more about this one. Josh Beckett is a dominant pitcher and dominate the Mets at Shea he has done. His last two outings at Shea have seen him go 2-0 with zero ER's and allowing only 10 hits over 15 innings pitched. Beckett has not lost a road game since last July and he is definitely the front-runner for the Cy Young award as of right now. If you combined all cureent NY Mets batters, they are batting only .190 lifetime versus Beckett. The Marlins have won six straight games at Shea Stadium and 10 of their last 11 overall against the Mets. The Florida bullpen has been very solid combining for an ERA of only 1.65 in 27.1 innings of work.

Aaron Heilman goes to the mound for the Mets and can you say disaster? Heilman is a complete joke. The Mets have won only two of his last 10 starts and he allowed 5 ER's to the Braves on Saturday. Heilman has pitched against the Marlins twice in his career and the Mets have lost both times. The Mets are coming off a sweep of the Houston Astros but that was a team who couldn't hit the ball. The Marlins have been smacking the ball around nicely and have all the weapons to hit Heilman early. The hangover will be too much for the Mutts to handle and the Marlins win this one by a few runs.

 

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Boston Red Sox 'RL' -1.5 +110 -118

Hideo Nomo takes to the mound for the DRays tonight and let me tell you can toss out his career numbers versus the Sox because this is the Nomo of 2004 and after. In his only start after 2003 versus the Red Sox, Nomo lasted only 3.1 innings allowing 4 ER's. Both his career losses to the Sox have come by large margins. In his last 10 starts of 2004, Nomo's team lost seven of those starts and all but one were by 2+ runs. Renteria, Damon, Nixon and Payton are all batting .300 or better lifetime versus Nomo. The Japanese superstar just doesn't have it anymmore and his bullpen isn't much better.

David Wells is off to a classic horrid David Wells start to the season. He allowed 10 ER's in his first two games and is caught in a slump. However, Boomer is making his first appearance at home in a Sox jersey and the thrives for situations like this. In his last 10 starts versus the DRays, Boomer's teams are 9-1. Of those nine wins, seven of them have come by 2+ runs. He is 8-1 lifetime versus the Rays with an ERA of only 2.73. Wells should reach the 100 pitch plateau in this one and the bullpen will takeover from there. Sure Tampa has hit well against Lefties but all of those AB's were in the nice confines of their home. The teams met 10 times at Fenway last season with the Red Sox going 8-2. All eight of those wins at Fenway were by 2 or more runs.

 

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Detroit-Kansas City 'Over' 10

Wilfredo Ledezma takes to the mound for the Tigers and although the young lefty is coming off a strong outing, he is up against a Kansas City team hitting .381 versus lefties this season. Not only that, the Royals have posted a .348 batting average against him in his short career. Four of his last five away starts have gone OVER. Both his starts against the Royals have had 10 or more runs scored. The Royals have shown on several occasions that they can score quite a few runs.

Jose Lima is possibly the new KING OF OVERS. Lima no longer belongs in the bigs and carries a 10.80 ERA after only two starts. He is 2-2 lifetime versus the Tigers with a 5.68 ERA. Current KC hitters are a combined 22 for 60 (.367)lifetime versus Lima with Lima striking out only four of those batters. The Tigers can really swing the bat this season with the potential to score 10+ runs on a nightly basis. Both bullpens in this game have been shaky at times and I fully expect this to be a shootout.



Good Luck to all!