Progression betting with underdogs!

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inside edge

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Apr 17, 2001
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Yesterday Our second best dog of the day won with the mets so we start over
back to win our original target:
Todays second best dog is Astros +125
Bet enough to win your original lets say $100

Yesterday our best dog lost with the B-jays so
we have to bet enough to win what we lost on that plus our target amt. if you were targetting $100 you probably lost $84 so you must bet enough to win $184 on the top dog of the day

W-sox +100
I got it at even Money at Guardian

GL,
IE
 
M

Mephisto

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Apr 13, 2005
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Getting my kicks on Route 666
I have some questions.

1)how do you determine a "top dog" and "2nd top dog"? Is it totally subjective? So if you and I play this same system, you might be playing different teams than I?

2)In your first post on this Tor was the top dog. When they lost, you played them again as the top dog. Was that a coincidence that it was Tor both times?

3)Is the betting scheme completely the same for both the top dog and 2nd top dog? it appears to be to me.

4)What happens if your top dog (or second top dog, either one) loses twice in a row, or three or more times. You just keep betting your cumulative loss plus the target amount, or do your stop after a predetermined amount?

Here's an example that I worked out.....Let's say your target rate is $100 which is 1/30th your bankroll as you suggested in your first post. If you bet and lost say $90, then the 2nd bet at +125 (just pulling numbers out of my ass) would be $90 + $80 or $170. If you lose again, (and assuming the top dog is again +125) do you then bet $170 + $80 or $250? If you lose all three bets, you'd be down a cumulative $510 or 17% of your bankroll in three days. Lose a fourth game in a row (again assuming +125 to keep the math easy), would be $250 + $80 or $330, and you're down $840 or 28% of your bankroll after only four games?

There may be some additional information you haven't layed out yet that would obviate the above scenario. Thanks for your response.

Mephisto
 
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nchiappetta

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Jan 22, 2005
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I would also be interested in the replies to these questions. I am not getting this whole strategy or how it works.

Is it basically betting a dog until it wins? (ie: doubling the bet until you are back to 0?)

Thanks.
 
U

Ummagumma

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Mar 24, 2005
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All it is is Money Management, and it can be applied to any system you choose.

For example the Homestand System. Play on a team starting a 5+ game Homestand. Double up on your bets till they win.

In short, its a way of making money even by having a below-average win percent. It takes discipline, which alot of bettors don't have.

The Dog System works in a way that you'll be laying substantially less of your bankroll down the line, but you have to be sharper with your picks.
 
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Mephisto

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Getting my kicks on Route 666
While my example earlier illustrates a nice point, I did make a small error in the numbers, Already edited once so I'll just leave the error, but suffice it to say it's actually a higher bankroll drawdown than I reported, anybody can run the numbers for themselves if they want.

Most everyone realizes that it's very easy to lose five games in a row. But unless your starting bet is for peanuts (and who the hell wants peanuts); lose 5 games in a row (or more) in martingale-like fashion and your bankroll will be taking a big hit, no doubt.

Mephisto
 
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