pride saturday night

[gardenweasel]

one play....parlayed silva and ricardo arona laying 1.5 to get a little over 1 in return......

it`s not exactly a bold move,but,some think lister has a very live chance vs arona.....i`ve seen arona a few times and he`s a very strong guy.........if i can find odds on who wins the tourney,i`d think a very small play on arona would be worth a longshot wager...

i am a fan of igor vovchanchyn....the guy usually fights the heavy`s....he is a brutal striker....at 205,he could be a tough nut to crack....

arona and vovchanchyn are large dogs to win the tourney...probably not smart wagers..just saying,they impress me...

i`d be surprised if silva wets the bed after the disputed hunt loss...

i have to be honest...this card is a very tough one to handicap,imo.....some very competitive bouts....

well worth watching...worth paying for....with elder/diaz off the ppv,i`d honestly rather watch pride....even though it`s still not a horrible ppv....cintron/margarito could be a classic...and the shane mosley bout has me curious...

like the parlay..


g.l.

 

[skillrules]

I wish Pinnacle could conjure up enough guts to set a line for Pride. This is as long as they have waited since they started posting lines for Pride events. It starts at around 2am Saturday in the USA, so we are literally inside 72 hours.

I have a few fights Im leaning toward, but before I bet with MVP, I want to compare numbers with my Pinn account, since the vig is so much less on MMA.

Since I have been looking at MVP, the lines have remained fairly stagnant.

Weasel, can you post the lines from 5dimes, I gave a cursory look and am not a member....didnt see where the lines are

 

[skillrules]

Dear Pinnacle Sports Client,

Our Linesmen Department has confirmed that the lines requested will be added tomorrow.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Lines at 5dimes...


Apr-23 801 VANDERLEI SILVA (PRIDE) -385
3:00 AM 802 HIDEHIKO YOSHIDA (PRIDE) +295


Apr-23 803 ROGERIO MINOTORO NOGUEIRA (PRIDE) -115
3:00 AM 804 DAN HENDERSON (PRIDE) -115


Apr-23 805 YUKI KONDO (PRIDE) +250
3:00 AM 806 IGOR VOVCHANCHYN (PRIDE) -325


Apr-23 807 QUINTON JACKSON (PRIDE) -145
3:00 AM 808 MAURICIO SHOGUN RUA (PRIDE) +115


Apr-23 809 KEVIN RANDLEMAN (PRIDE) +130
3:00 AM 810 KAZUHIRO NAKAMURA (PRIDE) -160


Apr-23 811 KAZUSHI SAKURABA (PRIDE) -610
3:00 AM 812 YOON DON SIK (PRIDE) +425


Apr-23 813 VITOR BELFORT (PRIDE) -125
3:00 AM 814 ALISTER OVEREEM (PRIDE) -105


Apr-23 815 RICARDO ARONA (PRIDE) -285
3:00 AM 816 DEAN LISTER (PRIDE) +225


Pride Fighting Championships - Saitama, Japan
Jun-26 851 MIRKO CRO COP FILIPOVIC (PRIDE) +180
3:00 AM 852 FEDOR EMANLIANENKO (PRIDE) -240

 

[gardenweasel]

line move on belfort/overeem...was -110 or -115 each depending where you shopped....some belfort money must have trickled in....

i have to say that there are quite a few bouts here that,imo,could swing either way...

including the ones i played....i`ve read that some people think silva can lose...as well as arona....

if you are a mma devotee,this is a must see card....

one of the best,most competitive cards i can recall...

this tournament is stacked...

i`m seeing some love for hendo as i peruse some sites...

with the ultimate fighter show and the ufc/pride shows following back to back,i have to think mma interest is going to "spike"(lol)....

looking forward to your opinions,skill....

 

[skillrules]

Thanks Boxlocks, pretty similar to MVP.

So Pinnacle came out and the one I was looking for was Lister who is +220 to Arona's -300 at MVP, but its Lister +270 to Arona's -300 at Pinnacle

Dean Lister 2units +270 - All Im looking for here is that moment in the fight when it could go either way and am happy with anything over +200 for Dean. He will have a height and reach and most likely a weight advantage against Arona. They are also paired up in the ADCC superfight later this year in So. Cal. Dean has been a BJJ legend in So. Cal for a long time and his 2003 ADCC Absolute Championship solidified his spot among the worlds best grapplers. The downside is that his MMA experience is less than Ricardo, and he hasnt always been able to showcase everything...which actually is the plus because most people don't think much of him.

Arona, on the other hand has been a BJJ champ forever, trains with the best BJJ team, is always in tip top condition and has more top notch MMA experience. BUT, many of his wins have come by split decisions in very close fights. His only submissions have come against bad fighters. I don't see him submitting Lister and if he can take Dean out on his feet...well, Ill take my chance in a standup fight against Arona with him as the big favorite.

To me this line is off a good bit, not as big as Swick, but it is the one line that brought something other than a scowl to my face. The issues are that Pride really likes Arona and I get the feeling unless Lister is the clear winner, Ricardo will get the decision. Also a little concerned that Dean is spending too much time on standup striking training vs. grappling/takedown/sprawling.

It is possible that I am not giving Arona enough respect, but I expect a tight battle. I will he hiding from the results, because the excitement is worthless if I see Arona by decision, before I get to watch it.

Wand Silva -385 to win 1unit - Looking for more agression from Silva and a KO win.

probably will post a few more before late Friday night

 

[skillrules]

adding

Vovchanin -280 to win 1unit - If any of you have seen Igor when he burst on the wild Russian MMA scene in the mid 90s as a 195 pound buzzsaw who won an insane 32man tournament, you will know how incredible he is to watch at a lighter weight. He is older, but still can't help but like his chances to finish this fight. Good luck Kondo

 

[gardenweasel]

bro....are you sure you aren`t looking at lister in the same way that you looked at wiuff last week?

i know lister is pretty good,but,i`m told that arona is a better striker and may even be better on the mat...some think arona may be a real dark horse in this tourney....

you aren`t just pulling for a homey, are you?....if you are, that`s cool...

we will have to butt heads a bit here...and i don`t like that...

whatever....respect your opinion....g.l.on silva....

 

[skillrules]

you aren`t just pulling for a homey, are you?....if you are, that`s cool...are you sure you aren`t looking at lister in the same way that you looked at wiuff last week?

Yeah, Im sure. Its a legit question, but Im one of those guys that is more likely to fade his home team than bet with them. As far as picks, I would compare it more to the Van Arsdale - Marsh pick. I had more info on Mike and John than the average person. I've known John since the Neutral Grounds days. The Wiuff pick was a kick to the cahones lol and based it a lot on contrarian, vs. what I actually knew he would do. When he came out with the crap about suckers thinking wrestling was what he was going to do, I knew I was ****ed.

The problem with the Lister pick is, if I were just picking who would win with the line being even, I would pick Arona. By I am drooling at his number, because it is off. The only time you've seen me use real strong language on a pick was Swick, and I cant use that here. So there is no way I would recommend someone changing if they like Arona. I cant wait for this one, just wish it was live, it is not the same when you know the fight has already happened and can look up the results. After seeing the fight, we can judge if I overated Deans skills.

Now the issue is, these other 4 fights that the favorite is no greater than -160. A lot of potential for profits, you have any thoughts? Ive teeter-tottered on the Hendo fight a few times trying to picture how I see the fight going.



MMA 2005 Record 19 - 3 86% +16 units
underdogs 5 - 1

UFC 52 record 5 - 2 (+2.5units)
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=187578

UFC TUF Finale = 3-0 (+5 units)
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=186788

Pride Fists of Fire = 3 - 0 (+3 units)
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=180549

UFC 51 = 8 - 1 (+5.5 units)
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=178342

 

[gardenweasel]

i hear you...just trying to pick the brains of the knowledgable in the sport....and that`s you......

i try not to let the number shade a pick,but,sometimes that`s impossible.....i wouldn`t lay almost 3-1 on arona(i seldom if ever lay 3-1 on anything...lol)....that`s why i parlayed him...

i can see where you`d say that getting almost 3-1 is value...

i`m a strong believer in strength of opposition...and i was impressed with arona`s effort vs rampage.....it could be tight...

btw...skill...i may play small on hendo....based on second hand info...a great wrestler...will be tough to submit...he has a win over big nog....and has fought pratically everyone of note drawing breath....

like many other fights on this card,could go either way....

this card is a frickin` nightmare to cap...i see some people picking silva to lose....

hell for a gambler....heaven for a fan....

thanks for your take...much appreciated as always.....

 

[skillrules]

Dan Henderson -120 (MVP) to win 1unit- I started thinking about how sick Dan was before his last fight, that they had to pull an IV out of his arm and send him out there to fight. The guy has heart and the skill and experience to match. Nog2 has a reach advantage and has been working boxing, has the long, lean, strong legs that are great for sweeps, submissions and keeping opponents on top from keeping base. Should be a barn-burner and I know Ill get my moneys worth from Hendo regardless.

Good Interview with Lister:
http://www.sherdog.com/news/interviews.asp?n_id=2713

Arona is now over a 3-1 favorite on Pinnacle.

 

[gardenweasel]

skill...i just saw some pictures.....

whoa...lister`s head is the size of a small suitcase....he looks like an ex-boxer i met named jack o`halloran many years ago...good dude...he was enormous...

looks like you could hit lister with a 2x4 and the 2x4 gets the worst of it...lol



scary lookin dude..

 

[skillrules]

lol You wouldnt recognize him from a few years ago. He always had the chin that stuck out, but he really blew up. No idea what he took or has been taking lately. Arona looks sinister himself. Could end up being a slow fight, since I think they both prefer to counter, hard to say.

.5 unit on Randleman +120 (MVP)

Belfort -140 to win .5 unit (MVP)

Rampage -164 to win .5 unit(Pinn, could have got a better number early)

With Randleman, if he wants to stand and swing, Nakamura won't be able to get him down. But there is no more disappointing fighter than Kevin, he never improves, although most of the time he has a huge quickness and athletic advantage in his fights. I remember when everyone was on him to beat Sak, but the bandwagon sure has fallen apart since. If Kevin doesnt get winded and shows some heart if he gets hit, he can get it done. Big IFs of course.

Belfort: going to go with the experience vs. the height and reach. Vitor can probably control the ground if he plays it safe.

Rampage: this was another fight that I was getting to the point of over-thinking, but then I figured Q would do a little better this time than vs. the brother and take the win.

small bets, tough fights and lines.

Kept myself from betting too big, in case the shit hits the fan, I dont give too many units back.

 

[skillrules]

Sorry to anyone who went with me, I ate a dick. :scared Seemed like most of my picks gassed or quit at some point, obviously Rampage was saying his rib was broken. Had a shot with 3-1 dog Lister and he just couldnt get it done.

 

[jng]

ate a dick

ate a dick

I am way ahead on the 'tailing I've done on your picks. This weekend's picks ate it. Next weekend will be great.
Thanks for your work.

J

 

[skillrules]

Even the wins were horseshit. Igor diving back into Kondos guard was about as frustrating as anything.

Dean getting cut while in a good position and also not being able to take advantage of the mount with a minute to go the 1st round was bunk.

Hendo gassing... Rampage looking at his corner after taking a few shots and saying his rib was broken.

f?ck

Pride ** Championships:
2 - 5 -3.1units.

 

[gardenweasel]

man...this was a tough card...i hit the parlay....but,i was unimpressed with arona and silva....lost a small play on hendo(why was he gassed so early in the bout?)....and hit a small play on shogun rua going on the theory that something`s been wrong with jackson after seeing him horrible vs ninja rua.....and he looked the same way tonight.....shogun ran him out of the ring...

jackson can be overwhelmed...and can`t defend knees...

not as impressive a show as i had hoped...

 

[Dan Bernadino]

Sorry to anyone who went with me, I ate a dick. :scared Seemed like most of my picks gassed or quit at some point, obviously Rampage was saying his rib was broken. Had a shot with 3-1 dog Lister and he just couldnt get it done.

Just want to say that this did indeed seem like a difficult card, on the bright side, you're still well in profit from your previous MMA picks and I hope that you'll continue to post them.
All the best

:clap: