Michelob ULTRA Open

[Stanley]

Outright play (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Shi Hyun Ahn to finish in the top-five 17.5/1 @ Centrebet and SuperOdds
Considering that she has eight top-5 finishes in 31 LPGA Tour starts, that's a pretty good ratio for these odds. It may be an impressive field, but she has done it before, e.g. runner-up in one of last year's major championships, the McDonald's LPGA Championship. Now that she has completed her rookie season on this Tour, she should play even better now that she has some experience of the courses and conditions and that included a 16th place finish last year. In her last two events, she has recorded her best finish of the year to date, the last time out closing with a 63 to finish 3rd in the LPGA Takefuji Classic, so it is clearly not poor form that is driving these odds.

 

[phar lap]

72 hole matchup


Paula Creamer -110 vs Mi-Hyun Kim
at Centrebet

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Kerr 12/1 E/W W/O Sorenstam @ Skybet
Hee-Wan Han 6.25 to place top 5 @ Cbet

 

[Stanley]

Further outright plays (total stake per plays: 1.5pts)

Lorena Ochoa to win 9/1 @ SkyBet ['w/o Sorenstam' market]
Here is a player who finishes 2nd more than she should, so the 'w/o Sorenstam' market looks the best option, particularly as she is generally 10/1 when Sorenstam is included. She has finished 2nd in three of her last five starts and 2nd in the two years at this course. She ranks 2nd to Sorenstam on the Money List, so if the form book counts for anything, she should finish 2nd this week and win this category.

Juli Inkster to win 20/1 e.w. @ GolfingGods ['w/o Sorenstam' market]
Inkster has certainly rediscovered her form in the last month or so. After looking like a player whose best years were behind her for some time, she has finished 3rd, 7th and 6th in her last three starts. Add in finishes of 8th and 2nd in the two years here and she certainly looks like another player who should at least be in the running for second place this week.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup play (1.5pts):

Jeong Jang to beat Christina Kim -111 @ Centrebet and SuperOdds
Opposing Kim again even though she did finish 3rd last week. Given that her previous best this year had been 20th, her poor form is clear. So much so that it was only the second time since October (14 common events) that Jang has failed to finish ahead of Kim. But as she also finished in the top-10, her form is good enough to maintain her current run of beating Kim in six times out of every seven.

May have more plays if Five Dimes release lines.

 

[Stanley]

Further matchup play (3pts)

Shi Hyun Ahn to beat Heather Bowie -147 @ Five Dimes
Bowie has shown some form recently, but Ahn is the far better player and that is evident from her 18-5-0 h2h record against Bowie. And while Ahn was finishing 16th last year, Bowie missed the cut. The odds may be short, but not short enough for the imbalance in this match.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

2nd rd
Mathew +110 over Gulbis
Young Kim +110 over Davies
Jones +110 over Rosales

--very bad weather wind-rain-cold.
Went with several pm tees at + odds--gonna be bad all day and pm have good shot at playing this rd or part of it tomorrow in MUCH better conditions.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Well I'll be dipped in shit--a possibilty I never thought of-- play 3 1/2 hours and say aw shucks ladies go on in we won't count these strokes.

from the official--
Q. Why wash out the round?
JIM HALEY: We just felt like it was going to be based on the weather predictions, it supposed to be really nice tomorrow and even nicer on Sunday. We knew we weren't going to go back out today, most likely because we are still expecting rain for next three or four hours. Having said that, we just didn't feel like it was going to be fair. Some players that didn't tee off yet were going to come tomorrow and play in sunshine. We just didn't feel like that was fair to the field. We did have an opportunity based on the predicted weather to make that decision.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
FAIR???--ever here of rub of the green--??? Wonder if they let Annika play her 1st rd over--for tv week end revenue--Sheez, might have to buy these back in am depending on weather.

 

[phar lap]

I agree DTB. Absolutely pathetic. Nearly all golf tournaments are affected by weather conditions, quite often affecting some more than others. That IS the very nature of golf (ie the rub of the green).

Of course I am a little biased because my match play, which was 3 shots down after round 1, had started to look quite good (last I saw Creamer and Kim were square before they stopped play).

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Diaz 25 T4 1234 B365

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Won't buy back--they'll start in 42 degree wind chill-and should have some adverse expectations from yesterdays exposure.

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -4.50pts

Ahn 8th
Ochoa 50th
Inkster 8th

Ahn was in the top-5 most of the week, getting as high as 2nd and looked set to save the week until a double-bogey on the 13th hole. Good recovery from Inkster after playing in the worst of the weather in the delayed 2nd round, but just finished short of a place finish.

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 2-0-0; +4.50pts

Jang/Kim WON by 5
Ahn/Bowie WON by 9

Thankfully the matchups saved the outrights on this Tour ... maybe I should write the summary before the event even starts as it seems to happen every week!

LPGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 6-20; -6.63pts
Matchups: 19-5; +39.57pts

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Sheez Stan, ole Murph was on you this week.Four selections right in there to the end. Super bad beat on Ahn at tremendous odds as well as Khan.