NCAA Hoops Futures

[Bombs]

I played a bunch of futures at Pinny for NCAA Hoops on the 5th and 6th of April. The prices have really dropped on these and some of them are really low elsewhere. I realize that a lot of things can happen between now and March, but I think I will add value with these horses. Here were my selections. 500 bucks was the max.

UCONN +1854 (500 to win 9270)
UCONN +1676 (500 to win 8380)

Forget Villanueva, Huskies will be absolutely loaded next year. Experience and talent all over the court. This 18-1 is an absurd price. I think they are like 13-1 now at Pinny, like 6.5-1 at Olympic.

Texas +2911 (500 to win 14555)

Despite Barnes, this team will be absolutely loaded with talent and experience next year. This is bargain basement. 10-1 at Olympic now.

Nova +2071 (500 to win 10335)
Nova +1874 (250 to win 4685)

Easily could have won it this year and have everyone back. They are going to be scary, scary good next year. Only thing that can bite them in the ass is if they all read their own clippings over the summer and get worse. Won't be the first time I have seen that happen.

Oklahoma +1504 (250 to win 3760)

I see them as a fly in the ointment, so I played them small. Have a lot of talent back and it might be Sampson's year.

Some of the numbers up are totally whacked. Illinois at about 15-1 to 20-1? They might not even make the tournament. Kansas at 14-1? Ridiculous, look at their roster. Carolina will have defections. And no team with Shavlik Randolph will be winning the NC anytime soon.

I like my chances with these horses. Only a 2500 risk, and value potential for big profits is certainly there.

 

[Sun Tzu]

Save your 250 on OU.

 

[Bombs]

Save your 250 on OU.

Yeah, I threw 'em in and a good price and to cover it, just in case it happens.

What do you think about the other 3?

 

[lowell]

don't shed any tears just yet for duke. shavlik will not play more than 15 minutes a game and come off the bench. if sheldon stays duke will be loaded. expect by january a starting lineup of sheldon and mcroberts with reddick and nelson on the wings. paulus will be point guard. off the bench dockery and pocius[ who may be as good a shooter as reddick if he stays at duke instead of signing european contract] will provide guard play and melchionni,mcclure,boykin[ going to be very good 4 yr player] on the wings and boatneg, randolph and johnson will be providing bench minutes underneath. once again i repeat that if sheldon stays duke will be number one for more weeks next year than any other team. they may even sign another player if a scholarship opens up[mcclure may transfer and johnson has graduated and may or may not attend grad school]. in 2006 they are in the running for 3 or 4 of the best 15 players in the country. henderson,scheyer,ellington and zoubek may sign with duke. next year duke will have the deepest team in the country and they will have a very good year. good news for duke fans and bad news for duke bashers.

 

[lowell]

if its true that felton and may will sign with agent and marvin will be next unc at 650 to win next year's title might be worth a fade. if i put up 6500 to win a 1000 i will be getting about 15 percent on my money.

 

[Bombs]

I ended up covering with Duke as well at 7-1 for a nickel to win 3500. Makes the total outlay 3 dimes, but I still love this 5 pack.

 

[pt1gard]

when i saw nc rats leaving USS Tareheel couple days ago, I shopped around and saw Duke had dropped significantly, then took them at 9/1 at sportsbook.com

gl, gregg

ps love their incoming frosh--if sheldon stays Duke should make final 4 anyway, then one can always hedge

 

[Bombs]

when i saw nc rats leaving USS Tareheel couple days ago, I shopped around and saw Duke had dropped significantly, then took them at 9/1 at sportsbook.com

gl, gregg

ps love their incoming frosh--if sheldon stays Duke should make final 4 anyway, then one can always hedge

I wont play at Sportsbook.com anymore as they slow pay like crazy and their service sucks, but they occasionally have very weak prop lines such as that one. The 7-1 was the best I could get at my 7 outs, it was at 5dimes.

 

[pt1gard]

uw husky news ... 40/1 seems like decent small investment for a #of reasons ...

Losing Nate wont be a blow IMO ... they have ryan appleby for PG (redshirt coming in) and from all i heard he was awesome in practice all year ... my sources say Martell Webster will come to UW (tho i thought he wouldnt) instead of opting nba ... they also have jon brockman coming in, the best prep in the state and made various top notch all star games, hes big and rugged, exactly what they need ...

of concern is UW top ass. coach, ken bone, taking port st job this week ... he will be missed ...

anyhow, thats what i see out here in seattle

 

[gjn23]

dont see uw getting a high seed, thus having a very hard time winning it all.....see the pac-10 as very competitive next year (stan-oregon-ucla-uw-ua)...with the high end team being a 2-3 seed with most being in the 4-5-6 range.....hell Arizona was awesome this year and got a #3 seed...dont see anybody being as good as uw-ua were last year.

losses will hurt, and i hear that webster will go pro (hopefully for us arizona fans!)

cant wait til oct 15th!

 

[pt1gard]

my guess was martell would go all along, coaching against him I just got that vibe ... BUT the next best source to himself let it be known he wouldnt go NBA, im still doubting it till i see it ...

the kid is offensively unreal, however, his HS team never made state tourney in his 4 years and he had one of the top JR 5-man in nation with him this year (nephew of nba X-steve hawes) ; ROY has him leaning hard to NC ...

Martell's not a team player so it'll be interesting if he decides to go pro how long it will take for him to figure out he cant shoot with zero passes anymore

 

[gjn23]

as predicted, i see martell declared for the draft (although no agent yet)......bad news for huskie fans, good news for arizona fans!

think uw finds out how hard it is to stay on top as a national power and finished in the 3-5 range in the conf next year.

 

[pt1gard]

hehe i was gonna post that a couple days ago, but forgot... I was told by family member he was goin to school, however, that being said, Martell would prob have to stay at UW 2 years and making it thru academically wasnt going to happen ..

to save face i think he tampered with agents then flipped the script to make it look like he was used ... messy lies ... all that said, Martell cant defend and is a black hole offense staller ... I really think the UW will be better off in long run--course thats a coach talking not a guy who is wowed by treys and reverse jams ... coached against the kid for 4 years, watched him play 20 games at least--he could never once lead his team a state berth, that amazes me ...

 

[Scott4USC]

Might want to throw some coin on the USC Trojans lead by head coach Tim Floyd! I am predicting PETE CARROLL type success for the USC basketball team! :mj07:

On a serious note.

As of right now I like Villanova and Kentucky to win it all. My longshot is UCLA!

 

[AU2001]

Kentucky should have the easiest road to a #1 seed next season as the rest of the SEC will be terrible. Kentucky will coast through conference play.

 

[Bombs]

I don't like Kentucky at all next year, I do think UCLA is a serious sleeper, but they might be 1 year away from serious contender.

 

[AU2001]

You're right. The SEC as a whole will be weak next year in hoops.

 

[Bombs]

You're right. The SEC as a whole will be weak next year in hoops.

Yeah, it will probably be down, but it won't take long for it to get on an uptick again. Kentucky didn't do anything for me this past year (and I cashed repeatedly playing against them) and I think they lose quite a bit with graduations/defections.

I'm hoping one of the paydays come through (UConn, Nova, Texas) but am fulling expecting Ratface Rules to be in full effect next year. At least I cant lose if they win.

 

[bear]

Uconn should be much better this year.........Villanueva is
Gone but not as large an impact player as many thought...IMHO
took a little away from Boones and Rudy Gay's game.. was also very inconsistent.
I like CT...mainly because Rashaad Anderson will be healthy and should return as a go to guy with Rudy Gay ...who should really improve his numbers in a BIG way...Extreme talent there...Further..CT will have 2 high quality guards with a capable freshman backup in Trinity Catholic's Austrie. AJ Price...one of the best prep guards in the country....who can score in bunches and shoot the 3 will replace a walk on and a druggie neither who remain on the team. Along with Marcus Williams that could mean 2 40% 3 point shooters in the backcourt with loads of D and experience down low. .............Rudy Gay was 40% from 3 and Rashaad was also as a soph. ........as was Denham Brown

CT should be VERY tough!!

bear

 

[Bombs]

Uconn should be much better this year.........Villanueva is
Gone but not as large an impact player as many thought...IMHO
took a little away from Boones and Rudy Gay's game.. was also very inconsistent.
I like CT...mainly because Rashaad Anderson will be healthy and should return as a go to guy with Rudy Gay ...who should really improve his numbers in a BIG way...Extreme talent there...Further..CT will have 2 high quality guards with a capable freshman backup in Trinity Catholic's Austrie. AJ Price...one of the best prep guards in the country....who can score in bunches and shoot the 3 will replace a walk on and a druggie neither who remain on the team. Along with Marcus Williams that could mean 2 40% 3 point shooters in the backcourt with loads of D and experience down low. .............Rudy Gay was 40% from 3 and Rashaad was also as a soph. ........as was Denham Brown

CT should be VERY tough!!

bear

I hope so. They will be absolutely loaded. I cannot see a glaring weakness for this squad.