What am I missing???????? NBA FINALS Series Wager

[spits]

OK, as a Pistons fan I will be the first to admit this is gonna be a tough series for Detroit. I was confident heading into the Miami series and took them as a small dog.

However, against the Spurs, this series appears to me at least to be a very tight matchup.

Now I do not think Detroit will waltz through this series and march to the title. But......the only side to wager on in this series if you are looking to make a series wager is on the Pistons. Latest line

SA -266
Det +248

What???????????

Earliest line I saw opened SA -210 and Det +195....then shot up to SA -279 and Det +259.

Like I said, I definitely can see the Spurs being favoured and winning the series. But to lay that kind of chalk I think is foolish. Tons of value in backing the Pistons here.

San Antonio might have the best 8 players when looking at each team's top 8 but Detroit probably has the top 6 when you look at their starters and McDyess off the bench.

Why has the public driven this line way up? Is it because they are convinced after the Spurs disposed of the Suns in 5 that the Pistons will be no match? Or is it because the Pistons barely got by a battered and injured Miami club?

 

[Keith 1]

personally I think the line is that high because the books believe (strongly) that the Spurs will win, and they want as much Pistons $$$ as possible. The Lakers were a 5 to 1 fave last year and lost. Big fave is not going down again this year.

 

[maverick2112]

Simple.......to me Joe Q.Public thinks the western conference is stronger than the eastern.........

They made the same mistake last year.............

Western Conference had a lot of flashy teams that could'nt play defense..........Detroit can........

San Antonio was one of the few western conf playoof teams that can play defense..........should be good series but I wholeheartedly agree .........a large line for 2 pretty even teams........

 

[Scott4USC]

Lakers last year were a 2-man show and Kobe had a poor finals. Shaq was not conditioned enough to play on back to back nights and wasn't fed the ball enough from Kobe. Malone, Lakers 3rd best scorer was severly injured. Payton could not even stay in front of Billups.

Here is a fact! Last year in every playoff series, Pistons faced a team who had a star player injured. This year they beat Pacers with star player out AND beat Miami with Wade injured and Shaq not 100%.

Spurs are a complete team inside and out. Prob. have the best player on court (Duncan) and best defender on court (Bowen). Statistically speaking Spurs have the #1 defense in NBA and Spurs play in WEST where they play HIGH LEVEL offense. In East there are some $hit teams and most Eastern conf. teams don't play high level offense.

Here is another fact.

NO EASTERN CONF. TEAM WON A GAME @SAN ANTONIO! On top of that, Spurs are the #1 home team in NBA and they have a lot more playoff experience than Pistons!

Here is a SUBJECTIVE FACT! :mj07:

IMO, Pistons have not played well consistently. Had poor games against Indiana and Miami. Pistons also struggled offensively against Indiana and Miami. Spurs are a better defensive team than both Indiana and Miami. Are Pistons all of a sudden going to start playing better?

MY #1 REASON SPURS BEAT PISTONS is.......

Pistons are jump shooting team. They do not get easy pts and are not good team inside paint. Ben Wallace is a joke on offense and horrible free throw shooter. Spurs play great defense inside and out. But more importantly, Spurs rebound well. Pistons got many 2nd chance pts against Miami that they won't be getting against Spurs. On top of that, Spurs play better defense than Miami/Indiana/ etc. So if Pistons had trouble offensively and relied heavily on 2nd chance pts, they won't be getting that against Spurs.

Pistons can get hot offensively and win series. I doubt it! Def. don't bet on it. I also would not bet on Pistons staying out of foul trouble. Spurs have Duncan, Ginoble, and Parker who all draw fouls. Duncan and Ginoble are masters at it. All 3 take ball to basket and are relentless in doing so. Pistons are careless with fouls, especially Rasheed Wallace who many media love to tout.

I also have not been hearing how sloppy Pistons can play at times. They had many careless turnovers against Heat and Indiana. Spurs play better defense than Heat and Indiana. Will Detroit have more turnovers against Spurs?

In summary (things against Pistons)

offensive droubts
2nd chance pts
turnovers
can't play well consistently
lack of inside game
no scoring punch off bench
nobody on Spurs seriously injured



FYI!

Pistons played Shaq and Heat. Same Shaq who had monster 1q in every game and then disappeared. Same Shaq who in game 7 only had 2 rebounds in 2h. Same Shaq who in game 7 had same total rebounds as Eldin Campbell had in game 7 (Campbell played 8min. I think). Same Shaq who passed ball to teamates only 7 times during game (funny how he gets touted as great creator for teamates). Same Shaq who is lazy and not mobile on defense. Doesn't help out on defense.

Point being............

Duncan is not Shaq. Detroit will be dealing with a different animal and for 4 quarters. Duncan won't dominate like Shaq did in every 1q, but Duncan will play for all 4quarters and play well on BOTH ENDS of court and rebound for 4 quarters. Duncan also will play a lot more minutes and gets his teamates more involved. Spurs will get ball to Duncan and Duncan will dictate how Spurs run offense. And he must be guarded from outside unlike Shaq. I think Pistons had easier time playing Heat with Shaq vs Spurs with Duncan.

When Horry is in game, both Pistons big men have to move outside paint. Parker and Ginoble eyes will get a lot bigger!

Nobody mentions how much trouble Detroit had with the speed of Wade. Parker is faster than Wade. Not better player but faster. Why isn't that being mentioned?



Detroit is solid team, especially looking at there starting 5 as unit. They have advantages coming into series with Billups and Prince size. However, they are not consistent as a team and rely too heavily on jump shots. Not good sign when facing Spurs. Must play consistent and must get easy baskets. On top of that, Pistons have to play on road for games 1,2, 6, and 7.

I see Spurs winning series in 6 games.

 

[DIRTY Diapers]

Scott,

Parker maybe a little faster, but he is not as EXPLOSIVE as Wade. Wade can jump out of the gym and is stronger than an OX. You mentioned that Detroit cannot get pts in the paint, but when Rasheed wants an easy basket he can post up anybody and nobody can stop him - even Duncan.

Plus, Wallace will play better defense on Duncan than anybody has in the West. These two players know each other very well from college to the NBA. Bowen is probably the best on the ball defender in the NBA. But it is TOTALLY different guarding Rip Hamilton. Ask R. Artest who is a better defender than Bowen - ask any NBA player. Rip USED Artest because he doesn't try and take his man one on one. Nobody moves w/o the ball better than Rip, on top of that, he has the best midrange game in the league.

You're definitely underrating Billups. Parker will absolutely have his hands full guarding Billups. C. Billups can POST him up all day long and Parker will need help constantly in the interior. Plus, he is a great shooter and quick enough to get his shot off.

Ginobili will have trouble getting his shot off against the long arm T. Prince. If T. Prince can take out Kobe (albeit with team defense) he can certainly take out Manu.

This series will come down to Spurs hitting open shots. If they do they win in 6/7? If they don't it will be tough for them to win this series. Also, I agree it is VERY difficult to win in San Antonio. Detroit has a tendency to relax a little bit and I think the Spurs are the hungrier team. Good luck.

Like you I have both sides as well. GL. :clap: :clap:

 

[Cie]

I feel Billups and Prince are the offensive keys to this series.

Home court is a huge deal in the finals due to the 2-3-2 system. Even if Det steals Gm1 or 2 on the road [which I think they will], they'll most likely need to steal another on the road in Gm6 or 7. Unless, of course, Detroit is able to sweep 3 straight @ home.

I played Det +240 for the series, but feel that the most likely outcome is SA in 6 or 7 due to their bigtime homecourt edge.

GL:weed:

 

[Scott4USC]

Scott,

Parker maybe a little faster, but he is not as EXPLOSIVE as Wade. Wade can jump out of the gym and is stronger than an OX. :

I know Wade is better and I do not expect Parker to put up Wade #'s. But my point was Parker can do damage at different moments in game. Parker brings an element that Pistons seem to struggle with. A speedy PG! Pistons could not stay in front of Wade. Parker is faster than Wade (but not more talented). Parker is very good PG but is very dangerous when he is on his game. Problem is he is inconsistent. You saw what he did to Suns when he had advantage with his speed. Not saying he puts up same #'s but he can get job done! Especially playing 4 games at home!

You mentioned that Detroit cannot get pts in the paint, but when Rasheed wants an easy basket he can post up anybody and nobody can stop him - even Duncan.

He doesn't do it. Miami is slow down low in post and Sheed still wouldn't post up consistently. Rasheed had advantage over his defender all series and Rasheed STRUGGLED badly. Why? I don't know. BUt I do know Spurs play better defense down low and they ROTATE! Please do not count on Rasheed, especially when he falls in love with the outside shot. IMO R. Wallace is a talented but over-rated player.

Plus, Wallace will play better defense on Duncan than anybody has in the West.

:mj07: :mj07: :mj07:

You want to make a hat wager on this? I bet you Wallace will not average more pts than Amare Staudimire did against Spurs. In fact, I will give you a hat + $20 if I lose, and you just give me a hat if I win.

Amare attacked Duncan in post consistently and was FLAWLESS from outside. He didn't miss. Both Nash and Amare shot lights out against Spurs. NOBODY on Pistons except for Hamilton shoots lights out consistently.

Bowen is probably the best on the ball defender in the NBA. But it is TOTALLY different guarding Rip Hamilton. Ask R. Artest who is a better defender than Bowen - ask any NBA player. Rip USED Artest because he doesn't try and take his man one on one. Nobody moves w/o the ball better than Rip, on top of that, he has the best midrange game in the league.

Pistons played Spurs twice.

Game 1 Hamilton shot 4-14 and scored 8pts.

Game 2 Hamilton shot 4-12 and scored 11pts. (duncan did not even play this game)

You're definitely underrating Billups. Parker will absolutely have his hands full guarding Billups. C. Billups can POST him up all day long and Parker will need help constantly in the interior. Plus, he is a great shooter and quick enough to get his shot off.

You def. are right but here is my question. Billups was very inconsistent against Miami. Billups had size advantage over Damon Jones as well so why was Billups inconsistent? Same advantage Billups has over Parker he had over Jones. Maybe only difference is Parker is FASTER and will make Billups get back on defense etc.

Ginobili will have trouble getting his shot off against the long arm T. Prince. If T. Prince can take out Kobe (albeit with team defense) he can certainly take out Manu.

Pistons often DOUBLED TEAM Kobe in finals. Not one on one. They singled covered Shaq. Lakers had nobody outside Kobe and Shaq (Malone 3rd best player severely hurt). Spurs have $hit load of players.

Spurs played Pistons twice.

Game 1 Ginoble shot 6-10 and scored 18pts.

Game 2 Ginoble shot 4-6 and scored 14pts. (Duncan did not play)

I'll take those #'s from Ginoble! Ginoble is also well rested for this series and he is player who goes all out. Rest served him good!

This series will come down to Spurs hitting open shots. If they do they win in 6/7?

I agree. Pistons and there great defense couldn't shut down ANYBODY on Heat except in game 7. Heat role players had field day against Pistons. The funny thing is Pistons played Shaq mostly 1 on 1 (especially early in series) so they can't use Shaq as excuse. You saw was Spurs did to Suns. Spurs took away the role players for Suns (Marion who was 3rd team NBA) etc. Suns are much better offensive team than Miami, yet Pistons couldn't shut down anybody on Miami. They better play a lot better against Spurs.

If they don't it will be tough for them to win this series. Also, I agree it is VERY difficult to win in San Antonio. Detroit has a tendency to relax a little bit and I think the Spurs are the hungrier team. Good luck.

I agree. That is problem with Pistons. They don't bring it every game. You thought they would play well against Miami in E. Con. Finals but often they looked sloppy and no intensity. Can't do that against Spurs, especially when Spurs have key games at home. Why do they use HHAAAHH format? Total advantage for Spurs.

I would use.....

HAAHHAH

Like you I have both sides as well. GL. :clap: :clap:

Congrats! :thumb:

Do you make more $$$ with SPurs or Pistons? Or you get same return? Did u hedge? What did u end up doing?

 

[maverick2112]

Lakers last year were a 2-man show and Kobe had a poor finals. Shaq was not conditioned enough to play on back to back nights and wasn't fed the ball enough from Kobe. Malone, Lakers 3rd best scorer was severly injured. Payton could not even stay in front of Billups

Shaq must have been conditioned enough the series before when the Lakers beat the Spurs 4 straight...........

 

[DIRTY Diapers]

Scott,

I never said Wallace would SCORE more points than Amare. He will play better DEFENSE on Duncan than anybody has in the playoffs. He is extremely LONG and knows Duncan well.

Yes, Parker is a little quicker - that is debatable. But Parker cannot FINISH his shots like Wade. Explosive means being able to FINISH. Parker can get into the lane and cause a disruption, but he can't FINISH like Wade.

I don't care what the stats are versus Bowen and Rip. Artest is a better on the ball defender than Bowen. Rip had no problem getting his shot off against Artest. This can be debated, but more players in the NBA agree that Artest is the best on the ball defender. Bowen is great at shutting one-on-one players down... Defending against someone like Rip is totally different.

Kobe wasn't doubled team in the series. Tayshaun played off of him on the perimeter, and if Kobe drove in the lane the whole defense would collapse on him. It was TEAM defense. Ginobili will drive the lane and the defense will collapse like they did versus Kobe.

I actually have more money on Detroit - I wish I had more money on the Spurs, because I DO think they will win. Just playing some devils advocate. GL - I l hate the NBA, but love the finals.

GL

Wallace is not overrated... He does have a tendenacy to relax. But when he is on there is probably only five players in the whole league who create more of a mismatch for anyone.

 

[Scott4USC]

DIRTY Diapers

Sorry, I misread your post. Thought you said offensively. Yeah you are right Wallace will play better defense. But will he get into foul trouble? I am guessing he won't be on the court a whole lot to play great defense.

Yes I agree Parker can't finish like Wade but its not like Parker "can't" finish. Parker can get job done. He doesn't need to carry a team like Wade. Parker is very good driving to basket and taking ball from one end of court to other for easy basket. Forces opposing team to hustle back on defense. I just wish Parker be more consistent from outside.

I dunno who is better defensively Artest or Bowen. Maybe Artest is. If Bowen shuts down RIP better than Artest, doesn't mean Bowen is better. Bowen gets the job done with Spurs and he also has great help defense with Spurs. Spurs only ask Bowen to play defense and hit couple wide open treys. Thats his role. Bowen doesn't use energy on offense, Artest does.

Kobe wasn't doubled team in the series. Tayshaun played off of him on the perimeter, and if Kobe drove in the lane the whole defense would collapse on him. It was TEAM defense. Ginobili will drive the lane and the defense will collapse like they did versus Kobe.

Kobe was doubled teamed most of the time. Maybe standing near 3pt line he wasn't but anytime Kobe dribbled he was doubled.

Wallace is not overrated... He does have a tendenacy to relax. But when he is on there is probably only five players in the whole league who create more of a mismatch for anyone.

THEN WHY THE F*** IS HE SO INCONSISTENT? If he is so good, and creates so many mismatches, why is he so freaking inconsistent? You can't depend on him. EASTERN CONF. FINALS he had what, 2 good games out of 7? IMO, he is very talented but over-rated. He is very good player but people talk too highly about him.

He doesn't shoot high % from outside, doesn't like to shoot inside, gets in foul trouble etc. That is NOT a "great" player. Good player who might be VERY talented but not a "great" player. People talk as if he is a "great" player. I don't see it.

Now go watch R. Wallace have super series and make me lose my Spurs wager!